[marko]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sunspot', 'I')t's likely that Israel will attack Iran before March when Iran's oil trading "bourse" is, the last I know, scheduled to open. These will be "surgical" strikes on suspected uranium enrichment sites, some of which are in residential areas. If Iran retaliates - and they may not - this will likely lead to the closing of the Straits of Hormuz, cutting off 25% of the world's oil supply.

[Sunspot]

Maybe out of fear that if they do retaliate they'll get nuked into glass.

[marko]

Well, we can't get inside the heads of Iran's leaders, but I wouldn't think they'd be expecting a nuclear response to their launching of conventional missiles at oil tankers. Nor do I think a nuclear response would be likely. Cheney and Rumsfeld are stupid and crazy but I don't think that stupid and crazy.

[kmann]

Some serious money will go into exploration resulting in significant discovery. We won't hit peak this year, not even this decade. That doesn't mean there won't be some shortages though, with Asian demand increasing and the US consumption barely breaking stride after the hurricanes. Softer economic growth is likely, but I doubt we see any major recession, at least this year.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'S')ome serious money will go into exploration resulting in significant discovery.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Above', 'I') expect a repeat of what happened in 2005. Some hurricanes, some gas queues, ups and downs. Lots of PO hysteria.

[Wallygator]

Here are my predictions for 2006:

1. We will not see PeakOil
2. Oil supplies will still be tight.
3. Oil prices will not fluctuate wildly but will slowly inch forward.
4. Housing prices will slow
5. We will not have a recession just a lack lustre economy.
6. Iran will not get attacked. I find it almost unbelievable.
7. We will wake up one morning with Dick Cheney as president of U.S..
8. Avian flu will not become pandemic, except for our worries.

[lardlad]

Kunstler's predictions:
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary16.html

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'S')ome serious money will go into exploration resulting in significant discovery.

[syrac818]

My prediction:

This forum becomes even more dark and depressing. All remaining discussion of advancements, technology, renewables and conservation comes to an end. The hottest topics become "How I expect my body to look when I begin starving to death" and "Should I cut off my fingers just for fuck of it?".

Yeah... Not sure what's going on here, but to be honest it's gotten pretty bad. I remember when I first discovered peak oil and the tremendous dispair that went along with it. I came to this forum where I was told I would likely be sold into slavery or starve to death. Seriously. And for a while I just sort of gave up. I spent my time reading multiple websites where people discussed the slow hell that was upon us, and all I could think of was why nobody had done anything about this. Finally my boyfriend asked, "Well, what are you doing about this, besides talking to a bunch of people who are just as depressing?". A few days later I began volunteering for California's energy awareness campaign. I installed insulation and programable thermostats for elderly households on fixed budgets and talked to them about basic things they could do. I set up a few neighborhood carpools which took off after Katrina hit. And I passed out thousands of flyers. Did I stop peak oil? Of course not. But I was doing something, and I felt better.

I guess every person deals with this differently. And believe me, I have still been doing everything I can to try to prepare myself financially. I guess I'm just disappointed by this forum because I feel there are a lot of truly intelligent people here with a lot to offer. But instead of discussing ways to prepare for a decent future, they would rather share scenarios of how horrific it will all be. To me, the whole theme is very disempowering. There are organizations and companies doing a lot of exciting work in terms of shifting to a more sustainable system, particularly in the field of transportation. I'm not denying the gravity of the situation I'm just saying that we could all benefit from a new approach.

Best wishes for the new year. Take care - Syrac

[HonestPessimist]

My predictions for the year 2006, various assumptions based on my observations:

A short spike of $95-$100 PBO will happen this year, then drop down to a modest $60-70 for the time being until 2007.

The housing market will cool off for a time, reducing the potentiality of a burst to a minimum. A short bubble may occur this summer, given the right conditions in the right high-valued places by businesses expanding or consolidating their real estate portfolios.

The changing of the Fed Guard: Greenspan to Bernanke. It also mean the changing of a fiscal philosophy of Greenspan to Bernanke's own.

An possible attack on a huge Saudi oil facility this spring. You know what that mean in the aftermath for the world's oil markets.

The hurricane system hits the continental North America and the Caribbean islands prematurely. It will be more intense and more frequent than the last year's hurricane system.

New revelations about Castro's role in Kennedy's assassination, long hidden by the US government, may finally be brought to the light.

North Korea making more annoying noises in the six-party talks about its nuclear weapon developments. Uncomfortable noises, much to the chagrins of China and Russia more than to the US, South Korea and Japan.

Growing calls for technological innovations in the USA to seek alternative solutions to oil/gas for mass and personal transportation future. The living infrastructure would have to be radically transformed across the broad for years ahead.

A recession is possible toward the end of 2006 but it would be short-term.

Superman finally returns!

[medicvet]

I predict that one way or another the tinderbox that is the mideast will have a spark set to it.