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Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby CARVER » Wed 21 Dec 2005, 11:23:48

From The Future of Money by Bernard Lietaer:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hree consequences of the way interest is built into the current money system:

1) Interest indirectly encourages systematic competition among the participants in the system.

2) Interest continually fuels the need for endless economic growth, even when actual standards of living remain stagnant.

3) Interest concentrates wealth by taxing the vast majority in favour of a small minority.

...

Indefinately compounded interest in the material world is a mathematical impossibility.

...

Was it the concern for social justice and stability that previously motivated all three major religions - Judaism, Christianity, and Islam - unanimously to prohibit the practice of charging interest? It is intriguing that after interest became officially legal, almost all countries have felt the need to create income redistribution schemes to counteract at least part of this process. Some of them, such as the welfare system and progressive taxation, are increasingly being criticized for their ineffectiveness. Is this the fault of the overly efficient money system, or of the inefficient redistribution schemes? Or both?


The Terra TRC White Paper:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ess Developed Countries (LDCs)
Currently, as a direct result of currency instability, LDCs suffer from a lack of investments. Furthermore, the degradation of terms of trade with developed nations, and the scarcity of hard currencies create debt traps resulting in the inability to repay foreign loans.

This is illustrated by the comment on his country’s debt made after the G8 summit in Okinawa in 2000 by President Obasanjo of Nigeria: “All that we had borrowed up to 1985 or 1986 was around $5 billion. So far we have paid back about $16 billion. Yet we are being told that we still owe about $28 billion. That $28 billion came about because of the foreign creditors’ interest rates. If you ask me what is the worst thing in the world, I will say it is compound interest.” When President Obasanjo spoke out, the developing world was spending $13 on debt repayment for every one dollar it received in foreign aid and grants.
...
Demurrage-Charged. The Terra is a demurrage-charged currency. A demurrage charge acts like a parking fee, incurring a cost over time to its holder. The cost for holding onto the Terra currency is estimated at 3.5%-4% per annum and corresponds to the costs incurred for storing the physical commodities included in the Terra basket. This demurrage charge insures the currency’s use mainly as a planning, contractual and trading device: it would not be hoarded but always tend to remain in circulation. It would thereby strongly activate commercial exchanges and investments wherever it circulates. In short, the Terra purposely fulfills only two of the three traditional monetary functions. It is designed to serve only as unit of account and medium of exchange, and not as a store of value.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby hotsacks » Wed 21 Dec 2005, 12:20:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', '"')Interest rates are the product of inflation".
I would argue that interest rates,rather than being an equitable device,are the most effcient means of increasing capital,the lender assuming next to no risk or responsibility for the outcome of a transaction.The current credit practises of banks bear this out.JD pointed out the Islamist system involves the lender in the results of a transaction.It seems plain this would nurture caution on the creditor side,and slow growth.


you're partially right, which is why you have slow, slow growth in the ME because due to 'relationship banking' it is not what you know, but who you know that determines who gets capital for their projects resulting in wasteful investment and lower growth.

that is why bank of america did not lend any money to Walt Disney in the 1960's because who is going to visit a theme park in Annaheim? Why would any sane banker lend money to a start-up like Microsoft to take on an established industry leader like IBM?

if you don't want to borrow my money, don't. I may or may not like your business plan, you or your business.

and by the way, when AT&T split itself up into baby bells who paid the price? the bond holders. their blue chip, investment grade bonds were all of a sudden junk bond status. who says the lender bears no risk? the G7 just wrote off billions of dollars in debts unpaid to the developing world. lenders are just in the process of writing off debts to Iraq run up under previous management. Russia is negotiating for a haircut to repay their loans to the Paris Club. Argentina defaulted on $260 billion in debts to international investors including a sizeable chunk of unsophisticated retail investors in Italy for example.

lower risk = lower growth which is fine if that is your objective.


Mr.Bill: Thank you for making me think here.
There are certainly many cases where creditors get stung.But in most cases of large volume $$$,they have recourse in the way of raising interest rates or 'bank charges'. Credit card charges are classic examples interest rate inequity - people of less means effectively finance the more efficient members of society.In the cases of nations defaulting,the lending practises,and goals, of the IMF are questionable.
I think I was clear in stating the absolute need for slower growth must lead to a revised policy on interest rates.In a shrinking world,doing otherwise will lead to collapse/revolution.We're hurtling towards the few over the many polarity that history proves is self defeating.
Can you suggest a more effective means of slowing growth than curtailment of interest rates,before the silent hand smacks us in the head?
Carver references Litauer.What are your thoughts on his model?
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby Doly » Wed 21 Dec 2005, 12:43:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You cannot abolish interest. Interest is a natural outcome of human behavior.


