[zoidberg]

I was thinking, what if peak oil plateaus for 5 years before beginning to drop? A lot of innovative techniques for getting oil out of old wells are being explored, what if that mitigates natural declines for some time. How will the public be educated about that if they look at the numbers and dont see a decline, only incremental growth(or minor drawback which could theoretically be attributed to something else like Hurricanes, terrorists etc..). How could an uneducated Average Joe believe the doomsayers(or realists as you prefer)? Why would they believe that they should sacrafice in the name of conservation and the future if they think that their loss is someone elses gain?(Assuming energy expands to meet demand)

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'I') was thinking, what if peak oil plateaus for 5 years before beginning to drop?

[Colorado-Valley]

I don't even bother to try to inform people about peak oil anymore. If they're interested, they will already know.

I think an argument could be made that Iraq and all its death could be blamed on peak oil ... not to mention all the resource wars of the future.

[ivuernis]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') don't even bother to try to inform people about peak oil anymore. If they're interested, they will already know.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ivuernis', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I') don't even bother to try to inform people about peak oil anymore. If they're interested, they will already know.

[mekrob]

I go to this one college discussion board every now and then and the people on it are very intelligent, so I thought I'd try to see if any of them had even heard of it. I only got two responses. One was asking what it was but was already skeptical, and the other was a flat-earth idiot "Oil is always being made, its a stupid environmental ploy, etc" People, at least Americans, for the most part don't want true knowledge, they just want the ability to blame others.

[kyzmiaz]

Ditto: I am old enough to (somewhat) remember the energy crisis of the 70s.

I remember long lines at gas stations; odd / even days; locking gas caps; the coldest winter ( 1976 / 1977 ) around here in 200 years; turned back thermostats; laid-off work due to natural gas shortage; etc.

I tried to educate people back then. You could almost feel their brains shut down when tying to explain that oil was a finite resource and we were overly dependent on it.

Access to plentiful, cheap oil was seen as if a God given right.
Greedy Arabs, greedy oil companies and politics were to blame.
A few people, forced by higher gasoline prices bought more fuel efficient cars.

People soon forgot the 70s and bought huge vehicles and built huge homes.

Because I remembered the 70's, I bought 9.5 acres of land in 1985 where I built my modest sized 1638 ft2 (walk-in pantry included), super insulated, water source geothermal heat pump heated and cooled,
passive solar tempered, 9.9 KW photovoltaic powered total electric, net-zero energy home.

Forget trying to educate people.
Take action based on more expensive energy future - not a no energy future.

[RacerJace]

My approach has been to weave the point of peak oil into the discussion as seamlessly as possible and just state a few basic facts like the population overshoot and the market indicators like gold and other comodities rocketing up. Sometimes I go too far describing some of the doomer scenarios and cause the discussion to stall as everyone considers the horriffic outcomes. But generally I pick my respondant and offer the level of doomerosity infomation based on what I believe the individual can and will likely accept.

In most cases if I find someone curious enough about it I recommend Life After The Oil Crash or to just google 'peak oil'. I have then followed up with people and have found that most have a general understanding but no where near the comprehension or acceptance of its consequences. Most have even dissmissed it and considered going out with a bang (in most cases I'm not sure if this means go nuts with over indulgence and then commit suicide, but I'm assumiming it is).

In the context of the post subject... I've become somewhat board with peak oil. I've been aware of it since July 2005 and I've been obsessively watching this forum since about September 2005. In that time I've read almost every concievable point of view and prediction. On the whole it has been a major part of crystalising what I now believe. However I am starting to get tired of the same ol same ol posts about predictions of the economy and the human condition. What I find inspiring are the posts about how to prepare.. See the Planning For The Future threads.

[Heineken]

PO is the least boring subject I ever encountered. It is a unifying principle. It galvanized my intellectual life.

[bobcousins]

It's interesting to speculate that we have already effectively reached the peak, and we are in a plateau right now. I believe we are seeing the corrective actions from the market that are predicted by economic theory. Namely, that prices rises, which both reduces demand and encourages investment in new supply and alternatives. One of the extremely naive assumptions made by doomers is that within weeks or months of "Peak" everything will collapse. While there are tipping points in the system that could cause collapse, PO is not one of them. Instead what we are seeing is a gentle braking of the economy caused by high oil prices. So far score 1 to economics and 0 to doomers.

I guess that Doomers will not accept that we are already at peak, because that denies their super-spike theory. Ironically, while prices stay in reasonable bounds, both Doomers and optimists will be saying Peak will be in a few years yet. It will be interesting to see what Doomers have to say when supply slowly declines and prices don't spike.

