[Carlhole]

The origins of the Great War of 2007

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niall Ferguson', 'A')re we living through the origins of the next world war? Certainly, it is easy to imagine how a future historian might deal with the next phase of events in the Middle East:

With every passing year after the turn of the century, the instability of the Gulf region grew. By the beginning of 2006, nearly all the combustible ingredients for a conflict - far bigger in its scale and scope than the wars of 1991 or 2003 - were in place.

The first underlying cause of the war was the increase in the region's relative importance as a source of petroleum. On the one hand, the rest of the world's oil reserves were being rapidly exhausted. On the other, the breakneck growth of the Asian economies had caused a huge surge in global demand for energy. It is hard to believe today, but for most of the 1990s the price of oil had averaged less than $20 a barrel.

A second precondition of war was demographic. While European fertility had fallen below the natural replacement rate in the 1970s, the decline in the Islamic world had been much slower. By the late 1990s the fertility rate in the eight Muslim countries to the south and east of the European Union was two and half times higher than the European figure.

This tendency was especially pronounced in Iran...

[peaker_2005]

The wheels are slowly grinding towards another war, it doesn't take much to see it if you look hard enough.

The sad thing is, there have been no real lessons learned from previous experiences - There's still a system of (somewhat) opposing alliances (one of the things that set WWI in motion).

There's (sorta) 3 factions - there's the US and its small number of allies, there's Europe which is (FINALLY!) somewhat united now, and Asia (this grouping includes Russia from my standpoint). Europe's sort of a neutral faction, but it's likely to fight with both of the others at some point. Europe distrusts the US faction, so it may side with Asia. Or it may stand against both, in which case it'll get particularly nasty...

Further, the resource spanner in the works is a nasty addition, likely to turn neighbour against neighbour.

[crow]

When reading on war predictions like these, I have to ask myself a question about those who advance these 'predictions' or 'possibilities' and those who pationately discuss them;

"Are these people rationally expressing a possibility or are they expressing the justification of their personal desire for war."


It's very hard to tell which is which sometimes, and truthfully, its probably a bit of the two.

Personally, I do not believe that an 'all out world war' is an inescapable alternative to the future.

I admit war is always a possibility, and that some armed conflicts will always arise, but think about a world wide conflict in the order of WWII for a second? Try to imagine anyone at all having to gain from this?

I believe it is far more likely that we will see numerous small conflicts like Afganistan and Iraq for the next decade or so rather than one huge war with pre-determined factions. the big fishes are going to be eating the little fish while keeping a very intense stare towards each other.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crow', '
')I admit war is always a possibility, and that some armed conflicts will always arise, but think about a world wide conflict in the order of WWII for a second? Try to imagine anyone at all having to gain from this?

[crow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crow', '
')I admit war is always a possibility, and that some armed conflicts will always arise, but think about a world wide conflict in the order of WWII for a second? Try to imagine anyone at all having to gain from this?