I'd say interest is a natural outcome of the fact that some loans are defaulted. But most interest is above what the bank needs to cover their risk. I'm not sure that is a natural outcome.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Environmental damage and population growth would be even worse, because they are unrelated to economic growth.


A bit of faulty logic there, isn't it? If they are unrelated, they can't become worse as a consequence. You may say that the relationship goes in the opposite direction if you want. In that case, provide some kind of argument, please.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Of course, if by 'reducing growth' you actually mean the collapse of society and the death of hundreds of millions, which is what your policy of eliminating investment will bring, then I suppose ruining the economy is a good way of achieving that.


I don't think reducing growth necessarily means the collapse of society and the death of tons of people. Countries that don't do too well economically don't generally suffer enormous calamities. Cuba, as far as I can tell, isn't pro-growth, at least not in the common sense of the word.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Interest rates are a product of inflation.


Or is it the other way round? I'm trying to understand things here. What actually causes inflation? I thought it was because if most companies are making a profit, prices must go up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If economic stability and even growth is attainable without population growth why are no countries pursuing that avenue?


The reason most developed countries are trying to keep population figures up, as far as I can tell, has mostly to do with pensions. You can't pay the pensions of so many old people unless you keep up the number of workers. I suspect the current retirement age is too soon for a sustainable economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')When I loan money to a company “buy shares” they do not guarantee me an interest rate on my money. If the company does well they pay a dividend and that is the reward for lending my money so we still have investment and profit.


Yes, but if chances weren't better of making a profit than of not making it, people would be a lot less interested in the stock market. The economy isn't a zero-sum game. There are more profits than losses.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 21 Dec 2005, 13:08:14

That is a pretty tall order.

First of all I applaud Carver for his convictions, but I do not think an alternative currency is necessary. For one, we already have competition between currencies, so we have alternatives. In many countries with 'soft' currencies, local goods & services are priced and actively trade in the home currency. This is similar to an alternative to the dollar or euro which is a 'hard' currency and used for buying imports into the economy. Correct me if I am wrong? Both currencies work in parallel and if one or the other gets out of line than the imbalance is corrected either with a) buying/selling in the FX markets, b) domestic inflation or deflation, c) a revaluation.


Debit and credit cards are simply a marketing gimmick. Consumers can also prepay their cards or use a pre-paid card. Contrary to popular belief access to credit is a privilege not a right. If interest rates on credit cards are too high. Don't use them or pay them off on time. They were never designed to be a form of welfare or income transfer. The banks also have to absorb bad debts when they extend credit cards to lower income earners. My advice is to buy shares in banks or buy credit card backed securities (ABS) if you think this is a free ride with no risks.


As for the last question about curtailing growth I can think of some ways. My comments may be geared here to the US market. It is hard to give a one size fits all response.

I would decrease consumption by raising taxes, eliminating the budget deficit, permantly decreasing the nations debt, putting a fuel surcharge on all carbon based fuels and use the money raised to fund alternatives. No energy taxes can or should be used to build roads or fund general budget outlays or wealth transfers.

I would eliminate all deductions for any reason. Preferably I would have a flat tax. Perhaps first of all with some tax credits for lower income earners, but they would be phased out as well. I would pass laws to make deficit budgets illegal (perhaps over a term of say four years).

I would increase the minimum reserve requirements that banks have to pay to the Federal reserve. There would be no exceptions for off-balance sheet items. All financial institutions would be supervised and regulated the same. No hedge funds, no banks, no insurance cos., no mutual fund exemptions or special treatment. I would make capital gains, interest income and corporate taxes all at the same rate to curb financial engineering.

I would make consumers fund the full cost of all consumables they use including recycling and land reclamation. This would end the use of limited liability companies where the environment is concerned. Performance bonds for reclamation would have to be posted in advance.

I would abolish all pay as you go systems like Medicare and pensions. All future liabilities have to be fully funded. Companies cannot use surplus funds from their pension accounts as profits but must be reinvested. I would eliminate any interest expense deduction on private homes. I would impose road taxes charged by distance driven and vehicle weight.

Government would get out of the income redistribution game except for emergency relief and administering certain safety net programs. That would preclude paying any subsidies to business. Public works projects or public R&D would have to be clearly defined. Government would be consigned to supervision, regulation, public safety, etc. as well as ensuring the health and safety of its citizens through national defence and guarding national borders. Company officers would become legally liable for any corporate malfeance.

Well, I think most of these measures would go a great way to curtailing demand without interferring in the economy or the way it works. Of course, it would also cause a recession/depression and be hard to implement, but over time it would strengthen the economy. One hard part would be to impose import duties on goods entering the country to cover (only) the cost of recycling so that imports compete fairly with domestically produced goods.

