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Peak "everything"

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Peak "everything"

Postby lutherquick » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 15:14:05

Great, now metals are going to "peak".

http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20060120/ ... sesconcern

No surprise. It's part of exponential growth as Albert Bartlett explained.
"Everything" will peak.

Even the intelligence of humans has seamed to peak.
As if we can't think a little higher and avoid this exponential catastrophe.

Maybe the attention span of humans has reached it's limit. Maybe there is no way out of "peak everything".

Looks to me like humans will follow the DoDo bird and end up extinct.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Sys1 » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 15:27:33

Not only metals, but also fresh water for example.

Something else : as uranium is a metal and currently at 37$, i'm asking myself is this one is subject to peak soon?
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby TITAN » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 15:42:23

The plateau of human intelligence began it's long steady decline in the early sixties...
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Sys1 » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 15:54:47

Is Einstein the peak in homo sapiens sapiens intelligence? Without this guy, the world of today would have been far different (no lasers, so no computers/cell phones/internet/satellites)
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby waegari » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 17:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')omething else : as uranium is a metal and currently at 37$, i'm asking myself is this one is subject to peak soon?


It's no proof, but recently Sigmar Gabriel, the new German Minister for the Environment, argued that uranium is the one energy resource that is going to be depleted first, at an estimated rate of 20 to 60 years. Of course, he's not the first to say this, but still.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')In addition, world-wide uranium deposits will last only for another 20 years in the worst case, according to OECD estimates. There's a maximum reserve of no more than 4 million tonnes of uranium available at present, so it makes no sense to put too many eggs in this particular basket," he said.


from Deutsche Welle, and this one is in German:

"Die Energieressource Uran ist als erste erschöpft", which is the title of the article that you will find, after scrolling down for a bit.

Edit: and btw, peak metal is going to mean on the other hand that wind and solar energy will not be viable on a global scale, much as I already feared.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby joewp » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 18:12:13

I know of one thing that hasn't peaked yet, and is probably going to rise steadily in the near future.

The human capacity for "wishful thinking". :(
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby waegari » Sat 21 Jan 2006, 10:07:22

And then there's a story in the Asia Times, arguing that there's even a chance of a shortage in scrap steel, because of China's economic development, for which the processing of scrap steel is essential.

The article ends on this note:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the real question is, will there be enough scrap to sustain this sort of growth? Many have doubts, and point to a future where the demand for scrap steel will grow faster than the supply, which means supply will remain tight, which means prices for scrap will remain high.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby waegari » Sat 21 Jan 2006, 10:14:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'I') know of one thing that hasn't peaked yet, and is probably going to rise steadily in the near future.

The human capacity for "wishful thinking". :(


One example being Japan, where a new fast breeder is scheduled to go online in 2045, see Japan Times. So, if Gabriel is right, there will not even be any uranium left to reprocess anymore..
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby AmericanEmpire » Sat 21 Jan 2006, 20:16:36

I say we'll hit peak suicide rates after the peak. :lol:
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby threadbear » Sat 21 Jan 2006, 20:41:32

The don't worry, be happy crowd. Guys, guys, guys. See why peak oil is so great? People have to cut back on everything and entertain themselves with their own bodies and minds. You put an Indian yogi in a completely empty room with just a little piece of string and he can amuse himself for hours! Now, peak string--THAT would be a problem!
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby firasat » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 01:29:30

Ultimately we will also get "peak human population" or peak "living standards" or both. All the other peaks will just be nature's way of correcting our unsustainable, human infestation of the planet. The growth of our species alone contributes to an average annual increase in oil conusmption of 1 million b/d. Why? because world population has been growing at around 80 million humans per year (150 new humans every minute). Each new human consumes oil directly or indirectly and 80 million new humans times the world per capita oil consumption of 4.7 barrels per human equates to 1 million b/d of increased oil consumption per year! But of course it doesn't stop at 1 million b/d per year because as well as increasing our species by 150 every minute each human on the planet aspires to greater affluence so that the pressure on per capita oil consumption is always upwards as well.
Over the next 25 years the world population is projected to increase by around 1.7 billion. If world per capita oil consumption remains at 4.7 barrels the world will have to increase its daily oil supply by 22 million b/d above what it is now! AND don't forget that 4.7 is just the world average. The oil per capita consumption of the USA is 5 times greater (±25) and the OECD average is 3 times greater (±15).
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Keith_McClary » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 02:34:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('waegari', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')omething else : as uranium is a metal and currently at 37$, i'm asking myself is this one is subject to peak soon?


