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Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby thuja » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 21:20:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
')I tend to think that the more people know the better. If the majority of the public is unaware of what is happening, it will make navigating the crisis that much harder. People will flail about in confusion and bewilderment. If people know, they will make personal decisions that may soften the blow of collapse for themselves and others.

However, if what you're hoping for is for the planet/nature/people to get over this crisis with as little damage as possible. I think the best thing you could hope for is very high depletion rates as we slide down the peak. This would arrest the machine in its tracks.


My subject heading for this thread is a bit of a misnomer to get people to think. I hope larger groups of people begin to learn about PO- but I am fearful of the reaction that is likely to occur on a large scale. It won't be--

"Oh lets learn to conserve, do with less, stop consuming as much and plant veggies inthe backyard." It will be, "Drill a hole anywhere that has oil, mine coal as much as possible and build them fricking nuke plants!"

The cornucopians here on this site are all for the nukes, not wanting to look at

1-we can't grow forever in a world of finite resources
2- waste/nuclear weapon proliferation threatens human species viability

So I am afraid we're going down the path of freaking out and then doing possibly irreversible damage to the planet in a mad dash to keep the party going. So yes, in a way I do hope for high depletion rates so the powers- that-be don't instigate their "mitigation" plan. And yes, I think its happening already to some degree but that its not in full speed because the populace at large isn't behind it 100 percent. Give them a couple more cold winters though...
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby Liamj » Fri 16 Dec 2005, 22:35:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ') I hope larger groups of people begin to learn about PO- but I am fearful of the reaction that is likely to occur on a large scale. It won't be--

"Oh lets learn to conserve, do with less, stop consuming as much and plant veggies inthe backyard." It will be, "Drill a hole anywhere that has oil, mine coal as much as possible and build them fricking nuke plants!"
..
I suspect that people having better information and a working world view and will push us towards the former, but am not pretending its provable. It makes a handy hook to hang my optimism off, anyway.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby OneLoneClone » Sat 17 Dec 2005, 12:31:32

Wanting to keep Peak Oil information from the people is completely elitist and undemocratic.

It is also stupidly selfish, in the most egostical way. Seeing all of the people who are not aware of peak oil as panicky 'useless breathers' is pretty ugly. Some of those people might have excellent ideas or skills to bring to bear on the problem.

I guess some of the die-off crowd thinks mass ignorance of peak oil increases their own survival chances. Maybe they are right.

Ugly thoughts for an ugly situation.

DNA always has been a selfish molecule, I guess.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby SurvivalAcres » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 19:51:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e will then be forced with powerdown instead of trying to put off the inevitable for a couple more decades.


Powerdown will be pleasant compared to massive starvation. We are facing massive die-off of our population, worldwide.

The underlying purpose of civilization is food production. The very foundation of civilization is now being disrupted. We will very rapidly lose our ability to maintain the present population levels. Powerdown is among the least of our problems.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby clifman » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 15:38:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'Y')es, it might happen that way, but only in the case that the education effort (and representative democracy) fails.


Representative democracy has already failed. Have a good look at what Diebold machines accomplished in Ohio in '04. And now Ohio's making it illegal to challenge election results. And that's just the tip of the iceberg on the voting front. Even absent that, look at the effect that corporate money has on our political process. The only representation with any clout in our system is that of the fat cat corp's. "We the people" lost our influence a long time ago. Corporate ownership of the media accomplishes the same end regarding the "education effort". All the masses get is the corporate line - buy and be happy. When there's no more bling to buy, we'll have no idea what to do, and it will be too late for education - only (fairly desperate) action will suffice at that point. Whether that desperate action means picking up a hoe to plant a garden, or picking up a gun to take provisions from others... well, upon that choice lies our collective fate.
The generations of the 20th & early 21st centuries have decided to burn it all and leave nothing but charred remains for those who (may) follow - without apology.

Read William Catton, Derrick Jensen, Paul Chefurka, Daniel Quinn, Alexis Ziegler, Kevin Anderson, Jennifer Francis, Guy Mac...
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby Jenab6 » Sun 25 Dec 2005, 14:39:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I')t is grim to wish that human misery might come more quickly but maybe the best hope for the long-term survival of our own species and of others as well.

It is way past time people began to think that way. Some of us had this higher consciousness before we became aware of peak oil. People always die, no exceptions. The wise work for racial survival first, as a duty that calls and as a dictate of a mature judgment.