But, and its a very big but, the real impacts wll not come until the end of this plateau phase. Either supply will resume its upward trend like the optimists at IHS/CERA think (unlikely!), or supply will start an inexorable decline like everyone else thinks. The impact of terminal decline could cause a sufficient shock. However, I think the economy and politicians will be forced to adapt. This may lead to austerity, but still not necessarily sudden collapse.

Anyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed. The collapse will take decades, if not centuries. Unless your attention span is long, you will get bored of PO long before it has played out.

[Daculling]

I used to talk with people I know about PO but I stopped because it sometimes gets too personal and upsetting to both parties. Now I only mention it to people I know are intelligent and they mostly seem to already know about it or somehow sense that something is not right even if they have not heard the term.

When I sent one of my friends to a PO website and later asked him what he thought about it he stated "It made my head hurt so I stopped reading it". I realized at that time that it was pointless to try and inform most people.

Now my brother-inlaw is another story. While he says that he does not believe that there is a serious crisis he always blames any of my sister's complaints on her "Crazy petroleum fueled lifestyle" and then she says "We're all gonna die". Then we all laugh... it's kinda dark.

[Heineken]

Demand for oil (and NG) continues to rise, bob. More important, the infrastructure for oil and NG use continues to be built, and at an accelerating rate; our general dependence on these fuels grows accordingly. Meanwhile, supply continues to show clear signs of peaking. As the two lines cross, a severe discontinuity is inevitable. Other outcomes are possible, but they do battle with Economics 101.

[aahala]

The public will not grasp the nature of the energy problem until there's
an extended period of substantial and consistent price increases.

This will not likely occur until the plateau of total non-renewable energy
resources has past. Peak oil or peak NG or peak coal isn't enough for
the reality of finiteness to sink in. Only the totality of these resources
will cause this realization reflected by higher prices.

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')hat's an easy excuse. The truth is, if you tell people you've planted an idea in their mind. If you don't tell them at all, they won't have the faintest idea of what could be going on.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Anyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed.

True.

However, anyone who wants wars, last ditch desperado tactics and military adventures will think all their Christmas' have come at once.

Yuletide greetings.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'D')emand for oil (and NG) continues to rise, bob. More important, the infrastructure for oil and NG use continues to be built, and at an accelerating rate; our general dependence on these fuels grows accordingly. Meanwhile, supply continues to show clear signs of peaking. As the two lines cross, a severe discontinuity is inevitable. Other outcomes are possible, but they do battle with Economics 101.

[holmes]

"Never once has anyone responded to either of my posts. I find that weird. It's like a taboo topic or something. "

I do not find it weird at all. U see we are bred, weaned and owe our entire "success" on oil. Our brains are hardwired by oil beginning at the insertion and conception point. It is the underlying material to the fabric. Its like its part of our genes. Not a second thought. It will take an entire paradigm shift to make the masses understand otherwise.
Its not even considered as a resource. It just is. like air. It will take a whole reawaking to understand that oil is not really part of the human genome.
Its scary to even comprehend how much energy consumption is taking place each year. 80 million born each year. as I like to say: oil is the wine, coal is the daily bread and gas is the holy water. Cheap oil is absolutely the building blocks to the entire modern infrastructure. In all ways. I cant blame anyone oil is in the womb from day one(well besides mercury, dioxins, heavy metals, etc... Purity. LOL. I cant blame anyone either that has faith in the market or neo classicla economics. That goes with oil in the womb from day one. and I also do not think many folks go beyond the TV and city either. Urban areas are growing at 2.2 million acres a year in the US alone. So there.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '[')b]Anyone thinking PO will cause collapse over a few years will be sorely disappointed.

True.

However, anyone who wants wars, last ditch desperado tactics and military adventures will think all their Christmas' have come at once.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'D')emand for oil (and NG) continues to rise, bob. More important, the infrastructure for oil and NG use continues to be built, and at an accelerating rate; our general dependence on these fuels grows accordingly. Meanwhile, supply continues to show clear signs of peaking. As the two lines cross, a severe discontinuity is inevitable. Other outcomes are possible, but they do battle with Economics 101.

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'D')emand for oil (and NG) continues to rise, bob. More important, the infrastructure for oil and NG use continues to be built, and at an accelerating rate; our general dependence on these fuels grows accordingly. Meanwhile, supply continues to show clear signs of peaking. As the two lines cross, a severe discontinuity is inevitable. Other outcomes are possible, but they do battle with Economics 101.