[AmericanEmpire]

What price for a gallon of fuel do you think all hell will break loose? As in people get angry enough to start fuel riots or whatnot.

There were actually truckers parking their rigs and many threatening too when diesel fuel was above 3 dollars after Katrina.

I don't know because what my wife and I can afford for fuel is more than the average American household can since we're not as debt ridden and have more disposable income. Most people are just working from paycheck to paycheck. Unfortunately to those of us that are more responsible with our money, its these people who are going to bring the whole damn thing down when they can't buy things because they are so debt ridden.

I know this because people at work are complaining since we are going to a two week pay system. They claim its gonna cause them hardship. I was thinking WTF when I hear that. People live that tightly? Man, some people couldn't handle any kind of emergency. People really never expect bad things to happen and so live that much above their means? We don't make a lot of money but we live in a small apartment, and we watch what the hell we purchase and make sure we always have a small cushion.

In fact I've pretty much gotten to the point I don't buy many consumer goods at all anymore other than food, gasoline, and electricity. Now granted if everyone only bought the basics the economy would go in the shitter. Thats whats so fucked up about this whole thing is that our economy and way of life is based on lots of worthless shit.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', 'W')hat price for a gallon of fuel do you think all hell will break loose? As in people get angry enough to start fuel riots or whatnot.

[holmes]

good people I know and have been friends of the family forever and are in the oil and gas industry down in CO for many many years say 6 bucks a gallon the US economy in its present growth based form will not survive. it already is falling apart now. So when gas is 6$ a gallon nationwide and solidly in place nationwide how can this last? I want evidence that proves our entire industrial and social infrastructure can support this and is not dpendent on cheap oil. Prove it. so far it can not. If you call sending our iundustries away to cover up the costs of resources as proof. I call that a lie. a phantom. Do the math on 6 bucks. they have and they are no politician/economist agenda getters. I agree with them 95%. The 5% Is if we power down. Oh and I do beleive it will become hell like. Just give decline the time.Its just how long can we stave off that real increase from 5 to 6 bucks. To me thats the threshold. Im sure it can survive 5.99 in a lean pruned mode. over that common sense and logic say we are straining the natural resources big time that supply the whole charade. 75% of the US is either on welfare or hittin the streets at 6 bucks a gallon.
merry christmas and Happy new year!

[Lokutus]

SHTF @ $3.95/gallon.

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', 'M')ost people are just working from paycheck to paycheck. ...its these people who are going to bring the whole damn thing down when they can't buy things

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y then our economy will have adapted to low power living

[elroy]

You know, it's still kinda funny that your gas prices are rediculously cheap compared to gas prices over in Europe. Ofcourse a lot of it is taxes, but it all comes out of the same wallet when you fill up your tank. When converted from euros to dollars, and liters to gallons, prices here are at $6.04 per gallon already.

[pedalling_faster]

"Blockbuster DVD rental $4.95
Pack of Marlboro's $2.95
Star Wars tickets $8.95
DSL service $35/mo.
1 oz. low-grade marijuana $265"

sounds like an ad for Mastercard !

i think it depends on the incident that triggers the shortage, that leads to the rise in price.

another hurricane damaging oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico would be different than a blockade in a key shipping lane.

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, and adapting means a sizable percentage of the current population will not be here. Without modern fossil fueled farming there is no way in hell we can feed the current population.

[The_Toecutter]

Many need to take into account that Europeans can afford $6+/gallon because:

a) Most Europeans in urban areas have access to inexpensive and somewhat convenient mass transit that Americans do not have access to outside of Portland or New York

b) Europeans have access to low-maintenance fuel efficient cars that the auto industry refuses to sell in America despite clear demand for them (They are less profitable than high maintenance SUVs and high maintenance econocrap)

Due to the politics in America, mass transit is currently not available to most, and is often expensive and very time consuming to use for those who do have access to it. Thus people practically need cars here, and thus gas. Mass transit in the form of trolleys and other light rail used to be available, convenient, and very cheap and worked very well, until the auto industry, oil industry, tire industry with the go ahead from big nanny government bought it all out and tore it down to force Americans into costly auto reliance. This grew the economy by taking more money from Americans and getting it into the pockets of executives and shareholders, along with plenty of taxpayer dollars siphoned by politicians and given to industry as favors from various highway bills. Corporate welfare at work.

In America, I'd say $3/gallon is about the tipping point for economic recession, $6/gallon for economic depression, $9/gallon to begin a collapse. These figures should be adjusted for inflation accordingly and must be sustained over a period of approxamately 3 months.

For Europe, $8/gallon for recession, $14/gallon for depression, $20/gallon for collapse. These figures should be adjusted for inflation accordingly and must be sustained over a period of approxamately 3 months.

But it's all meaningless guessing anyway. I'm an engineer, not an economist. But then again, you won't find many useful and/or honest economists anyway.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat price for a gallon of fuel do you think all hell will break loose? As in people get angry enough to start fuel riots or whatnot.

[frankthetank]

Some forget that 6 dollar gas will cause MASSIVE problems in other places (it all connected remember)...that money has to come from somewhere so
A. Timmy doesn't drive, therefore doesn't spend his money renting porn.
B. Timmy drives and charges his porn.
C. Timmy drives but can't afford good porn, so rents cheap midget porn.
D. Timmy gets layed off from burger world/lack of porn causing him to join the hordes roaming the streets in hungry bands looking for food/porn.

Moral being is the economy will go to shit causing layoffs...

No job...No money.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'M')any need to take into account that Europeans can afford $6+/gallon because:

a) Most Europeans in urban areas have access to inexpensive and somewhat convenient mass transit that Americans do not have access to outside of Portland or New York

b) Europeans have access to low-maintenance fuel efficient cars that the auto industry refuses to sell in America despite clear demand for them (They are less profitable than high maintenance SUVs and high maintenance econocrap)

[spear]

Theres lots of scooters here in southern Europe.Easier to get around in the traffic.Plus it runs all week on half a gallon of gas.

[JoeW]

We've been over this so many times. But for the sake of doing a little math, let's look at it one more time.
I'm going to use nice round numbers instead of exact figures because I have an engineering degree.
US GDP is about $10T
2005 GDP growth is being called about 4%. That's $400B of growth.
Total US oil consumption for 2005 was about 20mb/d * 365 days * $60/b. My engineer-brain registers about $400B. If we instead spent $800B on the same quantity of oil, that would wipe out our GDP growth. That means that the price would have had to average $120/barrel in 2005 to prompt 0% GDP growth and put us into the recession zone. $120/barrel divided by 42 gallons per barrel is about $3 per gallon crude oil...that's probably $4/gallon at the pump.
A sustained run-up to $5 or $6/gallon would certainly appear recessionary. But temporary spikes don't do much to the average. Also, a gradual increase to a very high price level could allow for continued GDP growth.
Anyhow, that's how I figure it. Mutiplying and dividing makes me feel more confident than just throwing out numbers.

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')uropeans also drive a lot of ultra-high-mileage personal vehicles. Scooters and motorcycles are ubiquitous there, a curiosity and/or hobby here.

[eastbay]

Ok JoeW, I'm ok at basic math too... let me know if this math works.

If oil runs up to say, $1,500/barrel that would mean about $50/gallon for gas and would cost the US economy about $10T which would leave about $0T remaining for all the other 'stuff' Americans buy.

How would the US economy do under such a scenario??