[128shot]

All this peak oil talk is great, but how do you model and calculate this stuff?

Is there any way I could do it myself?


I'm sorry if I'm posting in the wrong forum, I haven't used a forum much before, I'm kind of new.


Thanks all!

[Ancien_Opus]

http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/

[nth]

You can go to the modeling forum on this site.
You will see people doing their own models and posting there.

What kind of data are you going to use?

[128shot]

Well, honestly, I'm new the whole thing. Where would you get reliable information?



Well, I'm not completely new to oil in general, just how to calculate peak oil. Its not something I've encountered enough to understand, which would be why I'm here. I'm planning on giving a report to fellow people to raise awareness if I can. I'm convinced its going to happen soon, the problem with this is I need to make models and gather data in order to effectively present it...I think you get the point.


Thanks all!

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'W')ell, honestly, I'm new the whole thing. Where would you get reliable information?

[128shot]

I'm looking for best estimates and how they calculated it, and a geological model..


I'm going to be presenting this to a fairly smart group of people, so just simply saying this and that without any back up won't do. I'm not sure where or how I could go about this so thats why I came here..


is there a formula I could use mathematically?

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Well, about the only people who have much of a geologically based answer for anything is the USGS, and around here their answers have more detractors than proponents, which is unfortunate because it appears they've got the most amount of time invested, are neither tree huggers nor drillers, and have access to tons of information most others probably don't.

As far as modelling goes, I'm surprised alot more people haven't chimed in by now, there appear to be quite a few methods and ideas for how they model stuff around here.

I might throw in that the very idea of modeling Peak isn't new, and do you really need to go do it all over again yourself? Why not just grab what appears to be the most reasonable method from the archives around here and throw it out there as your best guess from available information?

Make sure you understand the strengths and weaknesses of whatever model you choose so you can defend it of course, as best I can tell anyone with experience in the field is going to take apart most anything you'll find around here anyway.

Fortunately for someone trying to do what you are doing, if you stick to an audience of "believers" you've got a better chance of WHATEVER you present going over well...this end of civilization thing really seems to resonate with alot of people for some reason.

[128shot]

What kind of presential model would be best to use?


I don't care if its pre made per say, but I need a collection of data to do this.

I'm going to be presenting this in a few weeks so...

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

I'm the wrong guy to ask which way of modeling is best....most of the stuff around here is just trying to fit production data driven by economics and the political will of the Saudi royal family ...while trying hard to ignore economics and the political side effects of Saudi royal family.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'W')hat kind of presential model would be best to use?


I don't care if its pre made per say, but I need a collection of data to do this.

I'm going to be presenting this in a few weeks so...

[WebHubbleTelescope]

Most everything you will find is actually not modeling. It is curve fitting to empirical formulas using heuristics of various kinds.

If you don't mind getting attacked by professional geologists and petroleum engineers who seem to feel threatened by the approach, I would suggest you look at a real stochastic model for how oil flows through the system starting with discovery data. This basically models all the decisions as 1st-order rate constants.

I have a fresh post up where I use the old standby of the Laplace transform to derive the results in an alternative way.
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2006/0 ... place.html

Am I a Doomer or Math-fanatic? You decide.

[pup55]

For a tenderfoot modeler, I recommend taking a look at the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (on BP.com) for the reserves and annual production data. The data may or may not be really good, but at least it comes from a reputable source, and is consistently calculated every year, so if lucky, it will be off by the same amount consistently.

WHT is right. Most of what these guys are doing is trying to arrive at a mathematical expression that fits the historical data, and then using the same expression to try to predict future data. The main "debate", as it were, is how to select the best mathematical expression. Hubbert used the "logistics curve" for this, but there are a variety of other equations that should be a little better.

reservegrowthrulz is also correct in that the models do not necessarily take into account the actions of humans and/or events that may occur in the future. One need only look at the production between 1975 and 1990 for an example of this.

As a start, using your favorite spreadsheet program, graph out the historical production. For the right hand side of the graph, you can test what would happen if production remains constant for the next few years. What does the production curve look like? How long can this go on before we run out of reserves?

Next, try one where instead of flat, try one where production decreases by 2% per year. What does the curve look like? How long will the reserves last?

It's all about trying to predict the future. It's also kind of addictive, until you reach a certain point of head-scratching, where you try to figure out what it all means. Several people on the board are at that point already.

Anyway it's good practice to learn how to run a spreadsheet and graphing program, so have at it! Report back when you come up with a good one.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')It's all about trying to predict the future. It's also kind of addictive, until you reach a certain point of head-scratching, where you try to figure out what it all means. Several people on the board are at that point already.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')As a start, using your favorite spreadsheet program, graph out the historical production. For the right hand side of the graph, you can test what would happen if production remains constant for the next few years. What does the production curve look like? How long can this go on before we run out of reserves?

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')As a start, using your favorite spreadsheet program, graph out the historical production. For the right hand side of the graph, you can test what would happen if production remains constant for the next few years. What does the production curve look like? How long can this go on before we run out of reserves?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') REALLY wish people would stop this beginner mistake kind of misdirection already. Reserves are not the RESOURCE base

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ike I said before, this is basically a bean-counting exercise and I know that they know how much is under the ground. If they were to spill the beans, we would all be better off.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')Hopefully he or she will pretty soon improve the model to include an adjustment for discoveries and/or "reserve increases" as well as depletion, as some have.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')No wonder you are so confused. I only use estimates of discovery volume in the ground. You can only pump out what you can discover. Thinking about reserves as some big tank you keep in the backyard is obviously misguided. I don't think anybody believes that.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Some consider the lack of credible data from the oil majors one of the strongest arguments that many/all of them are unable to grow production & are actively concealing this fact.