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This is getting really scary !!

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This is getting really scary !!

Postby Rixttle » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 11:38:07

I went over to that other bird flu forum and people are realling panicking over there. It's almost too scary to watch. They say a lot of people are about to die. I went to www.SuperFluTalk.com
Freaky....
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby Rixttle » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 11:44:07

sorry to start a new thread. it's my first time here. I meant to reply to the other one. sorry!
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby Eli » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 11:48:12

That site is nothing to get too excited over just a bunch of people who are feeding off their own fears.

There is still no evidence that I have seen or read that the bird flu has gone Human to Human in Turkey. If you know of any info or news reports to the contrary please post away.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby FoxV » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 12:32:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rixttle', 'I') went over to that other bird flu forum and people are realling panicking over there.

Its easy to look at the consequences of something and start to panick, but its always best to consider the odds.

Consider that in over 20 years with millions of human infections, HIV (which will mutate into dozens of different strains within a single host) has yet to produce an airborne strain.

There are far more likely things out there that will kill you than Avian Flu (driving a car, doing house repairs, taking a shower, etc...). Odds are you are more likely to drop dead tomorrow from an undiagnosed heart condition than get infected with Avian Flu

Hope I've made you feel better about it all
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby bobbyald » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 13:04:46

Is it just a coincidence that BIRD flu is causing deaths in TURKEY ?
Life results from the non-random selection of randomly generated replicators
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby frankthetank » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 13:11:40

Maybe those people should go hid in the wilderness, until the flu passes?
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby DomusAlbion » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 13:45:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', 'I')s it just a coincidence that BIRD flu is causing deaths in TURKEY ?


An old joke but still funny, thanks.

It does make one think, however. Would chicken soup be an appropriate palliative for bird flu?
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby JeeBoomba » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 13:55:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')hat site is nothing to get too excited over just a bunch of people who are feeding off their own fears.

You mean like the people on this site do?
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby KevO » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 14:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rixttle', 'I') went over to that other bird flu forum and people are realling panicking over there. It's almost too scary to watch. They say a lot of people are about to die. I went to www.SuperFluTalk.com
Freaky....


Hi Rix, welcome.
Here are facts. Bird flu, according to official sources, has not gone human to human (H2H) - yet.
If it does we are truly f***** as there is no vaccine until it does and that will take a minimum of 6 months under perfect conditions. It is likely that we will lose all power utilities. Indeed the US gov advice on stocking up doesn't include thing that need electricity - such as a refigerator.
If it's goes as bad as some fear and it keeps a 50% mortality rate, which may go down as well as up, then it's the end of civilisation.

Peak Oil is expected to cause a die off that will apparently half the planets population. Not because of disease but because of there being no oil and therefore no power and all that relies on it.

Bird flu will do the same thing but in about a tenth of the time. Bird Flu = Disease + end of oil due to crashed economies due to everyone being in quarantine for a minimum of 6 months. Those that risk going to work under the trust of the anti virals such as Tamiflu will be guinea pigs for the rest of us.

Peak Oil is just the end of cheap oil and that'll still wipe out civilisation!
apparently.

My wife said today, "I don't 'believe' in peak oil but bird flu is a fact"
I tried to explain that peak oil is a 110% certainty within 10 years and the pre peak effects are already there for all to see, whereas bird flu is only a 99% certainty but a pandemic may happen tomorrow, next week, spring, autumn or in 50 years.
The bets are on whether BF or PO come first or will the 2006 Iran crisis scupper it all?

But we have family now all getting 6 months stocks for a bird flu pandemic and if that doesn't happen they will still have a cushion for peak oil!!

The cushion being 6 months to learn SS skills.

Rix, a far better info site is linked below. It has Doctors and Viralologists discussing the issues alongside preppers and Joe Public from all over the world. Dr Niman is a contributor - so call the forum the horses mouth.
All bird flu news is first at or from this forum
http://www.curevents.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=40
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby Trindelm » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 15:22:00

Well according to the Wall Street Journal, Japanese Chicken Farmers are showing Bird Flu Antibodies without symptoms. Tried getting the online WSJ link but you'll need a subscription as I only have a 6 month trial.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby NeoPeasant » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 15:24:38

The only real personal defense for a pandemic is physical isolation from the public for an extended period, as well as independence from utilities and services which might very well fail.
I am prepared to do this already because it is pretty much the same as preparing for the period of social turmoil that a hard crash would likely cause.
So by preparing for oil crash, you are coincidentally preparing to avoid a pandemic.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby TITAN » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 15:43:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', 'I')s it just a coincidence that BIRD flu is causing deaths in TURKEY ?



