$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yoda', 'b')obcousins and other optomists: I have been lurking here for quite some time, and have been listening to all of the arguments, just trying to learn as much as I can.
I fully believe that "doom" and sudden crash of "life as we know it " are relative, and will differ for each individual. For me, and my family it is already beginning.
I can no longer afford to heat my house. When we purchased the house, propane was around 1.00 a gallon. It is now 2.48 a gallon in my area. This means that we have to keep our thermostat at 50 during the day, and 45 at night, to afford the current rate. It was 15 degrees here yesterday. If prices go up much more, we will be draining the water lines to prevent freezing, and going even lower with the thermostat. Not sure how we will get water then. It will not take much more of an increase to make us just give up.
We can barely afford gas for the car. We make NO unnecessary trips, and will only drive to work and back. Even with this adjustment, we are struggling to provide food and necessities to our family.
I think we were middle class not that long ago. The rising cost of fuel is having an incredable impact on my life TODAY. I do not know how long we can survive if prices go up any more. You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.
PeakOil is You
Bored of Peak Oil
Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by mgibbons19 » Tue 10 Jan 2006, 19:04:29
Good luck Yoda. I hope you can improve your situation.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by spudbuddy » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 03:02:09
Interesting -
For people old enough to remember the fiasco of 1973-74, perhaps they're hoping it will be another 30-year cycle.
Why are so many people either oblivious or in denial?
Why has Greg Greene's "End of Suburbia" which has done so well in so many countries, bombed in the US?
Hell.
Why is a Bush still in the White House?
That might be the best answer to the previous questions.
People have a lot to lose. They haven't been dragged kicking and screaming into their lifestyle choices, after all.
Whether they're having second thoughts or not, they're comfortable enough that they can have third, fourth, fifth...five hundreth...thoughts, before some serious realizations start to sink in.
"The American Way of Life" that Cheney barks about is serious business.
Not just some kind of weird star-spangled zen. It took rather a long time to ferment into what we have now.
Obviously, we wasted the piggy bank setting it up - it can't be replaced easily.
It has rather morphed and disguised itself as some kind of national pride.
Don't worry. Be a good citizen. Go shopping. Even if you have to REFI up the yin yang to do it.
I have to say this: Even this board itself kind of dilutes the issue down into pretty oil colors in a mud puddle sometimes.
Far too many Mad Max fantasies going on, in my not so humble opinion.
But that's fine.
This is still an entertainment medium after all. Healthier than chain smoking. More interactive than TV. Allows one to park the butt for awhile.
I still catch a positive drift - with all the shit going on, people still need to talk. It beats the silent dementia of isolated soul swoon. You bet!
Bored of peak?
Hell, we haven't seen anything yet. As if we really need the kind of excitement waiting in the wings -
I still believe the process of a public will shifting a political will.
(sort of like one guy trying to shift Mount Rushmore...)
but when enough people step up....I mean, how did they build those pyramids anyway?
Sure, it can be frustrating as hell feeling like our whole society is behaving like a blind drunkard staggering toward the edge of the Grand Canyon, and no guard rail....(where's Superman when you really need him?)...but tides of public opinion can turn awful fast sometimes.
We are not really as collectively stupid as we appear to be.
Remember, a lot of bright MA's have been working hard for a lot of years to lead us down this garden path. They have a lot of power and clout behind their best efforts.
Just imagine for a minute where they might have taken us had we been as stupid as some people like to think we are.
We probably wouldn't be here at all, if that were true.
For people old enough to remember the fiasco of 1973-74, perhaps they're hoping it will be another 30-year cycle.
Why are so many people either oblivious or in denial?
Why has Greg Greene's "End of Suburbia" which has done so well in so many countries, bombed in the US?
Hell.
Why is a Bush still in the White House?
That might be the best answer to the previous questions.
People have a lot to lose. They haven't been dragged kicking and screaming into their lifestyle choices, after all.
Whether they're having second thoughts or not, they're comfortable enough that they can have third, fourth, fifth...five hundreth...thoughts, before some serious realizations start to sink in.
"The American Way of Life" that Cheney barks about is serious business.
Not just some kind of weird star-spangled zen. It took rather a long time to ferment into what we have now.