The plain fact is, we are in overshoot. There is no way whatever for everybody to survive. But all the deaths that will happen, sooner than otherwise, aren't important. The suffering entailed is regretable, but that really isn't important, either. What matters is whether there will remain any of those who are among Earth's most intelligent, most creative, most adaptable, most athletic, most morally responsible, and otherwise best.

If the culling of the post Peak Oil die-off results in a better human race, then this apocalypse will actually have been a good thing. But otherwise, it will be a great calamity for a great many individuals without racial recompense, and the waste of a eugenic opportunity that comes only once in the lifetime of a world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'O')nce the misery starts the wars start.
Nations who have them willl not hesitate to use them if the alternative is to loose the oil fields.
Once the nukes are started, they ahve to be finished within 4 hours or retaliation comes.
once all nations rataliate, and 40 thousand million megatons are deployed there is no long term survival, rest assured.
I would not want to be left standing,
your vegetable garden will be un-edible.
P.S. nukes will be used. Rest assured

I think you are right that nuclear weapons will be used at some point. But you exaggerated the aggregate thermonuclear yield by a factor of 100,000.

There are probably about 40,000 nuclear bombs/warheads in the world, and a good guess at the average yield is 10 megatons. So that's 400,000 megatons.

Using all those nukes at once would probably trigger a flash of terrestrial heat, which might cause a few winter hurricanes before it dissipated to space. The lofted dust would block the sun, so the heat flash would be followed by a nuclear winter lasting about five years.

With enough oil to tide us through that winter, we could make it. Without the oil, I'm doubtful about our chances.

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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby medicvet » Wed 28 Dec 2005, 05:07:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I') am with you, Thuja. There is going to be a mad scramble as the awareness dawns on people and probably a lot of environmental destruction, coal burning, etc., no matter what. But the less that capital is redirected into new energy regimes in advance of the crisis, the more likely the crisis is to diminish capital.

It is grim to wish that human misery might come more quickly but maybe the best hope for the long-term survival of our own species and of others as well.


Once the misery starts the wars start.
Nations who have them willl not hesitate to use them if the alternative is to loose the oil fields.
Once the nukes are started, they ahve to be finished within 4 hours or retaliation comes.
once all nations rataliate, and 40 thousand million megatons are deployed there is no long term survival, rest assured.
I would not want to be left standing,
your vegetable garden will be un-edible.

P.S. nukes will be used. Rest assured


Someone please explain to me why this is not the most likely outcome of peak oil? Because frankly that's the way I see it too. That doesn't mean that I am not trying to prepare best I can..it does mean however that I am not sure how much good it is going to do in then end. If it weren't for my children, I wouldn't even see the point of it at all..but I do need to give them something..

I feel very bad that we have given our children such a messed up world. :(
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.-H.G. Wells

The only basis for a nation’s prosperity is a religious regard for the rights of others. - ISOCRATES
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby Eddie_lomax » Sun 01 Jan 2006, 17:36:41

Someone please explain to me why this is not the most likely outcome of peak oil? Because frankly that's the way I see it too. That doesn't mean that I am not trying to prepare best I can..it does mean however that I am not sure how much good it is going to do in then end. If it weren't for my children, I wouldn't even see the point of it at all..but I do need to give them something..

I feel very bad that we have given our children such a messed up world. :([/quote]

Can't argue with a collapse, we are definately in overshoot, but if civilisation falls apart in the next 20 years after peak oil I reckon it'll have to be due to the financial system collapsing instead of energy supplies diminishing.

Getting back to the original topic, I don't think peak oil awareness is a bad thing, but I do believe it won't make an effect. Mainly because the mass of the population won't understand/care and will just grasp onto the first bad idea a politician hands out as a "solution".

As an example there are so many people I've met who never think about the future - I remember someone telling me that LPG will be the fuel of the future because its cheap... (I like in the UK, but no one seems aware that the north sea is depleting so fast). Even our goverment are clueless, just two years ago natural gas was the way forward - doh!

To sum it up, if most of the population have their cheap consumer goods they don't care about anything else, when peal oil takes their cheap goods away will it be too late anyway ?
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby Liamj » Sun 01 Jan 2006, 18:47:41

Even if rapid collapse is unavoidable, "peak oil awareness" (which i suspect and hope is a red pill for the ecological worldview) does and will have benefits at every stage, assuming you believe humans act logically or magnaminiously at least some of the time. Better information increases chances of better decisions.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 12:03:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst of all, people will become aware sooner or later whether they like it or not.


