[ivuernis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ivuernis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') don't even bother to try to inform people about peak oil anymore. If they're interested, they will already know.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')
I think that illustrates how Doomers don't even understand Economics 101.... blah blah discredit to the doomers blah blah

.

[holmes]

I took neoclassical/keynesian economics 101 in 1993. Has it changed? If not I understand enough to understand its Nothing more than:
Summer breeze makes you feel alright
Neon lights shining brightly make your brain ignite
See the girls with the dresses so tight
Give you love if the price is right
Black or white
In the streets there's no wrong and no right
so forget all that you see
It's not reality
It's just a fantasy
Can't you see
What this crazy life is doing to me
Life is just a fantasy
Can you live this fantasy life
Outasite
Buy your kicks from the man in the white
Feels alright
Powder pleasure in your nose tonight
See the men paint their faces and cry
Like some girl it makes you wonder why
City life sure is cool
But It cuts like a knife
It's your life

Aldo Nova Rocks!
and who can forget..

See the curtains hanging in the window
In the evening on a Friday night
A little light shining through the window
Lets me know that everything's alright


Summer breeze, makes me feel fine
Blowing through my mind
Summer breeze, makes me feel fine
Blowing through my, makin me feel all-right
Making me feel, making me feel fine
Makes me feel right
Blowing through the jasmine in my mind


see the paper layin on the sidewalk
a little music from the house next door
who lives next door?
so i walk on up to the doorstep
threw the screen and then i cross the floor


summer breeze makes me feel fine
blowing through my mind love
summer breeze makes me fine
blowing yeah your makin me all right
makin me feel making me feel fine
make me feel right
blowin through the jasmine in my mind...in my mind


sweet days of summer, the jasmine's in bloom
July is dressed up and playing her tune
when I come home, from a hard day's work
And you're waiting waitin waitin waitin there, yes you're waiting there
Without a care in the world


I see the smile awaiting in the kitchen
Food a-cooking and a place there for two
you, i feel the arms that reach out to hold me
In the evening when the day is through


Summer breeze, makes me feel fine
Blowing through my mind
Summer breeze, makes me feel fine
Blowing through my, making me feel allright
Making me feel, making me feel fine
Makes me feel right

Blowing through the jasmine in my, blowing blowing(x4)
Blowing through the jasmine in my, blowing

(skat)

Blowing through the jasmine in my mind

[holmes]

That melodie of summer breeze is just mezmorizing.. ahhh being atyke in the 70's listenign to the radio at the job sites(carpentry) with the uncle and dad. Maybe PMS knows that. Did seals and croft create the summer breeze tune?

[seldom_seen]

I think Aldo Nova has a little more than just jasmine blowing through his mind. I think he's been using his paper not for writing songs, but for rolling doobies!

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'M')y approach has been to weave the point of peak oil into the discussion as seamlessly as possible and just state a few basic facts like the population overshoot and the market indicators like gold and other comodities rocketing up. Sometimes I go too far describing some of the doomer scenarios and cause the discussion to stall as everyone considers the horriffic outcomes. But generally I pick my respondant and offer the level of doomerosity infomation based on what I believe the individual can and will likely accept.

In most cases if I find someone curious enough about it I recommend Life After The Oil Crash or to just google 'peak oil'. I have then followed up with people and have found that most have a general understanding but no where near the comprehension or acceptance of its consequences. Most have even dissmissed it and considered going out with a bang (in most cases I'm not sure if this means go nuts with over indulgence and then commit suicide, but I'm assumiming it is).

In the context of the post subject... I've become somewhat board with peak oil. I've been aware of it since July 2005 and I've been obsessively watching this forum since about September 2005. In that time I've read almost every concievable point of view and prediction. On the whole it has been a major part of crystalising what I now believe. However I am starting to get tired of the same ol same ol posts about predictions of the economy and the human condition. What I find inspiring are the posts about how to prepare.. See the Planning For The Future threads.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'O')ne of the extremely naive assumptions made by doomers is that within weeks or months of "Peak" everything will collapse.

[zoidberg]

After reading the replies I think I have an answer to my question:

No attempt should be made to convince anyone of anything. Insufficient data is available and the data that is available, is not entirely impartial. (oil reserves I'm thinking of). Plus as someone mentioned this winding down process may take a generation(or two) with declining production forcing the world into new equilibriums and consequently people just adapting to the changes. For example, lets say the US suffers some sort of massive inflation or a debt default. The world economy goes topsy turvy, recessions break out everywhere. Energy consumption plummets until supply far outstrips demand. A mini boom takes place, Peak Oil 2 hits, and lets say Japan and Russia team up to stop a Chinese oil grab in Siberia. War destroys a bunch of stuff, China is defeated and turns in on itself in a civil war. Demand again plummets, and once again Supply exceeds Demand. another mini boom takes place, until demand exceeds supply, something big happens and the equilibrium falls down to a new level. I think the time frame involved in that scenario is all people need. I think a child growing up in that type of atmosphere wont need much prodding to accept the virtue of conservative prudence. (Unlike us crazy, always grow, always milk kiddies)

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Give bobcousins a break, afew months ago I jumped off the wagon and believed everything would be alright, but I came back to my senses and now more pessimistic than what I was before. bobcousins will wakeup again soon.

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat should be enough for most reasonably educated people to look a bit deeper but they don't. I'll gladly converse with anyone who wants to talk about PO but people also have a responsibility to educate themselves to some degree.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I') think Aldo Nova has a little more than just jasmine blowing through his mind. I think he's been using his paper not for writing songs, but for rolling doobies!