Obviously, we wasted the piggy bank setting it up - it can't be replaced easily.
It has rather morphed and disguised itself as some kind of national pride.
Don't worry. Be a good citizen. Go shopping. Even if you have to REFI up the yin yang to do it.
I have to say this: Even this board itself kind of dilutes the issue down into pretty oil colors in a mud puddle sometimes.
Far too many Mad Max fantasies going on, in my not so humble opinion.
But that's fine.
This is still an entertainment medium after all. Healthier than chain smoking. More interactive than TV. Allows one to park the butt for awhile.
I still catch a positive drift - with all the shit going on, people still need to talk. It beats the silent dementia of isolated soul swoon. You bet!
Bored of peak?
Hell, we haven't seen anything yet. As if we really need the kind of excitement waiting in the wings -
I still believe the process of a public will shifting a political will.
(sort of like one guy trying to shift Mount Rushmore...)
but when enough people step up....I mean, how did they build those pyramids anyway?
Sure, it can be frustrating as hell feeling like our whole society is behaving like a blind drunkard staggering toward the edge of the Grand Canyon, and no guard rail....(where's Superman when you really need him?)...but tides of public opinion can turn awful fast sometimes.
We are not really as collectively stupid as we appear to be.
Remember, a lot of bright MA's have been working hard for a lot of years to lead us down this garden path. They have a lot of power and clout behind their best efforts.
Just imagine for a minute where they might have taken us had we been as stupid as some people like to think we are.
We probably wouldn't be here at all, if that were true.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by spudbuddy » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 03:18:14
Yoda -
That's one helluva first post!
Sorta brings it all back home.
I am not remotely in your situation, but that's only because I rent a small apartment whose heating is paid by the landlord, and even as he cuts back on the heat a bit, I can supplement his efforts with an energy-efficient space heater (because I don't pay hydro)...and I also live somewhere that is a 22 minute sybway ride to work.
But my gut feeling is that your situation is going to multiply exponentially out there into multitudes...which means you're not alone.
What you have to say is important in this forum, and even more so out there in the real world.
Best of luck to you.
That's one helluva first post!
Sorta brings it all back home.
I am not remotely in your situation, but that's only because I rent a small apartment whose heating is paid by the landlord, and even as he cuts back on the heat a bit, I can supplement his efforts with an energy-efficient space heater (because I don't pay hydro)...and I also live somewhere that is a 22 minute sybway ride to work.
But my gut feeling is that your situation is going to multiply exponentially out there into multitudes...which means you're not alone.
What you have to say is important in this forum, and even more so out there in the real world.
Best of luck to you.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by Doly » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 07:37:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yoda', '
')I think we were middle class not that long ago. The rising cost of fuel is having an incredable impact on my life TODAY. I do not know how long we can survive if prices go up any more. You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.
')I think we were middle class not that long ago. The rising cost of fuel is having an incredable impact on my life TODAY. I do not know how long we can survive if prices go up any more. You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.
Yoda, you are just bringing home something I realised when a poster here said he had lost his job.
Peak oil may hit gradually if we think of the society as a whole. But it's very likely to be hard landing for the individual.
What am I going to do if I can't find a job closer to my home and the cost of the train tickets keeps rising? I'm OK right now because I got some money from my family. If I hadn't got it, I'd be still in credit card debt and repaying very slowly. If the cost of commuting kept rising, I would be forced to relocate to a place I don't like, leaving my friends behind, and getting into more debt in the process of moving. That doesn't sound too bad... until you realise that I don't think my job is particularly safe. I can see very clearly that I'm not that far from a situation where I'd be unemployed and in debt in a place where I almost don't know anybody. That's about as hard a crash as it can get.
How many posters here can swear that their job is safe if the economy goes belly up? And could they sort out their lives if they suddenly became unemployed?
Just because I don't expect doom to happen generally, it doesn't mean that I'm expecting my life is going to be easy.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by yoda » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 15:20:58
Thanks everyone for the words of support. I feel like I went off and ranted, but am glad to hear that no one thinks ill of me for it!
