Yoda's not kidding about home values. I work in the Mortgage industry and areas all along the Great lakes and the western sections on NE America are seeing home values tank. It typically the homes older than 20 years in areas like Michigan, Milwakee, to Albany are dropping 20-50% in value. The problem from my industry is threefold. If this has been beaten to death in other threads, sorry!
First as mentioned above lower home values, if a avg home valued at 100K is now valued at 60K, most institutions will not deal with anything that small. Second the switch by major credit card companies to raising minimum payments from 1 or 2% to 3-5%. Now Joe and Jane America must cough up $700 a month for credit card payments instead of 400 a month(est 12 credit cards in a house old with a balance of $35K). Finally Ch 7 Bankrupcy. About 1 out of every 2 credit reports I look at has a CH7 in the last 10 years where $30,000 of unsecured debt is just written off. Now folks with Credit card debt or got stuck behind the 8ball with medical bills cannot just do a 7 like they could before. So they go to the equity in their house. Not every house is going down. States like California, New Jersey, Florida and some New England states are seeing 20% annual increases in appraisal values. It's almost like a Pyramid of cards ready to fall. Thankfully my area in N.Dallas has "cooled off". I bought my house in 1999 for $95K and in the summer of 2004 it appraised for $135K. The market has cooled off some and it's more like 120K today.
PeakOil is You
Bored of Peak Oil
Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by PrairieMule » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 15:56:58
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
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PrairieMule - Expert
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by FatherOfTwo » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 14:14:20
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yoda', 'b')obcousins and other optomists:
You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.
You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.
Yoda, I’m sorry to hear about your situation. It makes me mindful that in many ways I’m just a terrible accident away from having my life turned upside down.
I’m adamant in my posts here that we’ll go through some wrenching times before we realize mass changes must be made. Only then with hard work and luck will we start to see some stabilization. Of course, the wrenching times means real impacts to many, many people. But peak oil or not, this has been the story throughout all time. There always are people who aren’t as fortunate as others. But you are still in an enviable position…. I assume you would rather have your life then, for instance, be living in Africa in a war torn, poor region.
On the bright side, there will be opportunities once peak oil becomes evident. You are ahead of the curve, you know about peak oil, take advantage of that! Take the opportunity to improve your own personal situation because when it comes down to it, that’s all the majority of us can do… that and educate others. Consider moving. Perhaps get some training in areas that will see increases in demand, etc. Whatever makes the most sense for your conditions.
We can either say “woe is me”, or we can get motivated and do something about it.
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FatherOfTwo - Tar Sands
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by yoda » Sat 21 Jan 2006, 21:20:48
Hi everyone. I have been very busy for the past week, but am happy to see that this discussion has continued with great input from everyone.
Fatheroftwo, I could not agree more! I may have come off with a "woe is me" attitude, but that is not how I am feeling. I expressed my woe only to make a point, and did not intend to convey that I am sitting around feeling sorry for myself. I fully recognize that the majority of the world would be thrilled to live in my present circumstance.
I have decided that changes need to be made, and am actually grateful to have the knowledge that I need to make those changes. I know that I am not alone, and that everyone will suffer in the coming times, but those of us who know and can prepare will be the better for it.
I have scraped together every bit of money I can, and have begun to equip myself and my family for a complete change of lifestyle. Have purchased heirloom seeds, a pressure cooker, and canning supplies. Plan to hit the yard sales this spring and buy as much canning equip. as I can find. My entire yard, 1/2 acre, will become a gardenthis year, and I will spend next fall learning to can or dry, and then store the harvest.
We have been deciding how best to divide up the house, living in only a small section during the winter. A woodstove is the next purchase to be made. Will spend the summer clearing wood off of my parents land, and hope to have enough for next winter. Not sure where wood will come from long term, but can get it from their land for as long as I can get fuel to drive there, and the trees last!
We will dig a well this summer, with a hand pump.
I will sell my car, even though we owe more on it than it is worth. This will save in insurance and fuel, and we can pay off the balance of the loan in 1 year. Will then only have a beat up old diesel truck, which is cheap to insure, and cheap to drive. We already plan every trip anywhere, and each trip out has multiple purposes.
It is my assumption that in a few years, I will be able to purchase no fossil fuels, either due to price or lack of availability. Don't know what will happen then in terms of work and money. I would hate to lose the house. I can not sell it now, as it is worth less than I owe, and I can not pay back this mortgage balance plus take on a new one. My hope is that by the time that we can not drive and work, the same will be the situation for everyone else, thus the bank will not care to take my house. What will they do with it? I hardly think the banks want millions of homes with no buyers.
