[RacerJace]

Tonight I brought the discussion/debate about ‘whether to sell our house or stay’ to a crescendo. Selling up and getting debt free has been one of my firsts actions to prepare for the post peak (as is the advice of many folks whom acknowledge the consequences). My wife has been resistant to put it mildly.

I have not pushed for a decision up until now. My approach was to try and gently, rationally discuss the problem and probable consequences and consider my wife’s response as an indication of her level of understanding of the consequences of the decline ahead. My wife is very intelligent and analytical but not educated beyond high school. Yet she is a very very capable debater, able to tear an argument up and throw hard core critical thinking into it the likes I have rarely seen in some of the most highly educated and learned. When debating issues like our livelihood with her I feel like I can not help succumb to emotional responses. At work I am experienced at managing business worth millions of dollars with cool efficiency in handling very tough decisions. . When I consider a mere 250 grand regarding our home loan debt my own analysis has a sound and strong case but when I talk to my wife she makes me feel like my case is flimsy and weak. There is no discussion of good, better and best options or even support for my decision just the option of me making an ‘executive decision’ to sell or not to sell. AAARG! What’s going on? There are a couple of things that I can conclude:

1) My wife has not fully accepted/comprehended the consequences of peak oil. This I am fairly sure of. She (perhaps quite rightly) disputes the timing of economic decline. But she also assumes there will not be a decline in the housing market..! (based on historic evidence).

2) My wife has a huge emotional attachment to our house/our home. I on the other hand do not. I’ve moved many many times in my 36 years. My wife went from the one home she grew up in to a rental property with me and then to our present home.

Apart from using this forum as a way of venting my frustration I am curious of how others have managed to persuade loved ones to make radical changes in view of a post peak decline.

[Jake_old]

When I suggested selling up and moving my wife thought I was trying to make it easier for me to leave her! I'm good at giving off poor signals apparently.

You seem to be off on a better footing though and she might be right after all. I expect a fall in house prices followed by a small rise, then a fall etc.. and so on as recession reduces demand and cheaper energy encourages economic recovery and in turn house prices.

I'd concentrate on the idea that long term there will be a decline but I'd accept that it won't happen overnight, even if it does happen suddenly(which I doubt) there will be more scope for short term recovery.

Obviously, I have no idea about your particular circumstances though and I have always avoided seeing house buying as an investment and rather just a place to live.

We both have an emotional attachment to our house, so we will be sad if/when we do.

Good Luck.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '
')1) My wife has not fully accepted/comprehended the consequences of peak oil. This I am fairly sure of. She (perhaps quite rightly) disputes the timing of economic decline. But she also assumes there will not be a decline in the housing market..! (based on historic evidence).

2) My wife has a huge emotional attachment to our house/our home. I on the other hand do not. I’ve moved many many times in my 36 years. My wife went from the one home she grew up in to a rental property with me and then to our present home.

[Wrencher]

You might also see what kind of a resource your house is or could become. Unless you live in a McMansion and are way upsidedown as to payments and coming energy needs I would think that even homes in suburbia will be better than having no home at all.

But then I live in a little town, know all my neighbors and expect to be inconvienienced, but not to have raging hordes of looters down here either. It is a poor little town, and so there isn't a lot to loot, and just about every house is protected by Smith and Wesson.

Do you have a yard that can be plowed and planted? We have been saying for a long time that we have put housing developments down on the best farmland. Perhaps some good can come from that. If you live where you can garden your whole yard (and with a solar greenhouse, you might have a surprising amount of home grown food for most of the year), you should have also a place to store tools and perhaps to have some type of shop.

A house is a great tool. Probably the greatest tool that any of us will ever own. Sadly many have been made more for show than for utility - but it isn't too late yet. Insulation, solar collectors, gardens, food storage pantrys (we have two insulated cool rooms in our basement) all can provide a lot of security for you and your family. If things get crazy in the world, at least you don't have do go out. You can remain in your home, significantly anyonomus, maybe even invisible.

I don't know what your situation is. My Dad aske me once what I though wealth was. It was in the inflationary times of the 70's and I was really freaked out by where everything was going. I told him that we were buying gold, and silver in small quantities to have something of value if our currency continued to degrade. He told me stories of the Great Depression, and living with his grandparents (His mom the oldest of 15 kids. No, I am not making this up) . His Dad, my Granddad died when he was very young, and he ended up living with the extended family. They lived in some very humble shacks, and worked in the sugar beet fields for cash. Greatgrandpa had a crew and he would contract to plant, weed, irrigate and harvest 80-120 acres of sugar beets each year. They had a garden of at least an acre, and always bought 100 baby chickens. They kept a cow and had milk, cheese, cream and butter. Greatgrandma and her daughters baked bread, cakes, pies - about anything you can imagine. And they hardly had any money at all.