That is the short answer. I am sure we could debate each point in isolation. Some may see it as draconian, but really the system the way it works now is far more bizarre.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 05:33:23

Utility Defaults on $17Bln Debt

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')tility Defaults on $17Bln Debt

By Leonard Anderson and Michael Erman
Reuters
SAN FRANCISCO / NEW YORK -- Embattled U.S. power producer Calpine filed for bankruptcy late on Tuesday, weighed down by $17 billion in debt and court battles with creditors over how to use its cash.

Calpine, squeezed by a credit crunch and a weak merchant power market that resulted from the collapse of Enron and the California energy crisis in 2000-01, said it filed petitions to restructure under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan.

Calpine, which listed assets of $26.6 billion, said many of its subsidiaries also filed for bankruptcy.

Of the creditors holding the 80 largest unsecured claims, Wilmington Trust is trustee for the six largest positions -- notes worth more than $4.5 billion.

Analysts said a bankruptcy filing had been likely after a Delaware court ordered Calpine to repay $312 million to creditors who challenged the company's use of proceeds from assets sales to buy natural gas to fuel its power plants. Calpine had said it was able to pay the money by a Jan. 22 deadline.

Calpine said it received commitments for up to $2 billion of secured debtor-in-possession financing from Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse First Boston.

California energy market experts have suggested Calpine's bankruptcy would look in many ways like an airline insolvency -- its 3,300 workers would keep working, power plants would keep running, and operations would not be disrupted.

"Our plan calls for power plants to remain available for operation to provide reliable supplies of electricity," chief executive Robert May said in a statement. May, who helped steer recoveries at HealthSouth. and Charter Communications, took over the reins at Calpine on Dec. 12.

Calpine, based in San Jose, California, is a major supplier to the state's electricity grid, providing 5,250 megawatts of the grid's capacity.

On Monday, California Attorney General Bill Lockyer filed an emergency petition with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission seeking to force Calpine to continue supplying electricity under long-term contracts with the state if Calpine goes bankrupt.

Calpine said it would continue to evaluate all opportunities to strengthen its balance sheet and improve its cash flow, including asset sales and reductions in operating and overhead costs.

Calpine went on a credit-fueled power plant building spree in the late 1990s, putting together one of the largest independent power systems in the U.S. But when electricity markets collapsed after the California power crisis and the Enron scandal, merchant generators like Calpine were hit with rising credit costs and declining prices for their electricity.

Utility Defaults on $17Bln Debt
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby Doly » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 09:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')First of all I applaud Carver for his convictions, but I do not think an alternative currency is necessary. For one, we already have competition between currencies, so we have alternatives.


Comments like that show that money people and techies think in completely different ways. Techies, to understand something, will try to take the pieces apart, see how each piece works, and then start wondering: "What if I changed this piece?" On the other hand, money people aren't into taking apart anything. Money people take things as they are and try tinkering with them. If a little tinkering won't do, maybe lots of it.

When a techie suggests an alternative currency, it means that they notice there's something in common in all the currencies we see today, and they want to alter one of these basic parameters and see what happens. But the money man will say: "But look, we already have plenty of currencies! Why not tinker with the existing ones?"

I'm not sure that tinkering will get us out of the problem that economy, as is, isn't sustainable. On the other hand, I can also see that the techie solution of throwing the previous design away and starting from zero isn't workable.

Is there a practical way of going about it? I don't know.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 10:36:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')First of all I applaud Carver for his convictions, but I do not think an alternative currency is necessary. For one, we already have competition between currencies, so we have alternatives.


Comments like that show that money people and techies think in completely different ways. Techies, to understand something, will try to take the pieces apart, see how each piece works, and then start wondering: "What if I changed this piece?" On the other hand, money people aren't into taking apart anything. Money people take things as they are and try tinkering with them. If a little tinkering won't do, maybe lots of it.

When a techie suggests an alternative currency, it means that they notice there's something in common in all the currencies we see today, and they want to alter one of these basic parameters and see what happens. But the money man will say: "But look, we already have plenty of currencies! Why not tinker with the existing ones?"

I'm not sure that tinkering will get us out of the problem that economy, as is, isn't sustainable. On the other hand, I can also see that the techie solution of throwing the previous design away and starting from zero isn't workable.

Is there a practical way of going about it? I don't know.



That may be how it looks to you, but of course for brevity we did not explore every angle although I have read Carver's post before.

Far from not understanding the nitty gritty, I understand how the various markets do come together, Doly. Although there are experts in various fields like financial engineering that are more knowlegable than I am. But, I have traded free floating currencies, currency baskets, fixed currencies, non-deliverable forwards, theoretical units, and non-convertable currencies. They all have one thing in common, they pretty much do the same thing. They do what they are designed to do and that is facilitate commerce. They may or may not be good long-term stores of value. Other instruments may perform that role better.

