by jdmartin » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 12:22:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')No, the ruling class is interested in a lot more then merely survival. They want power. They want to keep their high standard of living. You are dreaming if you think otherwise. When/if TSHTF, the ruling class will do what they can to stay in power and to stay wealthy. Can you honestly argue otherwise? The way to stay rich isn’t to only worry about your own survival. They way to stay rich is to ensure that those below you can afford to keep you rich. If those below you all move into poverty, then you too will fall from the luxury lifestyle. This is the reason that OPEC strives to keep oil prices affordable; it’s bad for business to send the countries they sell to broke. Therefore the logical approach for the rich will be to invest in any and all schemes that offer any potential solutions.
P.S. The site’s that many people here quote in their signatures are cute. Mass die-off, chaos and the end of the world they apparently so hate? Keep dreaming. It really helps. I find these scenarios as ridiculous as uninformed people find the prospect of making money from space.
This post unfortunately ignores the vast treasure chest of history that shows that, in fact, the reality is the rich consistently fail to act in their own self-interest until it is too late to do so. Two obviously glaring examples: the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution. The Roman nobility refusing to ante up more money to pay for continued border protection by Roman legions and mercenaries, until the unpaid troops marched on and sacked the Roman cities. Confederate states would not pony up any money for "the cause", leaving troops barefoot, starving, and deserting in hordes.
You can look at plenty of examples today to find the same thing, because you cannot get those with wealth all on the same page to act in self interest - the greed prevents it from happening. For example, self interest for the TPTB would state that it is in their interest for the vast majority of us to keep consuming like madmen in order to continue lining their pockets. However, the reality is that there has been a continued effort to undermine the ability of the masses to maintain this consumeristic surge, all for the sake of a few extra bucks now. How? Ship all our good jobs to China and send us to Wallyworld making a few bucks an hour less. Pass bankruptcy laws that prevent lots of people from "clearing the books", so to speak, and beginning consumption anew. Maintain ridiculously low minimum wage standards. Break unions. The list goes on and on. The rich will continue to act in their own personal self-interest (read: give me a few more bucks now, to hell with the future) until it all comes tumbling down around them. Sadly, I believe this is probably human nature in a nutshell.
PS: While I agree there are some ridiculously doomer people here, I think your thought that we'll save the world with miniature technology and space mining is goofily optimistic. Unfortunately, this is the trouble with most things today - it's all or nothing. Either we're all eating shoe leather next year to survive, or we're blasting off to our 6-hour commute as mining supervisor on Moon mining quarry #4. Where have all the sensible people gone?
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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by Omnitir » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 21:31:55
Firstly – I apologise for derailing the thread. If this discussion about space continues, perhaps a moderator would like to send this new discussion to another forum – maybe the technology forum would be more appropriate?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '
')Either we're all eating shoe leather next year to survive, or we're blasting off to our 6-hour commute as mining supervisor on Moon mining quarry #4. Where have all the sensible people gone?
This is the problem – it’s what’s holding us back. People have these preconceptions about things. “Electric cars are silly. Nuclear power will kill us all. Space is for Star Trek dreamers.” Preconceptions based on nothing more then widespread uninformed assumptions that many people have. The thing is, the reason certain technological solutions aren’t implemented isn’t because of any technical feasibility, but because of wide-scale misconceptions. It’s attitudes like “yeah right, we’ll all go live in space. Heh.” that prevent simple steps forward. I’m not talking about colonising space (though that could happen one day). I’m saying we could begin simple industrial processes with current technology that will greatly change world economics, and greatly reduce our dependence of fossil fuels. It’s slowly happening now, but it would have happened already if the general public and general politics wasn’t so full of false preconceptions about space, just as wide scale nuclear power, or mass transit, or electric cars, or any number of other potential solutions, could have also happened long ago if it weren’t for misguided beliefs and preconceptions. Technology isn’t the problem; it’s people’s attitudes.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '
')While the 'space' thing, (like a lot of other optimistic ideas and solutions that could/should be possible if there was any common sense or decency left in the worlds controlling powers) sounds good on paper, it's just not going to happen. If we as a species can not collectively make intelligent use of what is available to us now, why should it be any different anywhere else. Without a major change in values and attitudes, we would just end up seeing the same nonsense spread like a plague throughout the rest of the universe. Maybe its just better to let it stop here.
