[turmoil]

If we were to start with a global production of 84 mbpd and figure that the halving time( ln(1/2)/-x.x%) would bring us to 42 mbpd, we can figure average annual production loss by dividing 42 by the duration (in years).

This, however, assumes immediate decline at these percentages from peak.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
rate years annual loss (mbpd)
1% 69.31 0.606
1.5% 46.21 0.909
2% 34.66 1.212
2.5% 27.73 1.515
3% 23.1 1.818
3.5% 19.8 2.121
4% 17.33 2.424
5% 13.86 3.03
6% 11.55 3.636
7% 9.9 4.242
8% 8.66 4.85
9% 7.7 5.455
10% 6.93 6.061
')

So if we wanted to focus on the difference between 2% and 5% decline, we would see that there is not a whole lot of oil separating the two if you divide the loss into 250 kbpd annual losses for any given country.

1.212 / .25 = 4.848

3.03 / .25 = 12.12

So we see that ~8 declining countries (all things being equal) separates economic havoc (2%) and the stone age(5%). I'm exaggerating but I think you get the point.

[pup55]

As the old saying goes, it's not the fall that hurts you, it's the sudden stop at the end.

At some point, somebody is going to have to do without oil.