However, script and many alternate forms of currency have been tried before both on a small scale and a large scale and they have their advantages and disadvantages. Food stamps or ration books are another alternative means of paying for food for example. So it is not that I don't want to take something apart, but I am also very busy. If you want to take apart our monetary system and come back with a better one, let me know. I will be happy to comment on it. However, I find large holes in most of the alternative suggestions made.

On the extreme scale were unconvertible communist currencies (and others) which work fine for domestic transactions, but are not covertable into hard currency. The USSR was desparate for hard currency. They tried to trade vodka and tractors for grain because they didn't have the dollars or deutschmarks or pounds or francs to pay for their imports and no one wanted rubles. Even within Russia you had hard currency shops and ruble shops. In ruble shops the shelves were bare. If that is not an alternative currency system then I do not know what is?

To rephrase. Electronic bookkeeping and paper currencies work just fine for facilitating transactions despite what some may tell you. If you do not trust your home currency as a store of value then sell it and buy stocks, or bonds, or commodities, or real-estate, or whatever you feel is a better store of value. Ultimately, if you are going to pay anyone in an alternative currency, this will depend on the marginal utility that those currency units will buy for the time and work invested. If someone is not willing to do hard farm labor for minimum wage and no healthcare benefits they are not likely to work for a mock currency which they cannot spend in the shops either.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby hotsacks » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 11:26:03

I tend to agree,but with this caveat.
Mr Bill's proposals place the invoice for powerdown in the hands of the voters.They pay the freight.The wealthy would have to ante up more cash for services but they have the means to pay.Those who live in creditland,the majority,would have to live like peasants.The upshot would be political instability.This type of change would require an authoritarian state.
Why the resistance to capping interest rates? I can only think it comes from those who profit by them.Growth is good,to paraphrase Gekko.It's difficult to argue with success: free market monetary policy has made all of us in the western democracies relatively rich.The problem is the system worked too well.
It has been the fashion for a good while to scoff at moral objections to interest charges. A person who would charge for the use of money,and the person who would pay for the service,were once regarded as enslaved to each other.The old paradigm was based on a belief that hard work yielded a living,and that it was wrong to profit from another's labor."Neither a borrower nor a lender be." This antique philosophy was guided by the survival instinct to preserve balance in the workaday world, and to distrust easy wealth.It was a goatherder's POV.Populations fluctuated according to resource availability.With the advent of usury,money to follow one's dreams became available and goatherding fell out of fashion.Along with the goats went instinct and individualism.The shepherd now had another master than nature.His eye was fixed on growth:he had to make money to pay back the original debt plus interest.He tore up the earth and emptied its waters to do this.
I sketch this fable for its kernel of truth.Modern growth oriented societies are dependent on interest charges as the main instrument of raising capital.By tinkering with them,we might be able to adjust growth rates and to direct our attention to goals other than short term profits.I see no reason for an adjustment invoking collapse.It's apparent at this stage that trickledown isn't happening, and that wealth is more and more concentrated in the hands of a few.This fact alone argues for structural change,one that penalizes the haves more than the have nots unlike a flat tax.The wealthy will pull in their horns and sulk but the birds wil still sing,if any are left.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 11:31:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he stock market system above all demand growth. No growth, no dividend. Depositers don't want to put in 100% and take out 67% of their savings. Especially if they have no idea where that 33% went?


Depositors do that all the time. In Japan the current savings account interest rate is .001%. You would need a $1,000,000 deposit to make $10 in interest. At the same time, it costs $2 to make an ATM withdrawal, and $4 to do a direct deposit. So, in the course of a year, you pay $100 in fees, and make $0.10 in interest. So you are actually getting a negative interest rate, and you would be better off keeping your money at home in cash, in a shoe box, so you don't have to pay fees. But nobody does that.

(P.S. You and Daryl are right about Islamic Banking. I looked into it more closely, and it is based on accounting tricks.)
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby Daryl » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 12:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '(')P.S. You and Daryl are right about Islamic Banking. I looked into it more closely, and it is based on accounting tricks.)


I believe the Catholic Church used to enforce a similar law. That's the reason Jews got into finance in Medieval Europe. Catholics weren't allowed to charge interest. It's also one of the motivations behind the many persecutions of the Jews. Catholics could wipe out their debts by murdering their lenders and expelling them from their cities.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby lakeweb » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 13:52:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')nterest rates are a product of inflation.


No they are not. Until the establishment of the Federal Reserve Act there was no permanent inflation. Interest is an instrument of wealth accumulation. It was the bane of the Populist farmer. The more productive they became, the more they fell victim to the deflation of the product they created. And the bankers fought them all the way. Any fledgling coop was doomed because banking would not extend the credit. Why would they when they could demand higher rates on an individual bases?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')nflation erodes the future value of money.


Inflation can only exist in a fiat monetary system. You can't erode the value of a fixed asset.