Consider the implications of what you’re saying. We shouldn’t spread our values by utilizing new untapped resources? So if you find gold or oil or some other valuable commodity in you back yard, you would just leave it there for fear of spreading our values to other parts of the world? I’m not talking about Star Trek or something – going through the galaxy and spreading democracy
I’m merely talking about using our existing capabilities to utilise an abundant source of resources that is proven to be within reach.
You say it’s just not going to happen – why? Because the world will fall apart this year or the next? Because the fact is it already is happening. Provided civilization is still afloat for at least another decade, then in around ten years we will establish the beginnings on a new industrial age that will eventually make any resource from the Earth’s crust irrelevant. It will happen, and is happening, because there is a phenomenal amount of money to be made – it’s simply the natural progression of things, provided as I said, that the world doesn’t fall apart in the mean time.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '
')We currently can't/don't even use the space energy that bombards the earth every day for free in an economically viable way. Solar energy, more powerful than anything we can dream up thus far, plays almost no role whatsoever in our energy needs, and we don't pay anything for it. With this in mind, what makes you feel so certain that going to space, which costs money and burns up quite a bit of energy, is the answer to our prayers?
It’s a complex and in-depth issue, making it difficult to answer this question briefly. I’m currently writing a serries of articles about this for POD that will better explain the process, but I’ll try to explain a few things here.
Okay, firstly about solar power, you need to be aware that our atmosphere is of course what keeps us safe from the deadly radiation from the sun. This is great for life on earth, but not so great for solar power – we simply don’t get enough of the good stuff from the sun to produce significant quantities of power with current solar power technology. This isn’t true of space based solar power. A small solar panel or array in orbit generates a massive amount of energy compared with its similar sized counterpart on earth. We know all about this thanks primarily to the comsat industry, which has long used space based solar power to power it’s considerable sized fleet above our heads. Then there is the fact that space solar power is constant, providing it’s high power output non-stop 24/7. So basically to answer your question, employing large scale solar power solutions on earth is not economic. It is however economic to do so in space – provided one crucial thing: we can get them up there cheaply.
“What makes you feel so certain that going to space, which costs money and burns up quite a bit of energy, is the answer to our prayers?” Because it only costs money and burns considerable energy right now, but this won’t always be the case. We can make it far cheaper to do things in space, by establishing a simple space infrastructure.
Consider what NASA is planning with their current moon initiative. They aren’t going to plant a flag, collect some rocks and come back. They are going to begin establishing said infrastructure, so that later missions become cost effective. So too are the other space agencies of the world, and more importantly, several commercial ventures have their sights set on the moon and the near earth asteroids.
Consider a situation where after a couple of years of having established simple infrastructure on the lunar surface (ideally automated), where oxygen, rocket propellant and glass/ceramic materials are refined out of the lunar regolith (a simple process we know we can do) and stored on the moon, later to be sent to earth orbit (launching from the moon is cheap and easy). Consider the potential if in earth orbit large deposits of oxygen, rocket fuel and basic building materials were stored – for one thing launch costs would be drastically reduced. In fact many launches could be completely eliminated, and sending humans into orbit could be done on far more economic commercial based rocketry, such as the spaceshipone design. The construction of space facilities, such as space based solar arrays, could then be achieved very economically.
Now consider the potential if you include near earth asteroids into the scenario. We know we can land on these, and it’s just a matter of time before we can achieve an asteroidal material resource utilisation venture. The possibilities then become enormous. It’s theorised that up to 99% of a space based solar array could be constructed with asteroidal material as is, in earth orbit. Then there is the simple economic value of the rare metals common in asteroids (rare on earth because most of these metals are below the crust). Depending on the size and type of asteroid, the average small near earth asteroid is estimated to be worth several
trillion U.S. dollars. Platinum for example, is believed to be abundant in these rocks. But these high values are virtually irrelevant next to the value of having useful resources available for use in earth orbit. These are what will make the new space based industry feasible.
So you see the point is first establishing basic infrastructure to utilize space resource to make further space programs economic. Once you cut down or even take out the cost of launching from earth, projects in space become not only economic, but immensely prosperous.
