[Heineken]

True, but it doesn't matter, RdSnt. No one person, not even a "good Hitler," could change the course we're on. We can't get from here to there without losing several billion along the way, no matter what we do or don't do.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I')OW...the more power you have to make changes - wealth, influence, etc. - the least likely you are to want to make changes. You've got it good under the current system. Under a new system, you might find yourself at the bottom. Why would you want to change when you've already won the societal lottery?

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tinosorb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')hy would you want to change when you've already won the societal lottery?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are plenty of people who don't "got it good under the current system," but they aren't demanding change either. I am more interested in that phenomenon. Perhaps they consider their situation merely temporary.

[mark]

I think we all agree that peak oil is a symptom, but a symptom of what? The ready answer - an unsustainable industrial economy leaves too many unanswered questions; such as, what could we have done differently? Who or where did the mistakes come from? Why have we not seen the problem until it's too late? Confusion reigns until you've identified the real issue behind the symptom.

A symptom of what? Solve that question and you'll understand what we have to do.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'I') think we all agree that peak oil is a symptom, but a symptom of what? The ready answer - an unsustainable industrial economy leaves too many unanswered questions; such as, what could we have done differently? Who or where did the mistakes come from? Why have we not seen the problem until it's too late? Confusion reigns until you've identified the real issue behind the symptom.

A symptom of what? Solve that question and you'll understand what we have to do.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')here are plenty of people who don't "got it good under the current system," but they aren't demanding change either. I am more interested in that phenomenon. Perhaps they consider their situation merely temporary. Or perhaps our police state is so well organized and so hermetically sealed that protesters can't ever really gain traction.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'I') think we all agree that peak oil is a symptom, but a symptom of what?

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
There are plenty of people who don't "got it good under the current system," but they aren't demanding change either. I am more interested in that phenomenon. Perhaps they consider their situation merely temporary. Or perhaps our police state is so well organized and so hermetically sealed that protesters can't ever really gain traction.

[Heineken]

Absolutely, desertbear2. That's a superbly worded "filling in the blanks" of what I wrote. Funny, just the other day I thought of "busy-ness" as being a big reason for the inertia, and magically that factor appeared in your post! People are all wrapped up in their little, on-the-go lives and don't have time for effecting major change or even for thinking about it.

Yet another factor is the psychology of previous investment. People are literally invested in their lifestyles and would be loathe to lose money by radically retooling. Even if not retooling means losing everything later on.

And yet, revolutions have happened throughout recent human history. I guess a certain critical mass has to be achieved first; revolutions are almost by definition reactive rather than proactive. The only way a revolution will work to avoid the converging disasters we face is if it is proactive rather than reactive. Very unlikely, given human nature.

[dukey]

"the only real option is radical transformation"

agreed
we need to completely restructure and re-organise the economy
It has to happen right now, and it needs a a guiding hand to make it happen (the government) otherwise it will only happen through the destruction of the economy, like never felt before

[Aqua]

I second that but no prizes for guessing which option will prevail. Look what happened to Jimmy Carter the last time someone with power and influence tried to make radical transformations to the status quo. If anything things have gotten worse since then, to ask the general public for sacrifice and hardship is political suicide and every politician in the western world knows it.
Change will come but it sure as hell won’t be voluntary in nature.

[Leanan]

Hmmm. It's not just Mr. Newberry. The whole financial world is now taking peak oil more seriously.

Oil Analysts, Wrong Since 2001, End Forecasts of Price Drop

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Bad Calls

Oil analysts got it wrong this year, predicting that prices would average $40.33 in 2005 [actual was $56.67]. Wall Street had forecast that oil would be $26.81 during 2004, the December 2003 survey showed. Instead, crude in New York averaged $41.40 in 2004.

"The dynamic shifted this year,'' said Doug Leggate, senior oil analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York. "There was a growing perception that supply was running out. The doomsday scenario that stated OPEC couldn't meet demand and the Saudis wouldn't be able to increase output gained traction.''

Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based energy investment bank Simmons & Co., wrote in Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy' that about 90 percent of Saudi Arabia's oil output comes from seven fields, including three that have pumped for more than 50 years. Some fields are expected to rapidly decline with few replacement sources, he said.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Arjun Murti in New York, who roiled oil markets in March by saying crude may reach $105 a barrel, said in a report on Dec. 12 that his forecast may be conservative if the "peak oil'' theory is right. He forecasts oil of $50 to $105 a barrel until 2009.

[JohnnyReb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are plenty of people who don't "got it good under the current system," but they aren't demanding change either. I am more interested in that phenomenon. Perhaps they consider their situation merely temporary.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.') To say that it is harder to get "ahead" on any large scale since the US peak isnt true in my opinion.