We have started to be staple food in bulk, and are storing it for long term. Stuff like flour, sugar, etc. Hope to acquire year or twos worth for when we can't get more.
I mean, seriously, no one knows what this will look like as it all plays out, but I dare say I wil be better prepared than many.
Someone earlier asked me what I thought about fuel allocation, and nuclear power, both before and after my current situation.
I was scared of nuclear power then, and am still scared of it! My best friend moved to the three mile island area two weeks before the accident. I was only 10 at the time, and remember being terrified, thinking she was gonna die, etc. Never got over it. May be irrational, especially given the current situation, but I do not like it. I do not think we will get our act in time to go that route anyway, and that is actually fine with me. I would rather live like Laura Ingalls than be scared all the time.
Fuel allocation seems like a great idea, depending on who is doing the allocating! If it was fair and equitable, that would be great, but I have zero faith in TPTB to be fair and equitable.
I may be a doomer, but if I mentally and physically prepare for the worst, then that should serve me well no matter what happens!
Fatheroftwo, I could not agree more! I may have come off with a "woe is me" attitude, but that is not how I am feeling. I expressed my woe only to make a point, and did not intend to convey that I am sitting around feeling sorry for myself. I fully recognize that the majority of the world would be thrilled to live in my present circumstance.
I have decided that changes need to be made, and am actually grateful to have the knowledge that I need to make those changes. I know that I am not alone, and that everyone will suffer in the coming times, but those of us who know and can prepare will be the better for it.
I have scraped together every bit of money I can, and have begun to equip myself and my family for a complete change of lifestyle. Have purchased heirloom seeds, a pressure cooker, and canning supplies. Plan to hit the yard sales this spring and buy as much canning equip. as I can find. My entire yard, 1/2 acre, will become a gardenthis year, and I will spend next fall learning to can or dry, and then store the harvest.
We have been deciding how best to divide up the house, living in only a small section during the winter. A woodstove is the next purchase to be made. Will spend the summer clearing wood off of my parents land, and hope to have enough for next winter. Not sure where wood will come from long term, but can get it from their land for as long as I can get fuel to drive there, and the trees last!
We will dig a well this summer, with a hand pump.
I will sell my car, even though we owe more on it than it is worth. This will save in insurance and fuel, and we can pay off the balance of the loan in 1 year. Will then only have a beat up old diesel truck, which is cheap to insure, and cheap to drive. We already plan every trip anywhere, and each trip out has multiple purposes.
It is my assumption that in a few years, I will be able to purchase no fossil fuels, either due to price or lack of availability. Don't know what will happen then in terms of work and money. I would hate to lose the house. I can not sell it now, as it is worth less than I owe, and I can not pay back this mortgage balance plus take on a new one. My hope is that by the time that we can not drive and work, the same will be the situation for everyone else, thus the bank will not care to take my house. What will they do with it? I hardly think the banks want millions of homes with no buyers.
We have started to be staple food in bulk, and are storing it for long term. Stuff like flour, sugar, etc. Hope to acquire year or twos worth for when we can't get more.
I mean, seriously, no one knows what this will look like as it all plays out, but I dare say I wil be better prepared than many.
Someone earlier asked me what I thought about fuel allocation, and nuclear power, both before and after my current situation.
I was scared of nuclear power then, and am still scared of it! My best friend moved to the three mile island area two weeks before the accident. I was only 10 at the time, and remember being terrified, thinking she was gonna die, etc. Never got over it. May be irrational, especially given the current situation, but I do not like it. I do not think we will get our act in time to go that route anyway, and that is actually fine with me. I would rather live like Laura Ingalls than be scared all the time.
Fuel allocation seems like a great idea, depending on who is doing the allocating! If it was fair and equitable, that would be great, but I have zero faith in TPTB to be fair and equitable.
I may be a doomer, but if I mentally and physically prepare for the worst, then that should serve me well no matter what happens!
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yoda - Wood
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by jaws » Fri 27 Jan 2006, 22:39:08
So much for Kunstler's theory that small upstate NY towns would be the safest. 
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jaws - Heavy Crude
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by GoIllini » Fri 27 Jan 2006, 23:50:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yoda', 'H')i everyone. I have been very busy for the past week, but am happy to see that this discussion has continued with great input from everyone.
Fatheroftwo, I could not agree more! I may have come off with a "woe is me" attitude, but that is not how I am feeling. I expressed my woe only to make a point, and did not intend to convey that I am sitting around feeling sorry for myself. I fully recognize that the majority of the world would be thrilled to live in my present circumstance.
