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Dealing with disbelief

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Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby coyote » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 00:39:24

NTBKtrader just posted a news story about the depletion in Alaska's North Slope. It's funny... I mention these news stories to people I know, and they keep not believing it or taking it seriously...

The standard response has changed from loud scoffing to indulgent smirks. The family crazy. Is that a positive change? Am I making any headway? It's honestly difficult to tell, even with people I've known for years or even decades.

There's something about this issue that changes people. They're not willing to hold the idea in their heads long enough to even argue with me about it. That's one of the things making me really nervous about this.

What is it about us, the subscribers to this site, that is so different from others that we can accept that Peak Oil may in fact be a possibility, and may in fact be a serious issue? What's so different about us? Because if we can figure that out, maybe we can figure out how to convince the people we care about to do at least a little preparing!

I'm planning as hard as I can; and even if I'm successful enough and lucky enough to get some land, I won't be able to take in everyone in my family. I also don't know if I'll be able to turn them away.

Anyone have any success stories with this? Please share...
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 00:57:35

I think people as a whole realize that there is something wrong with things as a whole. They just don't want to deal with "specifics."

Too real!
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 00:59:22

Your decision to believe something has nothing to do with the facts. Your subconcious does not care about facts. It cares about what will improve your chances for survival.

Take that Marshall Brain guy - the one says "peak oil will be a non-event" and then puts up a link to some guy holding a kite that is generating enough electricity to power a tiny led for 1/100th of 1 second and then says (more or less) "see there is nothing to worry about!!! Just a matter of time before this puppy is powering Hummers and heavy machinery!!!"

Well, he's spent his career making tons of money telling people how great the future will be. So his subconcious sees that telling people happy things has kepty him well fed and well provided for. Why screw with that?

Most of us probably benefitted from "secret", taboo, or generally unaccpeted knowledge in some way in the past. So our subconscious thinks believing this will benefit us in some way.

Take R. Rainwater. He's made tons of money from investing in the aftermath of crisis. It should come as no surprise then that he has come to accept that Peak Oil will have severe consequences.

Just my two cents, not a psycho-the-rapist.

Best,

Matt
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby lakeweb » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 02:12:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'W')hat is it about us, the subscribers to this site, that is so different from others that we can accept that Peak Oil...


I have not been here long. But it seems that the folks here are much like the folks everywhere else. They 'believe' more than they care to apply critical thinking. Sure they understand that oil will peak, that economies will fail, etc.

But do they really understand the implications?

Best, Dan.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 03:19:48

When I was a kid, a spent almost an hour trying to convince my folks that the television was saying a huge flood was bearing down on our house and we had to evacuate immediately.

Well, they were busy and wouldn't believe me, even though I pleaded with them to come and listen. A 20-foot-high wall of water roared over the farm, and we barely got out with our lives.

So I've spent the rest of my life paying really close attention to the news, to the scientists, to knowlegeable people in different fields. We weren't prepared for that flood in 1965; I want to be prepared this time.

Of course few of my friends or family pays any attention -- I'm condemned once again to being a Cassandra, the story of my life ...
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby RacerJace » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 04:21:18

I agree with your point Matt:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..... Most of us probably benefitted from "secret", taboo, or generally unaccpeted knowledge in some way in the past. So our subconscious thinks believing this will benefit us in some way. ....


As mentioned in the Age 26 or older? What were you thinking? thread many including myself speak of some troubled childhood events that opened the subconcious door to accepting human mortality and awareness of the perilous disregard we (the majority of the populace) have for our future.