Image

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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby lakeweb » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 14:25:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') would decrease consumption by raising taxes, eliminating the budget deficit, permantly decreasing the nations debt, putting a fuel surcharge on all carbon based fuels and use the money raised to fund alternatives. No energy taxes can or should be used to build roads or fund general budget outlays or wealth transfers.


That's a tall order for the U.S. Considering the quality of debt, rampant deflation would likely set in. Our neck is out there. We can't compete with China's labor. Decreased consumption would come as a result of high unemployment, which would come from decreased consumption. Deflation is a vicious cycle that is almost impossible to break.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')ell, I think most of these measures would go a great way to curtailing demand without interferring in the economy or the way it works.


You can't take decades of imbalances and just 'fix' it without addressing the fundamentals.

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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby CARVER » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 16:31:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '.').. Money people take things as they are and try tinkering with them. If a little tinkering won't do, maybe lots of it.

I may be a techie, but this is not my idea, and not my field of expertise, but I'm learning as I go. The author Bernard Lietaer (who I'm quoting so often that it starting to look like spam) however is a 'Money man'. Like MrBill he has been a currency trader. He has worked at the Central Bank in Belgium where he was responsible for the design and implementation of the euro. He currently works at the Center for Sustainable Resource Development at the University of California at Berkeley. So he had a lot of expertise already, but he has been all around the world to see how money works, what the effects are. He has been looking at the money of the past, and money today. What has been tried, what changed, what were the consequences. So his ideas are not just theory, he has been looking at what happens in practise. In his book he gives numerous examples of complementary currencies in use today and those used in the past. Which for me makes it a lot easier to believe. He is not dismissing empirical data when it does not comply with a theory.

So far I haven't found a 'complementary currencies debunked' article yet, so I'm just reading a bit through conventional economic theories. MrBill if you see problems in these ideas and have time, I'd be happy to hear them, or just point me in the direction where I should look.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I')'m not sure that tinkering will get us out of the problem that economy, as is, isn't sustainable. On the other hand, I can also see that the techie solution of throwing the previous design away and starting from zero isn't workable.

Is there a practical way of going about it? I don't know.

What I especially like about his idea is that it does not require to do away with the current system and start from zero. You can just add these complementary currencies to the existing system, they are designed to work in parallel with the existing system. The Terra is designed to have an automatic stabilization mechanism, which I think could be replicated manually with policies and regulations, but I don't have a lot of faith in such a centralized control (over the last 25 years 87 nations have been affected by currency crises), and prefer a built-in automatic stabilization mechanism.

Also the best time to introduce these complementary currencies is when the economy is in a downturn, because of the additional economic stimulus the Terra provides during the bust of a business cycle.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby CARVER » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 17:39:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', 'I')t's apparent at this stage that trickledown isn't happening, and that wealth is more and more concentrated in the hands of a few.This fact alone argues for structural change,one that penalizes the haves more than the have nots unlike a flat tax.

I recently read an interesting paper about redistribution and progressive taxes: Rivalry and Redistribution (mainly Chapter 8 and 9, starting on p. 22):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here is not much evidence that countries with a large welfare state and substantial redistribution have worse economic performance and welfare.
...
Increasingly, economists have come to realise that people’s happiness does not depend on money and absolute levels of consumption alone – see section 5. If everybody works hard to get more income and spend more, they do not necessarily become happier. The extra income one earns makes other people unhappy, so this adverse externality should be corrected for by a progressive tax on labour income. People engage in wasteful rat races which leave less room for leisure and provide additional grounds for progressive taxes (Akerlof, 1976). Developed societies have a tendency to work too hard, display rat races, consume too much and enjoy too little leisure. Efficiency can be improved with a progressive tax system in second-best economies. This is interesting, because the neo-liberal agenda (the ‘Washington Consensus’) stresses the harmful effects of progressive taxes on incentives and economic activity.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 05:00:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', 'I')t's apparent at this stage that trickledown isn't happening, and that wealth is more and more concentrated in the hands of a few.This fact alone argues for structural change,one that penalizes the haves more than the have nots unlike a flat tax.

I recently read an interesting paper about redistribution and progressive taxes: Rivalry and Redistribution (mainly Chapter 8 and 9, starting on p. 22):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here is not much evidence that countries with a large welfare state and substantial redistribution have worse economic performance and welfare.
...
Increasingly, economists have come to realise that people’s happiness does not depend on money and absolute levels of consumption alone – see section 5. If everybody works hard to get more income and spend more, they do not necessarily become happier. The extra income one earns makes other people unhappy, so this adverse externality should be corrected for by a progressive tax on labour income. People engage in wasteful rat races which leave less room for leisure and provide additional grounds for progressive taxes (Akerlof, 1976). Developed societies have a tendency to work too hard, display rat races, consume too much and enjoy too little leisure. Efficiency can be improved with a progressive tax system in second-best economies. This is interesting, because the neo-liberal agenda (the ‘Washington Consensus’) stresses the harmful effects of progressive taxes on incentives and economic activity.