All we have to do is keep civilisation together long enough for it to happen.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
by Seadragon » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 21:46:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', ' ')You know, it's not the geology or the economics that's depressing, it's the nature of the human species that makes me conclude we're screwed.
So all the folks who didn't use up their resources don't count as part of "the human species"? All those other cultures, just so much chopped liver to Seadragon...
It's the capacity for denying the obvious that I reacted to. I certainly do admire the people who are trying to live within their means, energy-wise--the Norwegians, for one, and residents of Kinsale Ireland, who aspire to become independent of fossil fuels by 2020.
http://www.fuellingthefuture.org/
by Omnitir » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 07:33:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Still doesn't answer my question why there's not massive floating solar panels beaming down useful energy right now or in the near future
I did answer that: right now it’s still too expensive because we must launch all the materials from Earth. Simply, there are cheaper options, and the cheapest option always wins out. However, in the near future this will change. In the near future basic infrastructure will be established on the lunar surface and in high earth orbit (and possible in NEA orbit) that will dramatically reduce the cost of doing anything in space. Once the construction of a space based solar array (or for that matter a lunar solar array melted onto the surface) can be achieved with a large amount of the construction materials attained from space (and hence cheap because of negating Earth escape costs), space based power systems will be by far the cheapest and most sensible option.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')For now, I have little faith that anything to do with space is going to answer the immediate problems we're going to be facing here in the next 10-20 years.
Within the next 10 years I agree with you. Space won’t save us until the initial infrastructure is established, and that will take around 10 to 15 years (conservative – it could possibly be quicker if things go well). So, as I say, civilisation must keep it together for a few more years before space tech begins to solve our resource and economic problems.
However there is one solution that space can potentially solve right now if we feel the need: global warming. Simple space mirrors, an old technology that the Russians first successfully deployed several decades ago, can easily cool or heat various parts of the world. Though I don’t think the problem is drastic enough yet to warrant wide scale deployment (especially considering the cost). However in a couple of decades the cost will be very low, and space mirrors will potentially be used to adjust temperatures and climates the world over. If rapid climate change does occur though, we do have the capabilities to adjust the Earths temperature. It will just cost a bit for a few more years.
Problems with clean drinking water are another thing that space technology is solving, right now, in this case thanks to years of pouring money into the space shuttle and ISS.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
by Doly » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 09:18:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'I')n the near future basic infrastructure will be established on the lunar surface and in high earth orbit (and possible in NEA orbit) that will dramatically reduce the cost of doing anything in space.
When? How? Where are the projects?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Simple space mirrors, an old technology that the Russians first successfully deployed several decades ago, can easily cool or heat various parts of the world.
At the necessary scale?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Problems with clean drinking water are another thing that space technology is solving, right now, in this case thanks to years of pouring money into the space shuttle and ISS.
How?
by JustinFrankl » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 14:55:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('elroy', 'T')he ruling class has managed to rule the common people in any time, be it as warlords in the past, as kings, counts, dukes and other nobility in medieval times, as the plutocracy we have now, or as the post peak powers that be in the future. As long as someone is alive, they'll be serving the needs of those with the biggest stick.
I'm sorry, but that statement is historically woefully inaccurate, and entirely Civilization-centered. Our hierarchical culture, complete with "ruling class", is only one of literally tens of thousands that have existed on this planet, and is
not the only cultural model even
currently in existence.
Do your homework, Elroy.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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by Omnitir » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 00:11:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'I')n the near future basic infrastructure will be established on the lunar surface and in high earth orbit (and possible in NEA orbit) that will dramatically reduce the cost of doing anything in space.
When?
Over the next 10 to 20 years.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')How?
To start with, by “mining” lunar surface regolith and with simple solar ovens extracting oxygen, rocket fuel and ceramics. Later to be sent to high orbit to be used in place of the launching these essentials from Earth. These are all things we know we can do.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Where are the projects?
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
by Ludi » Wed 25 Jan 2006, 06:18:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Thousands, possibly tens of thousands.
Can you name one?
For starters (from the Americas), most of those listed on this site:
http://www.native-languages.org/languages.htm#alpha
