by Tanada » Sun 27 Dec 2009, 11:39:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '1')970 was pretty early in the game, good find. This is what the Limits to Growth team called "unlimited resources."
My own WAG is that shortages will appear, grandiose schemes for unconventional supply will be proposed, and people who can't wait 5 years for non-rationed gasoline will clear the shelves/storerooms of any and all Ebikes, scooters, PHEVs, anything, so long as they have the means to purchase and the supply is there. Even a transient phenomenon like last year's price spike showed huge gains in this sector, along with MT maxing out. People aren't going to wait 5 years for a fillup. The economic fallout of this is hard to predict, to say the least. Nothing in the past presents a similar long term model to go by.
IMO what it comes down too is motivation by the Government. If they decide to build plants to do these processes with a 24/7 construction schedule and no legal or environmental challenges allowed they can build a heck of a lot of stuff in way under 5 years.
So far nobody is scared of Peak Oil and nobody is pushing stuff through as fast as it can be done. If that changes then the paradigm will shift inside of 2 years. Modular construction like they use for large ships, standardized components like the French did for their nuclear power grid system coupled with price is no barrier and 24/7 construction COULD get us off imported fuels in 3 years. We lack the political will to do so.
It would also drop world petroleum demand by 18% and cause the price to crash until depletion catches up with demand, at which point finger pointing and the blame game would ensue in a free for all.
The INTELLIGENT thing to do would be to start building these systems now and build them serial fashion, just fast enough to offset say 500,000 bbl/d of USA petroleum consumption. They would come online right about the time Mexico stops exporting petroleum. Then you build more as Alaska continues to decline to offset that. And so on and so forth. Once we hit PO you can do this to maintain the price of oil without fear that someone like Saudi Arabia will crash the price and bankrupt you when you are going online with your system.
I sure hope we have someone INTELLIGENT in charge when the world supply fails to meet world demand permanently.