[duke3522]

Ok folks. I have been reading up on Kuwait oil reserves, Iran cutting production, troubles in Nigeria, and the Venezuelans that just plain don’t like us.

But what is it all leading to in total oil production? And what will it take for the general facts of PO to really set in to the markets and other institutions?

Would total production of under 80m b/d for 4 or 5 months do the trick? Or will the west just have to have a total economic melt down to get the point across?

My predictions?

Over the next 18 months oil production will slowly rise approaching the 88m b/d level as the oil companies squeeze out every last drop. But then we will begin to see a bumpy plateau for the nest 18-24 months. Followed by the decline.

But once we fall below 80m b/d all bets are off for what happens next.

Duke of Indiana

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the next 18 months oil production will slowly rise approaching the 88m b/d level as the oil companies squeeze out every last drop. But then we will begin to see a bumpy plateau for the nest 18-24 months. Followed by the decline.

[bboyjiji]

the optimistic economists believe that market predictions of future prices will send current price signals to warn society. in theory, this should give us enough time to reconvert our infrastructure to sustain oil decline as we gradually transition to the 'new stuff'.

there's much debate on what exactly the 'new stuff' will be let alone hope for the country to change its way of life. but this academic field and its teachings is also a piece of our hubristic culture. I don't think the society, as a whole, will ever except Peakoil for what it really is, the end of growth. the media will probably glaze over with a 3 second soundbyte that the petroleum production sank a bit each year. To us peakoilers, we'll be laughing and giggling with the "i told ya so's" in our heads. but like our warnings, our validation will fall on deaf ears belonging to an unimaginably ignorant mass.

i've been a forum lurker for about a year and i think that in the excitement of this new doomerism culture, we've been ignoring the demand side of oil. i understand that demand destruction itself is a joke of a solution. but to be optimistic, there will be a combination of renewables and research initiatives in the future. and it really is a matter of finding ways to jump start those early or soften the landing. buying time for technology is the key. sorry for the non sequitor.

[AirlinePilot]

bboyjiji,

Unfortunately the geologic alarm clock has been ringing for quite some time and we have hit the snooze button a few too many times. I think it's already after midnight and we are hurtling towards the dawn of a day we all hoped would never come but somehow is here already.

With this latest news about Kuwaiti reserves, I shudder to think what is going on in the other large OPEC producer states.

I think time has run out, we haven't spent the money nor allowed the time to build the bridge we will require to span the wide gulf between where we are right now and where we need to be.

[turmoil]

bboyjiji is right in that demand is part of the equation. But assuming demand equals supply, price is the only correcting force. Elasticity figures will be interesting to see when $100, $150, $200 oil rolls around.

edit: added more figures for emphasis. i dunno if anyone can afford that to begin with.

[shakespear1]

Pilot

Great $this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'snooze button').

The snooz button has been hit for a long time on a many global issues over the decades.

The one that really sticks in my mind has been the years and years of TALK regarding disappearing species such as tiger, elephant and the rhino !!!!

I am of the opinion that the "ruling class" just does not really give a hoot. I suspect that in the back of their minds is the thought "I have money and the means to take care of myself when the lights go out so why try hard to change anything"

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', ' ')

The snooz button has been hit for a long time on a many global issues over the decades.

The one that really sticks in my mind has been the years and years of TALK regarding disappearing species such as tiger, elephant and the rhino !!!!

[Seadragon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('duke3522', '
')But what is it all leading to in total oil production? And what will it take for the general facts of PO to really set in to the markets and other institutions?

Would total production of under 80m b/d for 4 or 5 months do the trick? Or will the west just have to have a total economic melt down to get the point across?

[Ludi]

The ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.

[Seadragon]

I totally agree with your conclusion, Ludi. That is the message I've gotten from digesting peak oil and its possible consequences--we're on our own. Forgive me if I occasionally step back for a moment and wonder at the lack of comprehension on the part of the public and my government. Relatively speaking, I'm a newb.

[bboyjiji]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.

[dunewalker]

Airline Pilot, that was a fine piece of writing!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bboyjiji', '
')
the wealthy will feel the effects of peak oil. peak oil will limit commerce, the wealthy class's means of wealth. i dont understand what you mean.

[TorrKing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bboyjiji', '
')
the wealthy will feel the effects of peak oil. peak oil will limit commerce, the wealthy class's means of wealth. i dont understand what you mean.

[bboyjiji]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bboyjiji', '
')
the wealthy will feel the effects of peak oil. peak oil will limit commerce, the wealthy class's means of wealth. i dont understand what you mean.

[Omnitir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')The ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.

[Ingenuity_Gap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')The ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.

[elroy]

The ruling class has managed to rule the common people in any time, be it as warlords in the past, as kings, counts, dukes and other nobility in medieval times, as the plutocracy we have now, or as the post peak powers that be in the future. As long as someone is alive, they'll be serving the needs of those with the biggest stick.

[Omnitir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ingenuity_Gap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')The ruling class will be fine, they don't need to worry, so why should they? It is up to us, the regular guys, to deal with the situation. Nobody is going to save our butts for us.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bboyjiji', 't')he optimistic economists believe that market predictions of future prices will send current price signals to warn society. in theory, this should give us enough time to reconvert our infrastructure to sustain oil decline as we gradually transition to the 'new stuff'.

there's much debate on what exactly the 'new stuff' will be let alone hope for the country to change its way of life. but this academic field and its teachings is also a piece of our hubristic culture. I don't think the society, as a whole, will ever except Peakoil for what it really is, the end of growth. the media will probably glaze over with a 3 second soundbyte that the petroleum production sank a bit each year. To us peakoilers, we'll be laughing and giggling with the "i told ya so's" in our heads. but like our warnings, our validation will fall on deaf ears belonging to an unimaginably ignorant mass.

i've been a forum lurker for about a year and i think that in the excitement of this new doomerism culture, we've been ignoring the demand side of oil. i understand that demand destruction itself is a joke of a solution. but to be optimistic, there will be a combination of renewables and research initiatives in the future. and it really is a matter of finding ways to jump start those early or soften the landing. buying time for technology is the key. sorry for the non sequitor.