I have decided that changes need to be made, and am actually grateful to have the knowledge that I need to make those changes. I know that I am not alone, and that everyone will suffer in the coming times, but those of us who know and can prepare will be the better for it.
I have scraped together every bit of money I can, and have begun to equip myself and my family for a complete change of lifestyle. Have purchased heirloom seeds, a pressure cooker, and canning supplies. Plan to hit the yard sales this spring and buy as much canning equip. as I can find. My entire yard, 1/2 acre, will become a gardenthis year, and I will spend next fall learning to can or dry, and then store the harvest.
Fatheroftwo, I could not agree more! I may have come off with a "woe is me" attitude, but that is not how I am feeling. I expressed my woe only to make a point, and did not intend to convey that I am sitting around feeling sorry for myself. I fully recognize that the majority of the world would be thrilled to live in my present circumstance.
I have decided that changes need to be made, and am actually grateful to have the knowledge that I need to make those changes. I know that I am not alone, and that everyone will suffer in the coming times, but those of us who know and can prepare will be the better for it.
I have scraped together every bit of money I can, and have begun to equip myself and my family for a complete change of lifestyle. Have purchased heirloom seeds, a pressure cooker, and canning supplies. Plan to hit the yard sales this spring and buy as much canning equip. as I can find. My entire yard, 1/2 acre, will become a gardenthis year, and I will spend next fall learning to can or dry, and then store the harvest.
Glad to hear that. Gardening is a good, healthy activity that builds discipline. Whether peak oil hits as hard as people gardening because of peak oil think or not, I'm happy for you.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have been deciding how best to divide up the house, living in only a small section during the winter. A woodstove is the next purchase to be made. Will spend the summer clearing wood off of my parents land, and hope to have enough for next winter. Not sure where wood will come from long term, but can get it from their land for as long as I can get fuel to drive there, and the trees last!
Have you thought about installing a solar collector? At the very least, if you get back on your financial feet again if we have a bumpy landing, a solar collector will reduce your heating bill.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') will sell my car, even though we owe more on it than it is worth. This will save in insurance and fuel, and we can pay off the balance of the loan in 1 year. Will then only have a beat up old diesel truck, which is cheap to insure, and cheap to drive. We already plan every trip anywhere, and each trip out has multiple purposes.
That's great. And it's great to be prepared to save fuel in the future, but right now, it's better to use up a gallon of $2.25 gasoline to save $3 somewhere else, for all practical purposes. I know that I could live on just spending money at the local grocery store (and they're in great financial shape), but in the process of driving 10 miles round-trip to the local Meijer, I burn 1/2 gallon of gas to save $10 on food. Meijer's a good grocery store that takes care of its employees, and if I can save $10 and still be responsible in how I buy, I will.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is my assumption that in a few years, I will be able to purchase no fossil fuels, either due to price or lack of availability. Don't know what will happen then in terms of work and money. I would hate to lose the house. I can not sell it now, as it is worth less than I owe, and I can not pay back this mortgage balance plus take on a new one. My hope is that by the time that we can not drive and work, the same will be the situation for everyone else, thus the bank will not care to take my house. What will they do with it? I hardly think the banks want millions of homes with no buyers.
If you see yourself deep in debt in several years, you might want to consider Chapter 11. The difference between Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 is that in Chapter 13, it takes a few years. But once you're done, it's a clean slate in terms of your debt.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have started to be staple food in bulk, and are storing it for long term. Stuff like flour, sugar, etc. Hope to acquire year or twos worth for when we can't get more.
When I was a doomer, I liked pasta. You could get something like 15,000 calories of it for around $5. And Ragu keeps for a long time and doesn't require refrigeration.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') mean, seriously, no one knows what this will look like as it all plays out, but I dare say I wil be better prepared than many.
Good. Seeing as Peak Oil could be anything from the end of civilization to just 10 years of a '70s economy, it's great to be ready for anything. IMHO, the best thing that I can do is prepare financially. I want to have oil stocks, utilities, land, and other inflation and recession-resistant assets when peak oil hits.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omeone earlier asked me what I thought about fuel allocation, and nuclear power, both before and after my current situation.
I was scared of nuclear power then, and am still scared of it! My best friend moved to the three mile island area two weeks before the accident. I was only 10 at the time, and remember being terrified, thinking she was gonna die, etc. Never got over it. May be irrational, especially given the current situation, but I do not like it. I do not think we will get our act in time to go that route anyway, and that is actually fine with me. I would rather live like Laura Ingalls than be scared all the time.
