[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'A')greed. The left side is demand driven and subject to political/economical shocks.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'B')ut then why do you think it is modeled so nicely with a Gaussian? What's the connection between economic necessities (producers modulating production to prevent gluts/shortages and ensure stable prices) and that smooth Gaussian shape? Is there some kind of Central Limit phenomenon operating on the demand side?

[backstop]

Khebab -

while parts of the math here go clear over my head, I'm interested to see the progress being made in the reliability of modelling the global supply curve.

I wonder if you'd consider providing, and updating, a "Current Best Estimate" of the decline rate you forsee, with of course such margin-of-uncertainty as you see fit ?

This would give some practical guidance on this critical issue. Of course if you were to say that there are simply too many unknowns (eg civil wars in major producers) I should quite accept that.

regards,

Backstop