[Lokutus]

Okay, dumb question from a noobie.

Are we really running out of NG too?

I'm confused because some claim that the world is running out while others claim that bountiful NG will replace oil in some applications.

Can anyone point me to a definitive article or site where I can get this answered once and for all?

What is the consensus, if any, of the PeakOil.com Braintrust [sup]TM[/sup] ?

[aahala]

I'm not part of the brain trust.

Here's a link of US withdrawals. I have posted it before in reply to
some posters comments the US was suffering significant declines.
I don't see that (yet) in these figures:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm

The rest of the world seems to depend on where you are talking about.
Some places are having declines and there are some areas that seem to
have significant yet fully developed NG resources.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'C')an anyone point me to a definitive article or site where I can get this answered once and for all?

What is the consensus, if any, of the PeakOil.com Braintrust [sup]TM[/sup] ?

[Lokutus]

Should I discount what Julian Darley claims in High Noon for Natural Gas?

James Howard Kunstler too? He predicted a big NG shortage this month.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')hould I discount what Julian Darley claims in High Noon for Natural Gas?

James Howard Kunstler too? He predicted a big NG shortage this month.

[savethehumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you live in Nigeria or Quatar, NG is readily available.

[linlithgowoil]

as with most doom laden predictions, the predictions for an NG cliff have not been realised. america has likely peaked though, from what i have read, but it may be that increased drilling and the coming on stream of LNG will prevent a cliff.

UK has peaked and is in decline, but in the next couple of years we are getting new pipelines from norway/russia and lots more LNG terminals. we should avoid an NG crisis for at least another 10 years if not more.

there is a lot of NG out there and it will all be exploited soon enough.

peak NG wont occur for decades yet.

[MD]

Natural gas may not have peaked world wide, but there are definitely supply problems in North America, unless you buy into price gouging and market manipulation theories.

[backstop]

Lokutus -

yes, of course NG is running out - it's a finite resource that we're consuming as fast as possible for due to the prevailing ideology of maximizing arbitrarily-measured financial growth at all costs (including the cost even of our own childrens' prospects).

Furthermore, that ideology has demanded the destruction of gas at oil-wells just to get it out of the way of oil-production - I've yet to see data on just what percentage of global reserves have been so wasted.

A sane and equitable ideology would acknowledge that the remaining NG reserves belong to say the next 10,000 generations, and would ration it accordingly - which seems unlikely to happen this week . . . .

As to how long society will remain able to provide you with NG, (and how long you'll be able to afford it) is an open question, depending largely on how quickly and how far PO & CC are allowed to disintegrate the coherence of our global society.

regards,

Backstop

[Trab]

I'm hardly an expert, from from what I've been reading here and elsewhere, the US NatGas industry has been drilling like crazy just to keep production levels stable. That doesn't sound like a scenario that has much room for growth in supply levels to me.

Now there may be huge reservoirs of the stuff hiding off the coasts of Florida, California, etc, or in ANWR. It won't help us in the short run even if it is there due to time-to-market issues and whatnot.

We've dodged the bullets that Kunstler et. al. have predicted due to a relatively mild winter over large parts of the US. Here in Minnesota, except for one cold snap in early December, it's been above-average temps for most of the winter heating season so far. My Natural Gas bill is going up, but not by a totally unreasonable amount. It seems to be in-line with the increases I saw last year and the year before, excepting, of course, that this year I'm setting the thermostat to a daytime high of 67 instead of 70, much to the wife's disgust.

If the weather gets cold for any length of time, all bets are off. Long-term forecasts here show us in good shap until at least the 3rd week of January. February is usually the coldest month of the year, though.

[poolentgreen]

BrainRust is more my predicament than Braintrust or should I say, Trust my brain won't rust until I find a niche in the soon upcoming predicament!

For rock hard evidence of LNG peaked in US, look at price increases first, double and triple last year's rates in some places, I've heard. Then, to dispel thoughts of manipulated profiteering by industry, see gas producers requiring COD from distributers and in turn, distributers requiring COD from customers in more and more "middleclass" neighborhoods - formerly the bread & butter of their profits. This "pre-pay only" policy is increasing fast and many distributers are exiting the business as more of their customers are defaulting credit accounts. Certainly not the textbook strategy as found in the classic, "Building Wealth For Robber Barons 101".

So, absent price gouging, what's left except true supply shortages?

I agree, we lucked out with such a delightful winter (so far). Of course, with my luck (fate), this will be the precursor to terminal global warming and I'll wake up the "Day After" to 5' of Atlantic Ocean and hammerhead sharks swimming around my trailer here in what will be formerly known as the Florida penninsula, looking for an easy meal.

Thom Madden

[shakespear1]

Eastern Europe is not lucking out and is having what the metorologists promised. A Cold Winter !!!

Eventually this will visit North America one of these winters.

[Doly]

What is COD?

[gnm]

Cash On Delivery. Or "Check On Delivery" - It usually means they will not float account balances.

-G