Some background. While I guess I have always kinda known that oil was a finite resource, I lived a pollyanna life. Until December of 2004. Money was getting tight, as the cost of fuel was rising. Now, we considered ourselves to be financially responsable, no cc debt, some money in savings, mortgage only 75% of home value, one car paid off, etc. but we were starting to get worried. Not alot of extra each month and that seemed to be disappearing as prices rose. So, I'm at the gas station on Christmas eve, and kinda chatting with the guy filling his car next to mine. Topic of rising prices comes up, and I say that I hope they come down soon. He says "They are not going to come down, this is only the beginning". I must have looked bewildered, because he just chuckled and said "Ever heard of peak oil? If not, you better look it up" and drove away. I tried to brush it off as nothing, but got up at 4:30 on Christmas morning because I could not sleep, googled it, and everything changed. Whoever that man is, I want to both kiss you and kill you! Pollyanna no more.
These days every decision we make is related to the cost of fuel. I am seeing the same thing in others in my area, most of whom do not know what I know. We are not the only ones who are in trouble around here. Five families that I know in my small town are selling homes due to cost of heating. A rash of other homes on the market for unknown reasons. Talked to our local realtor who says that the #1 thing potential buyers want is a printout of heating costs. Home is expensive to heat, you can not sell it. My home has dropped 50% of its value in the last 18 months due to its heat costs, as have other homes in the area. It is not worth what I owe on it today. The realtor says she has not seen anything like it before, and had never even been asked about heat costs until the last year.
I know people who sleep in their offices during the week, and only come home on weekends in an effort to save on gas. There is talk that fuel costs are going to cause the school dept. to suspend bus operations, and require all students to walk. Many local businesses have closed due to expense of getting supplies and product delivered. All of this in my small town of 6000 people.
Now, those of you who feel that peak oil is not happening and/or will never happen, will you please explain to me what is happening here in my town??? This is middle class America. If what we are experiencing is not the beginning of peak oil, what the hell is it? And more importantly, could you please tell me when it will end, so I can inform my friends and neighbors that all will be ok soon, and provide them with a date of said improvement.
Everyone better wake up, and ask themselves, how expensive does a gallon of gas, or a gallon of propane/heating oil have to get before YOU can not afford to heat your house or drive your car? How expensive does it have to be before YOUR business can not continue to operate, and YOUR school buses can not continue to run. What is that number? 4.00 a gallon? 5.00? 10.00? What will be affected for the upper classes, when the lower and middle classes reach that point? When the independant truckers can not afford the fuel. When emergency services must cut back due to fuel costs.
That number is a reality already in parts of this country, and if you are not yet affected, consider yourselves lucky. Your time will come, and when it does, believe me, it is NOT a gentle glide, with the PTB stepping in to offer assistance and the plan of an alternative fuel source to ease the pain. At least, they sure as hell have not shown up in my neck of the woods with fuel cells for everyone and a nuclear power plant at the ready. Remember, it does not really matter when YOU can no longer afford fuel, it really only matters when the farmer who grows your food, or the trucker who delivers it to you can not afford it. This is only the beginning, but make no mistake folks, it IS beginning, right here in the good ol USA.
Some background. While I guess I have always kinda known that oil was a finite resource, I lived a pollyanna life. Until December of 2004. Money was getting tight, as the cost of fuel was rising. Now, we considered ourselves to be financially responsable, no cc debt, some money in savings, mortgage only 75% of home value, one car paid off, etc. but we were starting to get worried. Not alot of extra each month and that seemed to be disappearing as prices rose. So, I'm at the gas station on Christmas eve, and kinda chatting with the guy filling his car next to mine. Topic of rising prices comes up, and I say that I hope they come down soon. He says "They are not going to come down, this is only the beginning". I must have looked bewildered, because he just chuckled and said "Ever heard of peak oil? If not, you better look it up" and drove away. I tried to brush it off as nothing, but got up at 4:30 on Christmas morning because I could not sleep, googled it, and everything changed. Whoever that man is, I want to both kiss you and kill you! Pollyanna no more.
These days every decision we make is related to the cost of fuel. I am seeing the same thing in others in my area, most of whom do not know what I know. We are not the only ones who are in trouble around here. Five families that I know in my small town are selling homes due to cost of heating. A rash of other homes on the market for unknown reasons. Talked to our local realtor who says that the #1 thing potential buyers want is a printout of heating costs. Home is expensive to heat, you can not sell it. My home has dropped 50% of its value in the last 18 months due to its heat costs, as have other homes in the area. It is not worth what I owe on it today. The realtor says she has not seen anything like it before, and had never even been asked about heat costs until the last year.