I notice this quote dates back to 1976? Right after the first energy crisis when inflation was rampant and interests high? I think a lot has changed in the minds of many economists and governments regarding taxation since then. The development of the Laffer Curve for example that shows how lower marginal taxes actually make people better not worse off.

Basically, I do not want higher taxes as they not only redistribute wealth from those that earn it to those that do not but also because they are very indiscriminant. They not only tax away higher salaries, but they discourage innnovation, discriminate against those that work harder than average, discriminate those that get more education and reward below average effort and achievement.

If I work 12-hours a day in a stressful environment, what right does a government on behalf of society have to come and take away progressively more of my income to give to someone who does not work as hard as me or take as many risks? It is also proven that higher marginal tax rates and more complicated tax codes lead to widespread tax evasion making criminals of those who are just trying to protect the fruits of their own labor and leads to capital flight. I am more in favor of a flat tax, no deductions, no exceptions, no minimum and then tax creditss or rebates for the poorest in society. This is ultimately far more equitable than progressively higher taxation.

The author is correct that absolute income and consumption do not lead to happiness alone. There is a great body of evidence that suggests happiness is indeed relative. However, he is wrong to assert that there is not much evidence that countries with a large welfare state and substantial redistribution have worse economic performance and welfare.

My own research into risk management in emerging markets points to government interference leading to economic mismanagement; leading to shortages and delays from incompetence, which leads to small scale bribery to get things done, like for instance getting a telephone connected from the state agency in a few weeks instead of a few months (if you remember state telephone cos. in the 1970's); and of small scale bribery leading to larger scale, organized corruption, which when full blown (as it is in many emerging markets) leads to state cleptocracy (as evidenced today in much of Africa).

I do not think it is any accident that Mr. Barasso's first task was to simplify EU lawmaking and pass fewer laws as well as repeal bad legislation that does not make any sense. This was very bright on his part. Stop strangling the economy with unnecessary rules and regulation. Small, efficient government, supported by lower and simpler taxes. That should be the aim. That will create more employment than any alternative currency will.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby Doly » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 07:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')mall, efficient government, supported by lower and simpler taxes. That should be the aim. That will create more employment than any alternative currency will.


I don't have anything against this concept per se, but how does that help to sort out the economy in a peak oil scenario?
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 09:31:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')mall, efficient government, supported by lower and simpler taxes. That should be the aim. That will create more employment than any alternative currency will.


I don't have anything against this concept per se, but how does that help to sort out the economy in a peak oil scenario?


I gave quite a number of reccommendations or call them suggestions in a previous post about how to reduce growth and therefore consumption without using interest rates, like eliminating deficit spending and reducing the debt while increasing energy taxes.

But, there was another comment about capping interest rates again, so someone still is not getting it. Low interest rates set below the productive capacity of the real economy are stimulative, encourage over-investment, growth and are ultimately inflationary. If you want to slow growth you need high real interest rates.

However, the theme drifted from reducing growth to alternative currencies and their effect on unemployment. The two topics are not really linked at all other than to say full employment would generally use more energy not less. Unless someone is somehow employed in sectors that do not use energy? Pick & shovel work? Picking up litter? Planting gardens and harvesting by hand? That kind of thing.


So I will turn the question around. How will a large, inefficient government, supported by higher marginal tax rates in a complex system reduce energy use or solve peak oil other than to create more unemployment of the kind that sparked unrest and riots in France early this year?


But if we are talking about quality of life and not just consumption then I would argue smaller and less complicated is a whole lot better.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby hotsacks » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 10:48:58

",,,someone still is not getting it."
That would be me.May be my original argument was fatuous.I was thinking more along the lines indicated in lakeweb's post:that central banking is oligarchic and runs against the common sense proposition that the worker should profit in proportion to his/her work.Without quibbling about the meaning of'work',my thinking is that people who provide neccessities in societies are the real workers.Farmers,builders,mechanics;that sort of thing.Investment banking may be stressful but it produces nothing tangible except more capital for further investment.The oil markets right now are a good illustration of how speculation drives prices.Our lives are predicated on the guesswork of crystal ball gazers.We pay for goods in terms of perceived value,not real value.Currently,we perceive big homes and big cars to have great value;and basics like food to have little.
My question is: how did this BS start and how (if?) can we defang it?
I still hold that those who have profited the most with the least input of real value should be reined in.It seems the banking model in use is at the heart of the problem.
Thank you Mr.Bill for clarifying the effect of capping interest rates.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 11:15:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', '"'),,,someone still is not getting it."
That would be me.May be my original argument was fatuous.I was thinking more along the lines indicated in lakeweb's post:that central banking is oligarchic and runs against the common sense proposition that the worker should profit in proportion to his/her work.Without quibbling about the meaning of'work',my thinking is that people who provide neccessities in societies are the real workers.Farmers,builders,mechanics;that sort of thing.Investment banking may be stressful but it produces nothing tangible except more capital for further investment.The oil markets right now are a good illustration of how speculation drives prices.Our lives are predicated on the guesswork of crystal ball gazers.We pay for goods in terms of perceived value,not real value.Currently,we perceive big homes and big cars to have great value;and basics like food to have little.
My question is: how did this BS start and how (if?) can we defang it?
I still hold that those who have profited the most with the least input of real value should be reined in.It seems the banking model in use is at the heart of the problem.
Thank you Mr.Bill for clarifying the effect of capping interest rates.




