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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Dow Jones will be..

Poll ended at Wed 15 Jun 2005, 20:53:42

Be the same.
10
No votes
Below 10,000.
7
No votes
Below 9,000.
4
No votes
Below 8,000.
7
No votes
Below 7,000
5
No votes
Below 6,000.
2
No votes
5,000 and below.
29
No votes
 
Total votes : 64

Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby Helios » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:09:58

I don't understand.

Shouldn't it be that the when the market is low, people put their money into gold and other precious metals- not both at the same time?
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:10:36

All that inflated money has to have somewhere to go...
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:15:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')houldn't it be that the when the market is low, people put their money into gold and other precious metals- not both at the same time?


That's what I always thought.

My feeling is that despite the euphoria on Wall St. this week, there's still a lot of uncertainty/anxiety out there.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby FoxV » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:24:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'M')y feeling is that despite the euphoria on Wall St. this week, there's still a lot of uncertainty/anxiety out there.

Here's a little something to calm your nerves a bit

Dow cracks 11,000, led by rise in GM shares

I personally don't understand how investers can sleep at night
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby DigitalCubano » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:41:24

The speculative real estate capital has to go somewhere given how that market is cooling off. Frankly, I'm all for it: more capital in the stock market leads to more jobs and better products that benefit the consumer. The level of risk aversion that still persists from the Tech Bubble crash will determine how far this rally goes in 2006. So far, the news is good! :)
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:53:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'T')he speculative real estate capital has to go somewhere given how that market is cooling off.


That's what I thought at first too, but the article attributes the 11k eclipse to the news that GM's projections have been upgraded by Goldman Sachs from 'underperforming' to 'in-line.' Why investors would take money out of a faltering real estate industry only to shovel that money into an even more vulnerable industry like auto production (by GM, no less) confuses me to no end.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby FoxV » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:57:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'T')he speculative real estate capital has to go somewhere given how that market is cooling off.

That will only work until people are either left holding houses that they can't sell, or start taking a loss on the sale.

in anycase I expect any ride up to be short.

And on that note, Dow dropped 40pts in 30 minutes (hmm, that was shorter then I expected :razz: )
Last edited by FoxV on Mon 09 Jan 2006, 15:59:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby pup55 » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:01:14

To paraphrase Walter Mondale:

If you write $2.3 billion per day in hot checks (federal deficit spending), you will have a hell of a party.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby DigitalCubano » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')hy investors would take money out of a faltering real estate industry only to shovel that money into an even more vulnerable industry like auto production (by GM, no less) confuses me to no end.


Maybe the value investors think GM is undervalued. I myself was toying with taking a long position on GM because of my hunch that they will eventually go through the bankruptcy process, shed their legacy costs and come out looking better. Heck, at least its a hedge against the scenario where the tax payers pick up the bill (e.g. the S&L scandal). ;) However, I'm more of a growth investor and am still probably more risk averse than average. Thus, no GM for me!
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:06:20

Remember that GM's push up came from the belief that GM won't go bankrupt in the near future. They say nothing about next year but They don't expect it to happen this spring.

Of course this all came today as GM was unveiling their new line ups and showing off concept cars. The car nut in me loves the concept camaro. The realist in me is continuing to get better at riding my bike longish distances. Guess which method of transport is more likely in my future
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby FoxV » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:12:18

These days the analysis keep saying the Dow is going up or down based on whether they think the Fed will continue or stop ist quater point raises.

Everyone is expecting one more raise this month, but ya know, I have a suspicion that they're not going to raise rates at the next meeting. This will catch everyone by surprise and give the dow one hell of a boost.

It will also start Bernanke's inflation ball rolling, just in time for Iran and the M3.

Call it a "fairwell kiss" from Greenspan
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:16:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'H')eck, at least its a hedge against the scenario where the tax payers pick up the bill (e.g. the S&L scandal). ;)


I hadn't thought of that. Interesting angle. Frustrating scenario, but interesting.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby Andrew_S » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:29:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')
The DJ hit 11,000 today, for the first time since 2000.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/09/markets ... /index.htm

Meanwhile, gold has hit its highest level since 1981:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/09/markets ... /index.htm


I no longer read gold-bug stuff but if you measure the DOW in ounces of gold instead of US dollars, maybe nothing much has changed recently on the market.

Just dollar inflation. Some have predicted that one day one ounce will buy the DOW. Question is how many dollars will that be, 10 000 or 1000?
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby ohanian » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:34:55

Image

Recession? What recession?
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 16:55:24

I wonder what the EROEI is of those turn-of-the-millennium stock market 'prophecies'... They can be purchased on Amazon for less than 10 cents, and I'm sure they burn as well as any old novel (and for only a fraction of the cost!)

:o
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby coyote » Mon 09 Jan 2006, 18:09:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Helios', 'I') don't understand.

Shouldn't it be that the when the market is low, people put their money into gold and other precious metals- not both at the same time?

Here's hoping gold crashes first -- so I can buy a bunch! :) Missed it the first time around...
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby Revi » Tue 10 Jan 2006, 18:14:05

Now the dow is over 11,000. What's going on? Last week the Chinese said that they were going to dump dollars and the dollar started losing ground. Did they do something to prop it up on Monday? The dollar gained against the Euro on Monday. What's going on? Anybody know? Is this the beginning of a bull market or is it a suckers rally? Are there any other factors at play? Oil stayed around the same as its close yesterday. Over $63 a barrel. That couldn't have done anything.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 10 Jan 2006, 18:37:19

China announced that they aren't going to dump their dollars today. So if they are to be believed then there won't be a sell off and the dollar can hold a little of it's value for a bit. The about face they are doing is interesting though. I wonder what they where offered to shut up for a bit.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 10 Jan 2006, 18:39:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow the dow is over 11,000. What's going on? Last week the Chinese said that they were going to dump dollars and the dollar started losing ground. Did they do something to prop it up on Monday? The dollar gained against the Euro on Monday. What's going on? Anybody know? Is this the beginning of a bull market or is it a suckers rally? Are there any other factors at play? Oil stayed around the same as its close yesterday. Over $63 a barrel. That couldn't have done anything.


The FED is literally shovelling money into the economy. M3 in the last 3 months has been growing by about a 20% annual rate. The party is going to end with one hell of a hangover.
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Re: Dow 11,000

Unread postby Hegel » Tue 10 Jan 2006, 20:17:41

DOW in $: 11,000

DOW in Gold: 8,200

DOW in WTI: 7,100

Dollar Inflation?! You the judge.
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