I know people who sleep in their offices during the week, and only come home on weekends in an effort to save on gas. There is talk that fuel costs are going to cause the school dept. to suspend bus operations, and require all students to walk. Many local businesses have closed due to expense of getting supplies and product delivered. All of this in my small town of 6000 people.
Now, those of you who feel that peak oil is not happening and/or will never happen, will you please explain to me what is happening here in my town??? This is middle class America. If what we are experiencing is not the beginning of peak oil, what the hell is it? And more importantly, could you please tell me when it will end, so I can inform my friends and neighbors that all will be ok soon, and provide them with a date of said improvement.
Everyone better wake up, and ask themselves, how expensive does a gallon of gas, or a gallon of propane/heating oil have to get before YOU can not afford to heat your house or drive your car? How expensive does it have to be before YOUR business can not continue to operate, and YOUR school buses can not continue to run. What is that number? 4.00 a gallon? 5.00? 10.00? What will be affected for the upper classes, when the lower and middle classes reach that point? When the independant truckers can not afford the fuel. When emergency services must cut back due to fuel costs.
That number is a reality already in parts of this country, and if you are not yet affected, consider yourselves lucky. Your time will come, and when it does, believe me, it is NOT a gentle glide, with the PTB stepping in to offer assistance and the plan of an alternative fuel source to ease the pain. At least, they sure as hell have not shown up in my neck of the woods with fuel cells for everyone and a nuclear power plant at the ready. Remember, it does not really matter when YOU can no longer afford fuel, it really only matters when the farmer who grows your food, or the trucker who delivers it to you can not afford it. This is only the beginning, but make no mistake folks, it IS beginning, right here in the good ol USA.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by mgibbons19 » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 22:25:08
Yoda, if you don't mind me asking, where are you? What kind of work is the local economy engaged in?
Your story is interesting.
Your story is interesting.
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by MfromAmsterdam » Thu 12 Jan 2006, 07:57:21
The two posts of Yoda sort of proof the 'Doomers' case. (Could we please think about a new name for us doomers because it tends to put us automaticly in the Mad Max corner.) Reality is speaking there Bob. You better listen.
Peak Oil and everything which comes with it is happening already. It was already happening in Eritrea or Zimbabwe in 2000. And now the White World will take its turn. Dont be fooled by your own personal situation, Bob.
I'm so glad I'm mid-20, single and no kids or massive debt.... Good luck for all!
Michel
Peak Oil and everything which comes with it is happening already. It was already happening in Eritrea or Zimbabwe in 2000. And now the White World will take its turn. Dont be fooled by your own personal situation, Bob.
I'm so glad I'm mid-20, single and no kids or massive debt.... Good luck for all!
Michel
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by yoda » Thu 12 Jan 2006, 19:58:15
The economy and job market in my area is very diverse. I live in a small town (upstate NY). We are 25 miles south of a good sized city. Many folks work in the city, which has a number of universities and hospitals as well as all the usual retail and restaurant businesses. Closer to home are also several hospitals and universities. We do not have one huge employer, as I know many areas do. Lots of farmers and farm land nearby.
Basically the people I know are doctors, lawyers, farmers, nurses, teachers, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, real estate agents, antique dealers, restaurant owners, social workers, police officers, insurance agents, store managers, etc.
Really all just middle class (ok, maybe not some of the doctors!) normal people. We are fortunate that this area is not heavily dependant on one industry or company.
That is what is so alarming to me, how quickly things can go bad just from high fuel prices. As I said, we are not the only people in this boat around here. You always hear how most Americans are only a paycheck or two away from disaster. How many dollars per gallon are they away, I wonder?
I would seriously like to hear from everyone what the $ per gallon needs to be before you are in big trouble? Before you would have trouble buying fuel for heat, and to get to work?
On the bright side, temps. in the 50's here today and tomorrow!
Basically the people I know are doctors, lawyers, farmers, nurses, teachers, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, real estate agents, antique dealers, restaurant owners, social workers, police officers, insurance agents, store managers, etc.