Well, I won't disagree that in general farming is a tough business, full of risks and that many farmers are under paid for their efforts. That is a quandry. Perhaps peak oil and scarcity will address these issues better than I can?

If you want to read a really boring article on tax specialists, go to this link. The flood of material weaknesses related to tax reflects a lack of expertise It talks about $150-200K salaries, bonuses and guaranteed contracts for tax specialists just because their is a dearth of talent and Sarbox has placed increasing burdens on tax and disclosure on public companies. It is pretty archane, but I make the point due to your remark about 'what do they produce' and infer that if I 'make' real things that somehow I have done real work, but if I have only worked with my 'brain' that I have not done anything.

Who placed these burdens on these companies? The public. After each Enron, Worldcom or Tyco scandal the greater public good is served by heaping more and more rules on businesses. These rules and fines plus criminal charges if you ignore them stifle investment and innovation while making it necessary to hire scores of lawyers, accountants, finance specialists, bankers, auditors and other specialists instead of concentrating on 'making' something. Simplify the rules, set the companies free, get back to the basic concept of caveat emptor.

Not to get personal, but who are you to tell me what is work and what is not work? The market place values my labor as a banker/treasurer/asset manager/trader more than it did when I worked as a carpenter. If I wasn't a banker, I may go back to construction again. It is no big deal for me. Building houses was in many ways far more enjoyable and rewarding. I certainly would not mind raising draught horses on the farm instead of working in an office 12-hours per day. And by the way, I neither have a large home, multiple family autos or any debt so wealth does not have to mean consumption. My hobbies are mostly ski touring, hiking, biking, swimming and the outdoors. My choice.

I guess we might all define what is work and what is valuable according to our own preferences. Is the designer of a laptop less of a craftsman than a metal worker? Are metal workers that use machines less craftsmen than those who work only by hand? Are jewelers more artisans for their fine work than ferriers?

So yes, in the future, if we revert to some sort of pre-19th century powered down existance then craftmanship may come back into fashion. Imagine a man working for a month's wages doing hard manual work to be able to afford a horse. And another month to be able to afford the saddle. And scraping together for years to buy a house if he is lucky.

In our specialised economy we have bred interdependence, but we have also wrought efficiencies. These efficiencies have made many of life's previous luxuries affordable to the many. It may not be sustainable, but it has been a marvel to behold. Imagine average workers retiring with pensions and medical benefits at 55 or 60 instead of working until they drop dead and die.

Knock it if you want. I will likely make the transition from banker to carpenter to farmer quite easily. At least I know what the otherside looks like because I have been there already. I wonder what everyone else will do? Merry Christmas.
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Re: Eliminate exponential growth Population/Finance

Unread postby hotsacks » Fri 23 Dec 2005, 12:50:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', '"'),,,someone still is not getting it."
That would be me.May be my original argument was fatuous.I was thinking more along the lines indicated in lakeweb's post:that central banking is oligarchic and runs against the common sense proposition that the worker should profit in proportion to his/her work.Without quibbling about the meaning of'work',my thinking is that people who provide neccessities in societies are the real workers.Farmers,builders,mechanics;that sort of thing.Investment banking may be stressful but it produces nothing tangible except more capital for further investment.The oil markets right now are a good illustration of how speculation drives prices.Our lives are predicated on the guesswork of crystal ball gazers.We pay for goods in terms of perceived value,not real value.Currently,we perceive big homes and big cars to have great value;and basics like food to have little.
My question is: how did this BS start and how (if?) can we defang it?
I still hold that those who have profited the most with the least input of real value should be reined in.It seems the banking model in use is at the heart of the problem.
Thank you Mr.Bill for clarifying the effect of capping interest rates.




Well, I won't disagree that in general farming is a tough business, full of risks and that many farmers are under paid for their efforts. That is a quandry. Perhaps peak oil and scarcity will address these issues better than I can?

Undoubtedly it will,big time.My own interest in all the subjects on this board is seeing whether there is some way down the middle between current excess and future scarcity.