I wouldn't count on it. People are dumb as a sack of rocks. People are gonna be looking for a scapegoat to blame. They are gonna say if it wasn't for those damn environmentalists we could drill our way out of this problem.

I've talked to people who really think the USA could drill its way to energy independence if it wasn't for environmental laws, nevermind that the USA peaked in the 70's.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 12:05:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst of all, people will become aware sooner or later whether they like it or not.


I wouldn't count on it. People are dumb as a sack of rocks. People are gonna be looking for a scapegoat to blame. They are gonna say if it wasn't for those damn environmentalists we could drill our way out of this problem.

I've talked to people who really think the USA could drill its way to energy independence if it wasn't for environmental laws, nevermind that the USA peaked in the 70's.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby AmericanEmpire » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 12:16:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omeone please explain to me why this is not the most likely outcome of peak oil? Because frankly that's the way I see it too. That doesn't mean that I am not trying to prepare best I can..it does mean however that I am not sure how much good it is going to do in then end. If it weren't for my children, I wouldn't even see the point of it at all..but I do need to give them something..


Yep, one of the things I'm glad of in all of this is that I don't have a child to have to provide for.

When I first learned about peak oil I was wondering how I was gonna survive when everything goes to shit, but I don't much give a damn about it anymore (the surviving part). When things start to go really dowhill I think its probable I might off myself. A life of suffering and misery is just not worth it to continue.

I'd rather go to sleep for eternity by my own hand. That'll be a great deal because I'm not afraid of death just the process of getting there. And starvation, freezing to death, or being brutally killed by the lawless gangs doesn't appeal to me.

If we could have a peaceful powerdown and survive but just with lots more manual labor and community support that is one thing. But thats not was gonna happen. It may be like that one day in the future after the dieoff but getting there is gonna be absolute hell on earth. I can't see any pretty way of us getting down to carrying capacity.

Its gonna become cutthroat competition for dwindling food and energy supplies. I'm not willing to steal and kill for what I need to survive so I know I'm a gonner.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby zoidberg » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 14:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omeone please explain to me why this is not the most likely outcome of peak oil? Because frankly that's the way I see it too. That doesn't mean that I am not trying to prepare best I can..it does mean however that I am not sure how much good it is going to do in then end. If it weren't for my children, I wouldn't even see the point of it at all..but I do need to give them something..


Yep, one of the things I'm glad of in all of this is that I don't have a child to have to provide for.


Its a little early dont you think to start preparing to fall on your sword eh?
Even if I didnt have a child(which I do) I would still be preparing to take whatever action was necessary to ensure my survival and provide for offspring to continue my line. Thats how us life forms do things y'know.

Never Surrender!

Besides peak oil isnt the end of the world. Its the start to a new chapter. It may be a depressing chapter, but still 500 years from now this may be a instructive history lesson to our descendant's hydrogen/fusion powered society.
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby thuja » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 15:36:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')Besides peak oil isnt the end of the world. Its the start to a new chapter. It may be a depressing chapter, but still 500 years from now this may be a instructive history lesson to our descendant's hydrogen/fusion powered society.


Ughh- this is my fear exactly...I am not pro die-off... if we could powerdown into a sustainable energy society while gradually diminishing the population through decreased births over the next 50-100 years, I would be ecstatic. But if we collectively decide on a "great leap forward" through the miracles of nuclear and coal, we could create the foundation for extinction.

The combined threat of nuclear arms being built by "rogue" postpeak nations, endless nuclear contamination and increased greenhouse gasses from coal could lead to catastrophic conditions even worse than the population decreasing from 6 billion to one billion. How about 6 billion to a few thousand?

So increased awareness leads to a quicker response by right wing/fascistic political leaders offering quickie solutions to the desparate masses who will easily choose the nuke/coal option to try to sustain their "non-negotiable" style of living. In that case I choose die-off over extinction...
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Re: Why Peak Oil Awareness is a Bad Thing

Unread postby Liamj » Mon 16 Jan 2006, 20:58:51

Thats why sitting back and watching it happen isn't actually an option. Sure things will almost definately get worse as we currently value things, but theres worse and then theres apocalyptic, and our current trajectory leans towards the latter. Saying "well if i can't have popup toasties i wont play" does nothing for current or future life, and you'll kick yourself when your feared future demonstrates the difference between a boring diet and famine, between a semi-functional democracy and totalitarian fascism.
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