by The_Toecutter » Thu 19 Jan 2006, 21:23:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould anyone with any faith in the desireability or relevance of improving vehicles' fuel efficiency PLEASE reconsider the threads on Jevon's Paradox ?
In relation to cars, there is only so much driving a typical person is capable of doing. Someone who drives 20,000 miles per year by car is spending about 2-3 hours per day in their car for each day of typical use. Unless they're a cab driver, provide a service(like cable TV, repair phone lines, ect.), or a semi truck driver, they're not going to be driving much more than that, as the time to do so doesn't exist and/or the vastly diminishing returns that would result by wasting ones life behind the wheel like such. People with 100 mile round trip commutes tend to fit this model, and yes, people do exist with even larger commutes, but they are very rare and probably won't ever beome the mainstream, even if travel by vehicle were free.
For some things, Yevon's paradox has its limits, and even in this wasteful society, we have approached the limits of per capita auto usage. The typical American is now driving about 12,000 miles per year. If they were to increase that to 20,000 miles per year(2-3 hours of spent in a car per day), a realistic fleet fuel economy increase to 50 mpg(done through better aerodynamics. No hybrid powertrains, composites, reductions in engine horsepower, or vehicle downsizing needed, but if those things are done, mpg could go well above 100), along with some biofuel powered vehicles and pure EVs offered to consumers, there'd still be very tremendous cuts in oil consumption.
Say 100 mpg cars and/or electric cars become the norm and cost about 1/4 to operate per mile as the current car fleet. Do you really think the average person would drive ~50,000 miles per year? They'd be spending 6 hours per day of their lives in their cars.
Further, no one in their right mind would support auto dependence as it is today in the U.S.; mass transit, would it be commonly available, frequent, and cheap, would displace a lot of car use. When car ownership becomes an option instead of a need, less cars will be bought and the cars that are owned will usually be driven less. Note America's vehicle ownership in the 1920s to 1940s, when mass transit was widely available, far more convenient than to today, and cheap, compared to car ownership and use after the auto industry and oil industry bought out the trolley systems and dismantled them. Car ownership and use hit a limit of about 1 car for every 3 people with about 5,000 miles per year per car, even before the great depression, and this plateau in ownership per person of driving age and in miles travelled by car per year stayed until the mass transit system was eliminated.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')oes that mean we can build suburbs even farther out now?
Sprawl and the automobile are two seperate entities. Suburbs existed and were formed in the late 1800s, well before every family had a car. How'd they get there and back to work and the markets? Electric trolleys served that purpose just fine. After the trolleys were killed, those in the suburbs needed a way to get around, hence the car. This was much to the pleasure of the auto and oil companies and the Federal Government. Forced car dependence grew the economy even more and brought more money to these industries(at the expense of the people, of course). Add in subsidies for the highway system and for suburban living paid for by non car users and city dwellers, and consumption was encouraged even more by means entirely artificial and completely outside of the merits of various transportation options and lifestyles.