It's also discussed at length in the Peak Oil and Cognitive Dissonance Theory thread. This aspect in particular is something I'm starting to become much more aware of .. even with my own actions and attitudes. I had lunch with my cousin today and in explaining peak oil to her I basically said I find it very dificult to continue a conversation on the subject when I reach a conclusion that the person I'm conversing with has not yet comprehended the the greater meaning of peak oil etc. She was anoyed obviously because she said she can't really just jump on board until she has taken the time to study the theory and all its facts and data for herself. I said "fair enough" but my problem was really that I have now invested so much emotionally (including my subconcious doomer beliefs) into accepting the consequences of peak oil I can no longer stand to hear people dissmiss it or give the same old "someone else will fix it" type response. It's like I've almost closed my mind to anything but a narrow range of possible outcome scenarios for the next 50 years. They range from an apocolyptic crash (total pessimistic) through to a soft landing (optimistic), and my tendancy is towards the pessimistic end of the scale.

I've even had significant trouble getting my wife to fully accept and support the plans I feel must be implimented for our families wellbeing. As discussed in the Support from the loved ones thread:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..it is not just the acceptance of the consequences of Peak Oil but the participation in changing the lifestyle of debt based buying and all that goes with consumerist ways of life that constitutes real support. Otherwise there will always be opposition, be it passive or aggressive. It's all part of the cognitive dissonance people have with their possessions and lifestyle. Getting all loved ones to make this sort of change is extremely difficult and unlikely for most.



.
Last edited by RacerJace on Wed 11 Jan 2006, 05:51:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 04:45:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'W')hen I was a kid, a spent almost an hour trying to convince my folks that the television was saying a huge flood was bearing down on our house and we had to evacuate immediately.

Well, they were busy and wouldn't believe me, even though I pleaded with them to come and listen. A 20-foot-high wall of water roared over the farm, and we barely got out with our lives.

So I've spent the rest of my life paying really close attention to the news, to the scientists, to knowlegeable people in different fields. We weren't prepared for that flood in 1965; I want to be prepared this time.

Of course few of my friends or family pays any attention -- I'm condemned once again to being a Cassandra, the story of my life ...
that is quite a story. was it a failed dam?


The flood was caused by a 15-inch supercell cloudburst that stalled over the watershed of the South Platte River above Denver in 1965.

"Denverites scarcely knew where the South Platte River flowed through their city. On most of the thoroughfares that crossed it, there was only a low bridge, a few hundred feet long. The river was much too wide and fast to wade across, and too shallow and fast for swimming or boating. But it truly wasn't much of a river.

"On the Wednesday night of June 16, 1965, though, that modest river demanded our attention. A huge thunderstorm had hung for a good part of the afternoon over a small area south of Denver, near Castle Rock, Colorado. The area getting most of the rain was all in one watershed, drained by tiny Plum Creek. The saturated land around Plum Creek became unable to absorb more water, and in the early evening the creek became a raging torrent, quickly dumping a phenomenal amount of water into the South Platte.

"The Platte didn't rise; it almost exploded. Starting at about Castle Rock, a twenty-foot-high wall of water began a journey toward Denver. Through the late evening, in darkness, we listened to radio descriptions of disappearing bridges, and flooded property.

"Not until the morning light did we really know what had happened. The Platte had grown to a mile-and-a-half wide in places. It had destroyed or seriously damaged all but three of the bridges that spanned it in Denver."

And yes, I do watch the Weather Channel all the time. I also became a meteorologist.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Doly » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 05:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'I')t's like I've almost closed my mind to anything but a narrow range of possible outcome scenarios for the next 50 years.


I think that's the problem with a lot of people here. I'm not saying at all it's exclusive of peakoilers. Actually, most people have the same issue. Once they have a settled belief about such things as what the world is like and what they expect for the future, they have trouble not just changing their mind, but simply discussing it calmly with people of different beliefs. That's why it's generally hard to convince people of peak oil, and why peakoilers have little patience with people new to the concept.

I have been a teacher and come from a family of teachers, so I have no trouble talking non-confrontationally with people that have what I regard as the silliest beliefs, and making them see why they're completely wrong. In that sense, I'm at an advantage here. What I can advise to everybody here trying to deal with this is:

1) Be patient. People don't change their mind overnight. Which is actually a good thing. Imagine how chaotic the world would be otherwise.

2) Try to remember the times before you were a peakoiler, and be sympathetic to the arguments the other person is saying. There was a time when you would have said the same things.