If you want to read a really boring article on tax specialists, go to this link. The flood of material weaknesses related to tax reflects a lack of expertise It talks about $150-200K salaries, bonuses and guaranteed contracts for tax specialists just because their is a dearth of talent and Sarbox has placed increasing burdens on tax and disclosure on public companies. It is pretty archane, but I make the point due to your remark about 'what do they produce' and infer that if I 'make' real things that somehow I have done real work, but if I have only worked with my 'brain' that I have not done anything.

LOL.Even the name of the article puts me to sleep.
I have friend who's a bond broker and brings 2 shirts to work everyday because,by noon,the first is soaked with sweat.He's certainly not lazy.Brain work is work but it is not productive other than in growing wealth. Wealth is a fantasy other than in terms of how much food,water,shelter it can provide.Everything over and above 'neccessities of life' is in terms of perception.Thus,existential 'need',skewed perception of our resources,imbalance,and all the other tragedies of complex societies.No doubt Beethoven enrichens our lives but we can't feed our children the Fifth.Besides which,more artists have survived and thrived in penury than not.that's the underlying reason most of us call them 'sick' and don't want our kids to grow up to be cowboys.

Who placed these burdens on these companies? The public. After each Enron, Worldcom or Tyco scandal the greater public good is served by heaping more and more rules on businesses. These rules and fines plus criminal charges if you ignore them stifle investment and innovation while making it necessary to hire scores of lawyers, accountants, finance specialists, bankers, auditors and other specialists instead of concentrating on 'making' something. Simplify the rules, set the companies free, get back to the basic concept of caveat emptor.

How much caveat emptor do we need?Why are we still caught up in the theory that life is no deeper than a dollar? It is not my innate nature to screw my neighbour over.I do it before he does it to me.We're all tired of this childishness.It's us made this place a minefield.I'm not being naive here: it's past time we took responsibility for what we're doing.Expecting an artifice like government to regulate the Darwinian hoax is,as you point out,only masking the problem.

Not to get personal, but who are you to tell me what is work and what is not work? The market place values my labor as a banker/treasurer/asset manager/trader more than it did when I worked as a carpenter. If I wasn't a banker, I may go back to construction again. It is no big deal for me. Building houses was in many ways far more enjoyable and rewarding. I certainly would not mind raising draught horses on the farm instead of working in an office 12-hours per day. And by the way, I neither have a large home, multiple family autos or any debt so wealth does not have to mean consumption. My hobbies are mostly ski touring, hiking, biking, swimming and the outdoors. My choice.

Wealth certainly does not mean overconsumption...we only have to think of Howard Hughes.
But it does mean taking more than your share.Ethically,you have to resort to the'if I don't,someone will' argument.The defense is approved by the social valuation of a banker over a carpenter.Inthat light,it is realistic.In the larger picture of resource depletion,global warming,and social chaos,it is pure wish fulfillment.
I don't beleive we can use the marketplace any longer to justify our choices in life. The marketplace is coming apart from natural cause.It needs to adjust its goals from growth to sustainability.The ethical investment funds are a step in the right direction.Hopefully,more follow.



I guess we might all define what is work and what is valuable according to our own preferences. Is the designer of a laptop less of a craftsman than a metal worker? Are metal workers that use machines less craftsmen than those who work only by hand? Are jewelers more artisans for their fine work than ferriers?

Preference and choice are of course the great luxuries provided by advanced societies. I'm assuming these are herrings you're throwing i.e. 'artisan' infers handwork.

So yes, in the future, if we revert to some sort of pre-19th century powered down existance then craftmanship may come back into fashion. Imagine a man working for a month's wages doing hard manual work to be able to afford a horse. And another month to be able to afford the saddle. And scraping together for years to buy a house if he is lucky.

I'm not a great luddite.Do we have to revert that far?No middle way?Think of a blacksmith.He has a forge but he prefers propane over coal:it provides better control and more production.He might have a fly press or a power hammer for the same reasons. But he can't afford,and doesn't see a need,for a punch press.He doesn't produce as much but there's more of him=technology + sustainability=equilibrium.

In our specialised economy we have bred interdependence, but we have also wrought efficiencies. These efficiencies have made many of life's previous luxuries affordable to the many. It may not be sustainable, but it has been a marvel to behold. Imagine average workers retiring with pensions and medical benefits at 55 or 60 instead of working until they drop dead and die.

It has been a great marvel,an age of miracles.But it hasn't been for the 'many',only for those on our side of the sun.

Knock it if you want. I will likely make the transition from banker to carpenter to farmer quite easily. At least I know what the otherside looks like because I have been there already. I wonder what everyone else will do? Merry Christmas.


I'm reaching for a gentle knock and trying not to blow the door down.
We've wandered far off the topic here,hopefully to end of finding transition points from current banking practise to a broader,more equitable outlook.
Any of my remarks are made with respect to your obvious expertise in current market economies.
Merry Christmas to you and your family.
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