But to me, that is wealth. I will never have enough money that I will feel comfortable 'investing' in either the stock market, or comodities. But we have a house, my wife makes quilts and sews. I garden (and build boats, but for fun not profit) and plan to start a lot of solar powered projects over the next couple of years. Hopefully we will have some security. Hopefully our kids can find some security in their lives.

Enough rambling. Main point being that I don't know if a house is such a liability, and can be made into a useful, life sustaining asset.

[RacerJace]

Thanks for the replies so far.. They are very encouraging, and they are beginning to make me consider staying.

My main concern is planning for a worst case scenario. That is, assuming a severe economic down turn in the next 12 - 18 months, I would loose the capital value of my property as real estate prices fall. If property devalues by up to 30% and I become unemployed then we would end up defaulting and we walk away with nothing. In the best case scenario the market would stay relatively flat for an extended time. My best option then is to lock in to a fixed interest and hopefully let inflation devalue my debt. This assumes I manage to stay employed and continue to make the payments.

Our house is in the hills north east of Melbourne Australia. It is in the bush on the outer edge of suburbia and backs onto rural properties. We have walking access to trains, markets and community centres, so as far as location goes it's pretty good. The block itself is ~750 square metres with the house taking up about half of that. There's enough room for some reasonable gardens and greenhouses. Problem is I have no workshop or garage to speak of.

My idea behind selling up was to invest in hedging funds to preserve our wealth and rent whilst the property market drops. If things get bad due to unemployment (increased crime, eviction from house etc) then we are able to move quickly without the burden of trying to sell when it's a bad time. If needed we could move in with either of our parents for a while. After some years I expect things will get pretty rough around here for most people. The real estate market will be flooded with cheap houses in a few years. If we invest well in hedging funds we may be able to buy a property outright and be secure for the long term. Even if the property market continues to grow slowly we can still buy back into it after making some money on the stock market.

My wife fundamentally disagrees with the worst case scenario and delivers the idea of it a scathing back hander with the comment that she would not want to live in such harsh times anyway, alluding to taking her own life. At this point the discussion usually stalls as I become shaken by the idea that my wife/family considers such an ultimatum.

[Guest]

YIKES!! Yikes!! That is a really hard situation.

When we went through the oil shocks in the 70's and early 80's we lived on a farm, and I worked at a powerplant to keep the farm going. I guess that I have lost a lot of confidence in predicting what will happen in the future. My power company built a 500 million dollar coal fired plant (400 MW) on the belief that they would sell all their power to the oil shale development that would pop up...... and then it didn't. It went away one day and they were on the hook. I don't think Peak oil is going away, but I don't have enough information or experience to make a move like you are contemplating. I bought gold at $500 in 1981 or so, and it is just now back in that neighborhood. Same with silver at $15 or so. But then I also bought calves that died and sheep that were killed by dogs. The only thing that has worked for me has been gardens, bottled fruit and food storage. In 1984 they closed my little power plant, the farm partenership failed, and we had to move to a different town and plant. We were there for about six weeks and we went on strike. We ate a lot of pancakes, whole wheat bread, and garden vegetacbles and never missed a meal. We were fairly worried, but the kids didn't know that there was anything wrong.

I wish you the best of luck in this decision and hope things work well for you and your wife. Scary and hard decisions.

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y wife fundamentally disagrees with the worst case scenario and delivers the idea of it a scathing back hander with the comment that she would not want to live in such harsh times anyway, alluding to taking her own life.

[crapattack]

RacerJace I can see you have a really tough problem there and it sounds to me like your wife is in denial that the worst case could really happen and being in her comfortable home is a way for her to retreat from that nasty thought. Take the home away and she's got bupkis, just the nasty thought and an unknown future.

Is there anyway you and another couple could buy with cash a vacation property that would be a suitable bug-out option? It was easier for us to think of facing a PO crash with other people around than trying to just go it alone. That way if there is a fast-crash you can grab some gear and go and meanwhile you've been stocking it up with supplies and preparing the garden. Having a supportive other couple definately helped us deal with the reality and stop trying to deny it could happen. We are looking to put together a group of interested friends that will all specialize in 'PO' skills when the time comes.

