[Guest]

where would one invest in order to profit post-peak? When I retire I want to be able to afford to drive one of those classic H2s with the furry dice in the mirror. I already own a some FCEL (which has done nicely). Are there any other companies which will benefit?

[Pops]

(Boilerplate Disclaimer)
“Well, I’m no <insert profession here>, but;

In the medium term (10-15 years) I’d guess alt fuel technology and rural land.

Having said that, heres the Doomer part, today our good friends the Saudis have ALL the excess capacity in the world. Any political oil shock i.e.; “Embargo II”, will lead to a worldwide recession and whatever effect that has on the market.

Also, we’re already seeing increased inflation in raw goods due too rising oil prices, which BTW, aren’t calculated in the rosy numbers of the CPI. Interest rate hikes to ward off inflation and protect the inheritances of the wealthy could easily lead to consumers defaulting on their huge debt burden – (I think) the average debt is now more than 50% of net worth.

With the US in the financial straits were in – regardless of the spin from the campaign, I wouldn’t be surprised if something approaching the great depression happens in conjunction with and even partially masking the true “PEAK”.

Personally, my investments include a small (20-30ac) farm outright in the next couple months, equipping it with suitable alt power, independent water supply, permanent plantings and improved insulation/passive solar. I’ll still have a little under the mattress. It’s our semi-retirement place albeit somewhat sooner than we thought. If the Energy Fairy smiles on us and they discover 1tbbl under Cincinnati, I’ll have a great place to putter away my old age, if I make it that far.

Pops

[pip]

Buy mineral rights on land with oil/gas wells on it would be a pretty obvious place.

[pip]

On a related note, what type of companies would you sell short? What kind of companies/industries are going to most affected by high fuel prices.

[Atr0p0s]

Agriculture

[pip]

Same demand + decreased supply = good grain prices. Plus with all the unemployed people to hoe weeds for cheap, agriculture might be actually be a good industry to be in.

[Leanan]

If we have a "hard landing," the whole question of investments may be moot. We could end up with stagflation or hyperinflation that makes money and stocks practically worthless. You may end up wishing you'd spent it while it was worth something.

[Aaron]

I personally invest in Krugerands...

[Pops]

I'm with Leanan.

[Leanan]

I've been thinking about this for awhile, and I don't know that any "investments" would be sure things in a post-petroleum world. Would gold or silver be worth anything, if people are starving and there's no food to buy? You can't eat gold. Or even make anything out of it, aside from jewelry and a few high-tech items. Real estate might be better. But a lot of farmland is only arable because of petroleum-derived fertilizers or mechanical irrigation. Plus, who knows what the weather will be like, if desperation coal-burning or coal gasification accelerates global warming? What seems like prime farmland might end up under the ocean, or an arid desert.

And even if you manage to pick something that retains its value...will you be able to keep it? Smaller crises than oil depletion have thrown governments into turmoil, and resulted in the starving masses taking property from the wealthy and privileged. Or even the not-so-wealthy.

Therefore, I think the best investment might be in yourself. No one can take knowledge and experience away from you. Take classes solar technology or organic farming. Learn to repair bicyles or break horses or build boats. Get a degree in nuclear engineering. Anything that will increase your value in a post-peak world.

[Martin]

Hi

I think most people agree oil will run out at some time
In researching peak oil I'm one of those who think it is going to be in the next year or so

But what interests me more now is in how we will cope when it happens

There's loads of pessimistic predictions of die offs caused by starvation, economic collapse and war

But it occurs to me that there's no actual reason this should happen

The oil won't stop suddenly, it will quickly slow our economies and people might panic at first
But our governments would start to seek alternative fuels and implement conservation
With oil declining at about 3% a year we could wean ourselves off oil slowly

The trick is going to be getting through the panic when not even the governments will know what to do
As long ordinary people get together and prevent any crazy wars then it will be alright

It could end up being a really good thing
We would get more environmentally friendly and probably get a less money based society

Martin

[Pops]

Hi Martin,

Just a suggestion and not to blow you off, but read through some of the older posts to get a flavor as to what the likely responses to your arguments will be. Then you can tune your question to a specific topic area.

Sharpen your swords and have at it!

That will likely bring better responses and we will all learn more.

Talk to you later.

[Guest]

I have read all the technical speal about how we all depend on oil and its products, it pretty detailed
They do highlight the problem but when people pull together we can do amazing things, are you saying that this couldn't happen?

Its about time the consumer driven madness ended and we can start looking after the planet and sharing the resources

There's no reason to think this will be a bad thing unless you like things the way they are

Martin

[TheSupplyGuy]

People obviously don't realize the implications of 3%. Yes, in math 3% is small, unless you're dealing with a very large number. Keep the following in mind:
In addition to a 3% supply drop there will be a 2% demand increase.
The oil crisis of 79' was caused by a temporary 5% drop.

The rest of what you have to say are pretty good points. The biggest part of the problem will be how people react to the situation. The difference between the crisis and doomsday scenarios are how individuals react to less oil.

[Guest]

Thats true, we will be in for a real change some big problems facing our society
Its about time we had a change anyway, capitalism isn't really working.
Lets try something else

Lets hope the beer deliveries keep going,

Martin

[Doctor Doom]

Airlines, hotels, resorts, and casinos in Vegas

[Chichis]

Invest in PLASTIC. Buy tons of the stuff. Buy it in all shapes and sizes, for every possible post-oil world need. The stuff is durable and lasts forever. It will be useful to bartar well-fashioned plastic tools after things have settled down.

[MattSavinar]

My philosphy on investments is this:

A. In a "fast crash" - i.e. something happens, we all bug out and run for the hills, no invesment will mean anything except food, water, seed, and skills.

B. In a slower crash - one where we slip into a "Dim Ages" for 5-15 years, the right investments might help.

Example: I think silver is about as good an investment as you're going to see right now. So let's say I invest $10,000 in silver. Then as the debt bubble bursts, that might double in value. I can then use that wealth to continue to invest in things like taking classes or agriculutre, etc. . .

The idea is not so much "to get rich" (although there is nothing wrong with that) but to maximize your ability to acquire the skills/resources that will be valuable in a post-oil world.

Additionally, for somebody who needs medication - the right investments could be a life saver. For instance, let's say you're like my dad who needs thyroid medication every day. Without it, he would die in 3-4 days.

Well if his son is smart and invests silver and that silver doubles or triples in value, he can use that to purchase his medication, which no doubt will become more expensive as the market begins to dissolve.

Overall, I think you're better off in investing in acquiring skills. But there are some tangibles - like medication - for which money/investments is absolutely necessary.

Matt

[MadScientist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But there are some tangibles - like medication - for which money/investments is absolutely necessary.

[MattSavinar]

One of the "skills" I've began learning is alternative health care. Not so much herbs/vitamins/ but things like "energy medicine," hypnosis, etc. . .

I've been reading about what the ancient Hawainns did - they knew all sorts of stuff and were able to cure all sorts of diseases that modern medicine didn't even understand until the last 50 years.

I know some folks laugh at this type of stuff, but a lot of it really, really works.

For instance there is amazingly simple yet powerfull anti-anxiety drill I just learned that I will be posting in the next issue of the newsletter.

I'd post it here but I really need to draw a picture or photograph to make it simple.

Matt
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net