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')
I think it does a real disservice to Peak Oil that we have a doomer website at the top of Google's search results. People are willing to accept the possibility that oil might hit $150/barrel and gas might cost $5/gallon. They aren't willing to accept the possibility that the world needs to change its worldview on energy.

Take a look at the Energy Technology thread right now. We're pretty convinced that nuclear can be a solution to peak oil. We have enough fuel recoverable at a net positive EROI- just from the ocean- to power the world for 5,000 years without reprocessing. (With reprocessing, it's enough for 250,000). Combine that with improving battery technology and PHEVs, and we might have a solution that avoids the doomer scenario. We can take a few steps to address exponential energy growth as we transition to nuclear, and hope that more is done in the next hundred years or so. I don't think we need a complete and utter paradigm shift in three or four years, and I don't think we need to be quite so shocking as to talk about stuff that will scare off folks within the first two standard deviations.

Here's how I sometimes frame it:
"A lot of smart oil geologists think we'll never see $35/barrel oil again. They claim that we've gotten most of the easy-to-find oil, and only the hard to get oil's left. Do you think it's time for us to start worrying about how dependent we are on oil?"
OR
"Why do you think oil prices are so high?"
(You'd be suprised. Most of my friends blame it on various groups a lot less than you'd expect. Then again, I'd like to think that most of my friends are pretty smart.)

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')
I think it does a real disservice to Peak Oil that we have a doomer website at the top of Google's search results. People are willing to accept the possibility that oil might hit $150/barrel and gas might cost $5/gallon. They aren't willing to accept the possibility that the world needs to change its worldview on energy.

Take a look at the Energy Technology thread right now. We're pretty convinced that nuclear can be a solution to peak oil. We have enough fuel recoverable at a net positive EROI- just from the ocean- to power the world for 5,000 years without reprocessing. (With reprocessing, it's enough for 250,000). Combine that with improving battery technology and PHEVs, and we might have a solution that avoids the doomer scenario. We can take a few steps to address exponential energy growth as we transition to nuclear, and hope that more is done in the next hundred years or so. I don't think we need a complete and utter paradigm shift in three or four years, and I don't think we need to be quite so shocking as to talk about stuff that will scare off folks within the first two standard deviations.

Here's how I sometimes frame it:
"A lot of smart oil geologists think we'll never see $35/barrel oil again. They claim that we've gotten most of the easy-to-find oil, and only the hard to get oil's left. Do you think it's time for us to start worrying about how dependent we are on oil?"
OR
"Why do you think oil prices are so high?"
(You'd be suprised. Most of my friends blame it on various groups a lot less than you'd expect. Then again, I'd like to think that most of my friends are pretty smart.)

[Chaparral]

Peak Oil will never get boring. Even when all the scenarios have been hashed out on this and other forums, there is still money to be made (or lost) trading the commodities during the slide/recovery/apocalypse/whatever. That alone will get me my adrenaline fix. It's alot safer than shark-diving and racing too.

[Cobra_Strike]

Hi, I am new here (been lurking a bit before joining) and I thought this thread would be a good place to start.

"We may not have a sound understanting of Economics, but we do understand that when you combine 25 parts of society that are failing miserably with no solution in site, that the conclusion is "Doom". I am not a Doomer because of Peak Oil alone, and I doubt any of the other Doomers are either."

I would have to agree with this sentiment. It is not the idea of peak oil that originally got me very interested in our economy. When I began to read about pension cuts I got worried about the future of our economy, reading about peak oil was sort of a nail in the coffin thing as far as I was concerned. A post peak world could keep the economy from doing anything other then slowly decline, and political situations would probably make any existing issues worse.

IMO any resource peak has very importent effects on growth, but emotion is what gets in the way of solving problems when they arise. Humans are a very emotional species.

[NugBlazer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'A')nyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed. The collapse will take decades, if not centuries. Unless your attention span is long, you will get bored of PO long before it has played out.

[Cobra_Strike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NugBlazer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'A')nyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed. The collapse will take decades, if not centuries. Unless your attention span is long, you will get bored of PO long before it has played out.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Battle_Scarred_Galactico"

Anyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed.[b]


True.

However, anyone who wants wars, last ditch desperado tactics and military adventures will think all their Christmas' have come at once. .$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '<')/div>

[yoda]

bobcousins and other optomists: I have been lurking here for quite some time, and have been listening to all of the arguments, just trying to learn as much as I can.

I fully believe that "doom" and sudden crash of "life as we know it " are relative, and will differ for each individual. For me, and my family it is already beginning.

I can no longer afford to heat my house. When we purchased the house, propane was around 1.00 a gallon. It is now 2.48 a gallon in my area. This means that we have to keep our thermostat at 50 during the day, and 45 at night, to afford the current rate. It was 15 degrees here yesterday. If prices go up much more, we will be draining the water lines to prevent freezing, and going even lower with the thermostat. Not sure how we will get water then. It will not take much more of an increase to make us just give up.

We can barely afford gas for the car. We make NO unnecessary trips, and will only drive to work and back. Even with this adjustment, we are struggling to provide food and necessities to our family.

I think we were middle class not that long ago. The rising cost of fuel is having an incredable impact on my life TODAY. I do not know how long we can survive if prices go up any more. You come tell my cold and hungry children that peak oil is not going to happen all at once. It sure happened all at once in my house, and all in the last year and a half.

[Wildwell]

Peak oil is like constipation. You wait unnecessarily for ages waiting for nature to take its course, not quite sure when it’s going to happen or what things are going to be like when they get to the other end!