I don't think things were as bad in the no-electric/gas past as people make out. Our ancestors survived, and wrenchers tales of the great depression reminded me of that too ~ it was a simpler life, hard work, but we work hard now too. I think with barter systems going the old ways will come back and we will adjust. Sometimes thinking of what you can do helps settle the mind and if your wife enjoys cooking there will be plenty of need for bakers, and cheese makers, or maybe she can sew and knit, or chop logs, make pots, look after animals, teach, doctor, council. People with real skills will be highly valued.

I think your house is an albatross. If it doesn't have wood heat, a wood lot, you can't grow enough to feed your family on it, get rid of it and get liquid and into real gold/silver in case the currency tanks. If you can afford to, get a few acres with some friends you trust or on your own. Your wife will not want to it seems, and you shouldn't force her, but gently and gradually keep working on her. Don't give up. Just because people don't want to face the worst, sometimes it creeps up behind them. As gas goes higher it is inevitable the housing market will crash as sure as shit rolls downhill and your house will loose it's equity - quick. The markets are superheated right now and it could be this year, next or the year after, but it's coming and if it were me out-in-there-in-the-burbs I'd get out fast and don't wait for anyone but yourself to save your ass. I figure it's better to be wrong laughing about it later with your friends than the alternative. The sooner you do it the more time you've got to get your new situation worked out.

[quiltea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'M')y main concern is planning for a worst case scenario. That is, assuming a severe economic down turn in the next 12 - 18 months, I would loose the capital value of my property as real estate prices fall. If property devalues by up to 30% and I become unemployed then we would end up defaulting and we walk away with nothing.

[RacerJace]

Things aren't too bad at the moment with the wife and I. After a couple more attempts I made to discuss the subject of selling our house she finally cracked it and asked me what I want her to say. "If you feel so strongly about it it's obvious I'm not going to change your mind" she exlaimed and added "so what do want me to do? ... If the decision is to sell then ok, we sell !". My reply was "all I want is for you to be happy and I need you to help me figure that out sometimes. What I need is your support". And she said "ok you've got it !". Since then we've been much more amicable and able to move on.

However now the plan to sell the house is set in motion, in the last week I've been getting calls from my parents (divorced sinced 1977) expressing concern over my decsion to sell. I've gone through lengthy discussions with each of them explaining the likely forcast of events based on current facts and they have eventually conceided. My father said "well usually economics in the world sort them selves out over time" and concluded with "what you do with your finances is your business." My reply was "well yes economics do measure the forces of supply and demand, fear and greed, which ever is your interpretation, and I am convinced there is strong evidence that we are heading for a major downwards trend that will last for decades. And even if I'm wrong I've got a win win situation so long as I invest the capital conservatively across a range of options in the energy/resources sector." My mother acutally started to consider selling up her place too. She own's 50% of the house she resides since she broke up from an as yet unresoved relationship some 10 years ago.

I guess it all works out if you have the compassion, will power and the confidence to stand up for what you really believe in. Utimaltey the loved ones will give their support.

.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '
')I guess it all works out if you have the compassion, will power and the confidence to stand up for what you really believe in. Utimaltey the loved ones will give their support.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '
')
I guess it all works out if you have the compassion, will power and the confidence to stand up for what you really believe in. Utimaltey the loved ones will give their support.

[NordicThora]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '.')..it is not just the acceptance of the consequences of Peak Oil but the participation in changing the lifestyle of debt based buying and all that goes with consumerist ways of life that constitutes real support. Otherwise there will always be opposition, be it passive or aggressive.

[crapattack]

RacerJace, glad to hear things are going better for you and your wife. It sounds like she is really making an effort to support you in this even though she doesn't necessarily agree. That takes a lot of guts to do (especially if it means leaving your cozy home) for someone and I hope you are acknowledging that for her. A nice gold necklace maybe?

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'R')acerJace, glad to hear things are going better for you and your wife. It sounds like she is really making an effort to support you in this even though she doesn't necessarily agree. That takes a lot of guts to do (especially if it means leaving your cozy home) for someone and I hope you are acknowledging that for her. A nice gold necklace maybe?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '
')Excellent idea... although she likes white gold better than yellow.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', '
')Excellent idea... although she likes white gold better than yellow.

[crapattack]

Glad to help RacerJace Nice way to store the cash reserves too.

[NordicThora]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tinosorb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NordicThora', ' ')But those who DO try to leave all this behind and live in a way that minimizes use of fossil fuels and debt based fiat currency will quickly face serious (and possibly insurmountable) opposition - social, legal, economic, cultural. If you don't believe me, just try it!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')etting all loved ones to make this sort of change is extremely difficult and unlikely for most.