Really all just middle class (ok, maybe not some of the doctors!) normal people. We are fortunate that this area is not heavily dependant on one industry or company.
That is what is so alarming to me, how quickly things can go bad just from high fuel prices. As I said, we are not the only people in this boat around here. You always hear how most Americans are only a paycheck or two away from disaster. How many dollars per gallon are they away, I wonder?
I would seriously like to hear from everyone what the $ per gallon needs to be before you are in big trouble? Before you would have trouble buying fuel for heat, and to get to work?
On the bright side, temps. in the 50's here today and tomorrow!
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by Kylon » Thu 12 Jan 2006, 22:49:08
I think alot of that has to do with the fact we live in a "BUY! BUY! BUY!" culture.
This society is always telling us to buy more garbage that we in reality don't really want, but through proper manipulation, the average person desires to buy.
Ontop of this, they have us buy it on credit, so we don't have to save up money and actually think about whether we want to waste our money on their crummy products or not. They make impulse buying the norm.
The end result is, the debt stacks up, and depending on how little self control the populace has, determines how far down in debt they get, and how much of their annual paycheck simply goes towards paying off interest.
The result is tragic. People are slaves to the debtors, and the corporations they work for. Because they are so far in debt, in order to keep from losing everything they own, they have to suck up to the corporate boss, who at the drop of a hat, would and could fire him/her and ruin their entire life.
This is the modern state in which we live. Something I will be glad that will change due to Peak Oil. The culture of "BUY! BUY! BUY!" will end, and people will have to start living responsibly, and corporations will no longer be able to extract every penny out of people.
However, one thing I am distressed about is the new bankruptcy laws...
This society is always telling us to buy more garbage that we in reality don't really want, but through proper manipulation, the average person desires to buy.
Ontop of this, they have us buy it on credit, so we don't have to save up money and actually think about whether we want to waste our money on their crummy products or not. They make impulse buying the norm.
The end result is, the debt stacks up, and depending on how little self control the populace has, determines how far down in debt they get, and how much of their annual paycheck simply goes towards paying off interest.
The result is tragic. People are slaves to the debtors, and the corporations they work for. Because they are so far in debt, in order to keep from losing everything they own, they have to suck up to the corporate boss, who at the drop of a hat, would and could fire him/her and ruin their entire life.
This is the modern state in which we live. Something I will be glad that will change due to Peak Oil. The culture of "BUY! BUY! BUY!" will end, and people will have to start living responsibly, and corporations will no longer be able to extract every penny out of people.
However, one thing I am distressed about is the new bankruptcy laws...
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by alpha480v » Fri 13 Jan 2006, 07:42:13
Good posts Yoda!
What part of New York are you from?Sounds like you are talking about Albany,or Syracuse area?We have been pretty lucky so far this winter as far as temps.I'm in the same boat and feel for you man!
What part of New York are you from?Sounds like you are talking about Albany,or Syracuse area?We have been pretty lucky so far this winter as far as temps.I'm in the same boat and feel for you man!
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by aldente » Fri 13 Jan 2006, 10:46:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') don't even bother to try to inform people about peak oil anymore.
There must be psychological component to this which hinders spread . I informed the absolutely "best and closest" fellow friends and - no reaction whatsoever...
Ever wondered what make us few PeakOilers different from the rest of the bunch? I at least was not able to figure it out so far.
Do they fear and we don't because we analyze? Does it boil down to the fear of death? Is the mass of humanity somewhat conditioned to not being able to recognize the results of the simplest math- namely that there will soon not be enough for everyone (simplistic definition of PO)?
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Re: Bored of Peak Oil
by Gazzatrone » Fri 13 Jan 2006, 11:06:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '
')
Do they fear and we don't because we analyze? Does it boil down to the fear of death? Is the mass of humanity somewhat conditioned to not being able to recognize the results of the simplest math- namely that there will soon not be enough for everyone (simplistic definition of PO)?
')
Do they fear and we don't because we analyze? Does it boil down to the fear of death? Is the mass of humanity somewhat conditioned to not being able to recognize the results of the simplest math- namely that there will soon not be enough for everyone (simplistic definition of PO)?
I tried to do that in my post A Short Tale About Simplicity, and trying to outline some of Peak Oil's problems in getting its message across.
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