3) Don't think that whatever convinced you is the same thing that will convince everybody else. Everybody is different. Think of who has authority in that person's world and see if you can show them that people they respect believe in peak oil. For some people, realising that peak oil is based in solid science is what works. For other people, it's reading the latest speeches by Bush on energy that will do it. For others, it's what serious economists say what counts. And some will be convinced by the fact that Sharon Stone believes it!
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby killJOY » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 08:41:01

It's fairly well documented that people (most people) don't make decisions on the basis of data (unless they have been "debauched by learning," as William James put it).

What to do about people who disbelieve? King Lear said it best:

"Nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing!"
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 11 Jan 2006, 12:26:42

Even people who "believe" tend to thrust the date of the real pain well into the indefinite future---15 years, 20 years, or more. That's done to blur the realization that the pain will affect them personally. This is a huge factor in the general societal inertia regarding PO and looming environmental collapse.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Revi » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 11:02:53

I don't try to convince people about peak oil anymore. I just mention the fact that the price of oil has gone up to over three times it's cost 5 years ago. It'll keep going up. Maybe it's time to do something! They can either listen or not, but they were told. That ends my responsibility except for members of my family, who I am planning for. You can only deal with the people in your household really. I just read The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell. It turns out that 95% of people just do whatever the others around them do. They just follow. Once the tipping point is reached they'll all start to believe that peak oil is real. That may not be such a great thing. What will they do? They may panic. We all know about peak oil, and have progressed into the doing something stage. They are going to be hit with it all at once. We've had time to prepare psychologically. It'll be a collective shock.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby crapattack » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 22:45:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Ravi said: Once the tipping point is reached they'll all start to believe that peak oil is real. That may not be such a great thing. What will they do? They may panic. We all know about peak oil, and have progressed into the doing something stage. They are going to be hit with it all at once. We've had time to prepare psychologically. It'll be a collective shock.


Good post Ravi, I have been giving some thought to this idea of late as well. My intial thinking was once the PO concept hits the mainstream and gains some serious traction - meaning people start to believe - they may well start to panic. We could see a rush to sell in Suburbia and this could trigger a housing market collapse. As I've continued to ponder this however, all the evidence I have, including personal experiences trying to inform people of this, is even when they are told this will happen it will take quite a lot of repetition before they begin to believe. Mainstream media will have to start pounding on this topic, like they did for Y2K, before the majority will start to sit up and start noticing. Most likely gas prices will have to do another run-up suddenly, or another hurricane, in order for the topic to deploy across the media landscape in a widespread way and for the topic to sustain itself there will have to ongoing hardship.

To me this means most people won't believe until we are 'in-the-sh*t' so to speak. Some of my smarter friends without the encumberances of children and heavy morgages have been the most receptive, and this indicates to me that many simply don't want to believe because they have too much at stake. I would have thought that people with children would be the most receptive as they literaly have the most to protect, but in my experience seems to work opposite.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 23:47:12

In the end, it may not matter whether we "believe" or not. Most people are and will be completely unable to adjust to the enormous changes that are coming, and will die as they are hit by abrupt discontinuities. Many will simply starve when the supermarket shelves are stripped and remain bare for weeks on end. Although I live on a small farm and try to be self-sufficient, I don't think I and my small clan could survive much longer than a year or two if the local stores didn't get their deliveries of all the stuff we need.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby crapattack » Tue 17 Jan 2006, 00:14:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')eineken said: Although I live on a small farm and try to be self-sufficient, I don't think I and my small clan could survive much longer than a year or two if the local stores didn't get their deliveries of all the stuff we need.


As I am planning on buying a small farm myself, I find this statement curious, can you please elaborate? Do you think you'll be able to barter/trade for anything you may be missing, or is the project of making your farm self-sustainable too difficult.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Tue 17 Jan 2006, 14:37:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost people are and will be completely unable to adjust to the enormous changes that are coming


I agree. Its gonna seem like the end of the world when the changes start comming down because its gonna be so out of the realm of what people experience and expect in their everyday life. People have been programmed since birth that this is the way that life is and this is what they should expect in life. I say people are gonna lose their minds when the shit hits the fan.