The bird flu was causing deaths in Indonesia and China long before it even got to Turkey...

For a good site on the progression of bird flu check: Current Events- bird flu topics
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby aahala » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 16:16:57

According to the morning's new reports, the Bird Flu must be one
of the most slowly moving epidemics in the history of man.

The first Bird Flu death was reported in 2003. The total, as of this
morning's accounts is now 80. About 75 of these were in Asia and
Turkey. The rest of the world about 5.

More than 5 people are likely to die this month in the US
due to drivers losing control of a vehicle and crashing into the victims
home.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby green_achers » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 16:52:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he first Bird Flu death was reported in 2003. The total, as of this
morning's accounts is now 80. About 75 of these were in Asia and
Turkey. The rest of the world about 5.

Yes, but the first 75 in Asia were out of about twice that many cases over a period of about 3 years. The most recent cases out of Turkey are the deaths so far out of a suspected approx 50-60 cases reported in the last 2 weeks. IF these cases are confirmed (which seems likely, given that most cases were in close contact and had similar exposures to birds) and IF the approx 50% mortality rate holds (unknown likelihood) then this would represent a dramatic increase. Whether this is because the virus has made the mutation to H2H transmission, or some other factor, this is still potentially very serious.

Too early to know, but it would be smart to be prepared.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby falser » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 16:59:24

RANDY: Stanley, listen to me.
I have SARS. There's only a ninety-eight
percent chance that I will live.

STAN: No, Dad, NO.

RANDY: Listen, Stan. SARS is destroying
our people. The Native Americans put
it in the blankets they gave us. Soon
there will be only ninety-eight percent
of us left.

STAN: What can I do?

RANDY: You... must find a cure for
SARS, son. And save our people.

(sorry, I had to)
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby TITAN » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 18:11:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('falser', '[')b]RANDY: Stanley, listen to me.
I have SARS. There's only a ninety-eight
percent chance that I will live.

STAN: No, Dad, NO.

RANDY: Listen, Stan. SARS is destroying
our people. The Native Americans put
it in the blankets they gave us. Soon
there will be only ninety-eight percent
of us left.

STAN: What can I do?

RANDY: You... must find a cure for
SARS, son. And save our people.

(sorry, I had to)



South Park = comedic genius
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby TheTurtle » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 19:31:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '
')If it's goes as bad as some fear and it keeps a 50% mortality rate, which may go down as well as up, then it's the end of civilisation.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('green_achers', ' ')IF the approx 50% mortality rate holds ...


I've got a problem with this 50% mortality rate. All that actually reflects is the percentage of known deaths among those who are known to have come down with the Bird Flu. How many tens of thousands ... maybe millions of Asian farmers have been exposed to the Bird Flu, came down with flu-like symptoms, took it easy for a few days and then went back about their normal business?

In other words, let's assume we have 1000 people who are all exposed to the disease and who all exhibit flu-like symptoms. Say 20 of them get sick enough that they must go to the hospital, where 10 of them die. Do we have a 50% mortality rate (i.e., 10 out of 20) or do we have a 1% mortality rate (i.e., 10 out of 1000)?

I've got no doubt that some sort of pandemic will flare around the world at some point, killing millions when it does (I am, after all, one of the "doomer" crowd). But I just don't think it is statistically accurate to claim that the H5N1 virus has a 50% mortality rate when we really don't know exactly how many people may have actually come down with it.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby Leanan » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 19:55:54

That's a good point. Most of the areas that have been affected are extremely rural. There may be no doctors for miles around, and by the time they get out there, people are either seriously ill or recovered.

OTOH, I'm not so sure that human-to-human transmission is the worst we have to fear. Bird-to-human, if it becomes more contagious, could be even worse. Birds are everywhere. It would be easier to avoid people than to avoid birds. The Four Corners hantavirus epidemic was caused small amounts mouse droppings/urine, which dried, turned to dust, and became airborne, where it was inhaled by people.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby HonestPessimist » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 20:33:43

We all gonna die! 8O It's the end of the world!

Seriously we have not seen a rapid human-to-human transmission of the bird flu mutation among human beings so far. We would expect as soon as one person is infected, the next five persons from that infected person get infected within an hour, 6 hours, 12 hours or the whole day. Five infected persons infect ten more people and so on.

We have not seen that immediate or rapid infections of people with bird flu so far.
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Re: This is getting really scary !!

Postby RdSnt » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 20:47:09

Tonight at 9pm EST on CBC's Fifth Estate, they are presenting a dramatic documentary style story of what a BF pandemic would look like if it broke out today.
It's based on the current planning that is being undertaken by governments at all levels and in a number of countries.
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