It's no proof, but recently Sigmar Gabriel, the new German Minister for the Environment, argued that uranium is the one energy resource that is going to be depleted first, at an estimated rate of 20 to 60 years. Of course, he's not the first to say this, but still.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')In addition, world-wide uranium deposits will last only for another 20 years in the worst case, according to OECD estimates. There's a maximum reserve of no more than 4 million tonnes of uranium available at present, so it makes no sense to put too many eggs in this particular basket," he said.

Is this based on current consumption rates?
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Omnitir » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 05:05:03

But I bet we never approach peak doomerism…
People look so hard for problems, but often refuse to look at the feasibility of possible solutions.

From the article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If all nations were to use the same services enjoyed in developed nations, even the full extraction of metals from the Earth's crust and extensive recycling may not be enough to meet metal demands in the future

Well all nations aren’t using the same resources that developed nations enjoy. Current mineral/metal resource will last a long time. And in years to come advanced recycling techniques (such as that made possible with nanotechnology) will greatly extend mineral/metal resource supplies.

Uranium is not about to run out. As pointed out, conventional deposits are still at least several decades away from peaking, and then there are new techniques in development, such as extracting uranium from regular sea-water, that will greatly extend uranium supplies far into the future.

Most importantly is the complete disregard for mineral/metal resources within our reach but not yet touched; space. In similar paths to earth’s orbit is a massive amount of minerals, metals and volatiles that far exceed the total resource supplies the Earth has ever had in it’s crust, and are technically and financially within our reach to utilise right now. In the coming decades we will begin to utilise these resources and develop the foundations of a new infrastructure based on pulling resources from the sky instead of out of the ground.

The only peak we need to concern ourselves with is oil.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Doly » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 05:42:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'A')nd in years to come advanced recycling techniques (such as that made possible with nanotechnology) will greatly extend mineral/metal resource supplies.


Nanotech? Sorry, isn't that still science-fiction?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Most importantly is the complete disregard for mineral/metal resources within our reach but not yet touched; space.


That assumes that we have the energy to get there. Getting out of the gravity well requires plenty of energy.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Comp_Lex » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 06:01:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Nanotech? Sorry, isn't that still science-fiction?

No, it isn't

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat assumes that we have the energy to get there. Getting out of the gravity well requires plenty of energy.


What we need are Heim-Droscher-Hauser "Hyperdrive/Warp" engines.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby sameu » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 07:31:04

my guess is that the laws of thermodynamics still stands
you don't get a free luch
you need x amount of energy to get somewhere, either way you'll have to put that amount of energy into your system to get there
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Comp_Lex » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 07:38:54

Yes, but this all is relative if we can go to an another "bottle".
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Omnitir » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 07:46:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Nanotech? Sorry, isn't that still science-fiction?

Seriously? Nanotech is a rapidly growing part of our world. Many common products already incorporate nanotech to some degree. The most common form is simply ultra-light weight but very strong materials. The more advanced nanotech stuff is already revolutionising the leading edge of science and commercial R&D. As time passes more and more advanced applications of nanotech make their way into our every day lives. It’s real, and it really is progressing in leaps and bounds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Most importantly is the complete disregard for mineral/metal resources within our reach but not yet touched; space.

That assumes that we have the energy to get there. Getting out of the gravity well requires plenty of energy.

This is an area many people don’t understand. No need for warp drives or prohibitive energy expenditures. We can, and constantly do, send rockets to near earth objects – and this is the key term near earth objects. The resources near earth are completely within reach of our current capabilities. We already send probes to these resources and are slowly working our way towards ever more impressive ventures.

Yes it takes plenty of energy, but it’s affordable – if fact far more so then many common industrial/commercial business ventures that take place every day. We can afford the energy and the technology to send considerable sized rockets into near earth orbit, or lunar orbit, and begin to establish simple infrastructure that will allow ever more complex projects. And the key point with these projects is economics: the profit generated from the resource utilisation will far exceed and development or launch costs – especially once launch costs are negated thanks to the infrastructure I mentioned.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', '
')my guess is that the laws of thermodynamics still stands

Of course the laws of physics always apply, but so do the laws of economics. If it costs X dollars to go get some resources, and you can sell those recourses for X+Y, then you make a profit.


This no doubt anything to do with space sounds like science fiction to most people, but it’s actually happening. It’s only a matter of time before it becomes science fact – provided of course civilisation can keep together for a few more years.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby Doly » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 08:55:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Yes it takes plenty of energy, but it’s affordable – if fact far more so then many common industrial/commercial business ventures that take place every day.


"Affordable" depends on how expensive energy is. If energy gets more expensive, I wouldn't expect looking for things in space is going to be affordable.
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Re: Peak "everything"

Postby mermaid » Mon 23 Jan 2006, 09:09:42

Soon we'll have to dig down all the massive waste-mountains to find old materials thrown away in the past, will be used again in the future, these waste-sites will be our next mines of "everything".
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