Many like me will simply not want to go on living after they can't continue to have their modern comforts. I know whats comming before hand and it depresses the hell out of me. This is not what I wanted for my life. I'm gonna continue to enjoy each and every day I have left and I guess my life is destined to be a lot shorter than what I thought it would otherwise be. But on the one hand I'm thankful I was invited to the party. Its been fun while it lasted.

Just think of the shock comming for those who won't find out until the end really does start to come down. I suspect there will be a high suicide rate.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Tue 17 Jan 2006, 22:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'N')TBKtrader just posted a news story about the depletion in Alaska's North Slope. It's funny... I mention these news stories to people I know, and they keep not believing it or taking it seriously...

The standard response has changed from loud scoffing to indulgent smirks. The family crazy. Is that a positive change? Am I making any headway? It's honestly difficult to tell, even with people I've known for years or even decades.


LOL, you sound like you're meeting the typical "don't bother me with the facts" type of attitude that others seem to have encountered. I've met it only very very rarely, and usually in other contexts.

There are some things that can help:

Firstly, to help you - if you're the "one person" in the local area who is Peak Oil Aware, then this suggestion is not likely to be of much assistance. But I am assuming that you some other Peak Oil-Aware people in your immediate environs (ie: within reasonable travelling distance). Get 'em over. Throw a "do" (get-together, chow-down, whatever phrase most tickles your fancy) at your place. DON'T tell the persons at your place of residence that these guys (and some gals, I assume) are Peak Oilers, and instruct your friends (the one's who're Peak Oil aware) that they are not to hammer the issue. Use humour of the gentle type extensively, if you possibly can.

Then let the conversation drift into talking about Peak Oil-type issues & the lack of preparedness. If you can start talking (say) about that bio-diesel from Algae proposal that is doing the rounds, you might spark some interest.

But, please remember: if it's you talking to your family, then they will be naturally skeptical, simply because familiarity breeds contempt. It's the same as the half-wits who "race the train" across the level crossing because they've "always done it" all of their lives. They usually feature on the evening news, with their mangled corpses being extracted from the shattered wreckage of their vehicles. In this case, familiarity with the level crossing has bred contempt for the 10,000+ ton trains that hurtle across it. In your family's case, they have seen you so often that they will tend to disregard most things you say, for the same reason that kids ignore their parents.

They "know you" too well, as it were.

Secondly, please think of things from their point of view: here's a "lone voice" informing them of discomfort to come. Even if the Freemarket magically produces more oil, or magically finds another alternative, or something like that, there will still be 'change-over' pains. It means that, even of we find this as-yet-undiscovered energy source, we'll still have to go through the usual downsizing, retraining and facing the wasted years of our previous employment(s). This is no easy thing for "ordinary" people to swallow, especially in a cluelessly consumerist Society, hell-bent on World-Without-End Spending.

I am assuming that you're talking to persons who are more-or-less contemporaneous with you (ie: of about the same generation, perhaps a litle older, perhaps a little younger). You may find allies in what you're saying in those who went through the Great Depression & Second World War. Having gone through discomfort, they realise that discomfort can return at any time. The "Hey, Grandpa, can you remember when the Price of Oil was US$2 per barrel?" approach works well. Sure, they may regale you with utterly irrelevant stories but if you cultivate your contacts with 'em, they may well end up on your side.

This allows attack from two fronts, as it were, but be GENTLE about it.

Fourthly: be GENTLE. An overbearing verbal bully (i'm sure you can think of your own examples; we have them here at the boards, too) is likely to shoot themself in the foot. They may have an EXCELLENT message and be utterly correct in what they say but put it in such offensive, insulting ways that they promptly turn a somewhat receptive audience into instant protagonists, an audience who takes the opposite position just to annoy or get back at that person.

This will mean you'll have to endure an an awful lot of good-natured but somewhat clueless "ribbing". The wittiness of this "ribbing" may surprise you. The HALF-WITTEDNESS of it will depress you. Don't respond in like kind. This will be the most difficult thing you've ever done is NOT TO RESPOND in like kind. Instead, stick to what you've got to say.

Smile beatifically. If someone tries to provoke you enough, eventually, they will turn the audience against them - the audience will be on your side, not the protagonist's - BUT ONLY IF YOU DON'T LET 'EM GET TO YOU.

If you have a belligerant nuisance who takes great pleasure in offensive loud-mouthing, give her the floor. Let her talk herself into a hole in the ground, and let her offend the audience. The Feminists are good examples of the last sort - while they may have had a message that was part-way good (i'm beginning to have severe doubts, especially in light of the way the Tobacco Industry all-too-easily co-opted Feminism to help boost sales of cigarettes) they so antagonised even their own supporters that they ended up not having many supporters. If this belligernant nuisance gets to the point where they have really rubbed the audience up the wrong way, YOU step in to be the "smoothing influence", the calming balm, as it were.

This gives you the easy way out: you can become the gentle voice of reason, labouring under dreadful circumstances (the belligerent nuisance) and this very belligerancy will hand you the entire audience's attention and likely their sympathy, too. It also gives your vocal cords a bit of a rest, too, while the belligerant nuisance gets on with the idea of brow-beating others.

Lastly: KNOW YOUR STUFF. I simply cannot emphasise this enough. Most questions will be of the so-simple-they-are-stupid type, but bear with it. The 'snake in the grass' will ask you the most incredibly difficult, obscure, technically challenging question and they ask it just to make you squirm. The best response is to inform them that, while you are aware of the topic (whatever that is), that you're addressing a general audience, thus you have to limit your answers to those which are not too technical, but if they want to write the question down, you'll get back to them. If they do write the question down and give it to you, GET BACK TO THEM: they are of the interested sort who is willing to go that extra mile to find things out - and they'll stick unshakably by the knowledge gained, too. Once cultivated, they can become a valuable ally, if you can only find them.

I hope this helps, but in all likelyhood I'll be ignored.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 17 Jan 2006, 23:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')eineken said: Although I live on a small farm and try to be self-sufficient, I don't think I and my small clan could survive much longer than a year or two if the local stores didn't get their deliveries of all the stuff we need.


As I am planning on buying a small farm myself, I find this statement curious, can you please elaborate? Do you think you'll be able to barter/trade for anything you may be missing, or is the project of making your farm self-sustainable too difficult.


The question you ask is an enormous one, crapattack. But, basically, I think that true self-sufficiency, post-collapse, will be an almost impossible task. Those with the best chance of succeeding will be people who are able to organize themselves into communities that share the labor, skills, and equipment and can provide one another with basic medical care and some sort of security against the ravening hordes. Many of the skills needed have been lost or nearly lost and will have to be relearned. My own rural situation is very socially isolated, so I'd probably perish fairly quickly despite having some ability to grow food---although even that would be difficult without access to seeds, fertilizers, mechanical equipment and parts, etc. I know this answer isn't very satisfactory, but I hardly know where to begin in addressing your question.
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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby coyote » Wed 18 Jan 2006, 21:17:31

Thank you Uber, Doly et al. Good suggestions, I'll give them a shot. These kinds of strategies will be very important for those of us who care about friends and family, and desperately need their help in preparation.

Trying to teach my friends the implications of Peak Oil is like trying to convince my dad that global warming is not a liberal red herring...

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Re: Dealing with disbelief

Unread postby crapattack » Fri 20 Jan 2006, 11:57:41

Heineken, your last post sounded so depressed I hope you're doing ok. It must be hard to think about dying on your isolated farm... are there any people you can bring there to help, maybe build a small community? The isolation could help protect you if you can secure all the things you need. Other than that is it possible to sell?
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