I just read a large portion of Savinar's book. I have always heard people say that we are running out of oil, but just like most people, I didn't really give much thought to it. After educating myself on this matter, I can say only that I am incredibly scared about our future. We really have no viable options to save ourselves. It's too late. We're f*cked.
I guess all I am saying is... I want somebody to say something, ANYTHING that will make me feel better about this situation. Because I really can not think of ANYTHING positive right now.
Ignorance truly is bliss. I wish I could just stay happily oblivious to this matter.
PeakOil is You
HELP
by backstop » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:08:14
SDub86 - First, don't kid yourself that ignorance is bliss; its a perverse form of slavery.
You've been born into a society that has steadily been engineered over the last eighty years to the point where your main economic role is to burn, and sponsor the consumption of, as much oil as possible.
On the other hand, don't be fooled by the defeatist bollocks that we're terminally fucked. Yes, our population is unsustainably large, and is going to decline to a fraction of its present size over an unknown number of generations. (See thread on Leibig's Law)
The decline of oil supply is really only a trigger for change: the depletion of soils, of potable water and of climatic stability are all pressures diminishing the earth's viable scale of human population.
What we can do, and what we owe to our descendants, is to minimize our footprint on the planet as rapidly as possible to get as near as we can to what is herein called a 'soft-landing' for our global society. Make no mistake, that doesn't imply any techno-escape-hatch; exponential economic growth as the basis of an Expansionist economy cannot continue with declining oil supplies. Rather a soft-landing is about addressing problems of resource depletion pro-actively, knowing that the earlier they are addressed, the more easily they'll be resolved.
Various means to this end are discussed across the site. Two I'd mention here are the options for the potentially sustainable production of Ethanol and Methanol from agriculture and silviculture respectively. These are liquid transport fuels than can both supply otto-cycle engines, while methanol already has fuel cells designed to use it.
Between them, the worldwide potentials for their production is such that present agricultural fuel usage could readily be maintained, if that is seen as the most sustainable road to take.
There, somebody's said something. Hope it made some sense to you.
regards,
Backstop
You've been born into a society that has steadily been engineered over the last eighty years to the point where your main economic role is to burn, and sponsor the consumption of, as much oil as possible.
On the other hand, don't be fooled by the defeatist bollocks that we're terminally fucked. Yes, our population is unsustainably large, and is going to decline to a fraction of its present size over an unknown number of generations. (See thread on Leibig's Law)
The decline of oil supply is really only a trigger for change: the depletion of soils, of potable water and of climatic stability are all pressures diminishing the earth's viable scale of human population.
What we can do, and what we owe to our descendants, is to minimize our footprint on the planet as rapidly as possible to get as near as we can to what is herein called a 'soft-landing' for our global society. Make no mistake, that doesn't imply any techno-escape-hatch; exponential economic growth as the basis of an Expansionist economy cannot continue with declining oil supplies. Rather a soft-landing is about addressing problems of resource depletion pro-actively, knowing that the earlier they are addressed, the more easily they'll be resolved.
Various means to this end are discussed across the site. Two I'd mention here are the options for the potentially sustainable production of Ethanol and Methanol from agriculture and silviculture respectively. These are liquid transport fuels than can both supply otto-cycle engines, while methanol already has fuel cells designed to use it.
Between them, the worldwide potentials for their production is such that present agricultural fuel usage could readily be maintained, if that is seen as the most sustainable road to take.
There, somebody's said something. Hope it made some sense to you.
regards,
Backstop
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by Carlhole » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:12:45
Apparently, many people, once they digest and understand the ramifications of peak oil, feel sort of shocked for a while. I went through exactly the same thing back in January and I have seen at least three others go through a period of oil depletion awareness shock since then. One individual told me they were having bad dreams and were generally worried and ill-at-ease after I showed them "End of Suburbia" on my laptop.
As I went through my own shock-phase, I began emailing people, particularly those in the documentary filmmaking business to try to drum up support for a film on the subject. I was emailing magazines and news programs all over with earnest pleas to expose this dire issue. Of course, later "End of Suburbia' came out and peak oil got all sorts of press this year. Now I'm more bemused than worried, even though I know that I am ill-equipped to survive some of the desperate scenarios some have painted.
Personally, I think the world is in for a watershed economic shift fraught with all sorts of perils. Having gone through some shock over the issue myself. I can imagine how awful it would be if suddenly all of America and the rest of the world were simultaneously shocked by peak oil. There could be real social problems. Resource wars could really be a scourge, even before the effects of energy scarcity hit.
Now is the time for really splendid leadership and a common commitment to see this problem through as a global people. And, I should say, first things first. We desperately need more reliable petroleum reserves information so that we can begin approaching this problem systematically. Its quite possible that we'll have to use the remaining supplies of petroleum to powerdown as outlined in Richard Heinberg's book of that name. (Maybe you should buy that book).
No one knows just how much oil is left. No one knows just how much we can conserve if we have to. No one knows to what extent the entire human race could cooperate if push comes to shove. I suspect we could.
As I went through my own shock-phase, I began emailing people, particularly those in the documentary filmmaking business to try to drum up support for a film on the subject. I was emailing magazines and news programs all over with earnest pleas to expose this dire issue. Of course, later "End of Suburbia' came out and peak oil got all sorts of press this year. Now I'm more bemused than worried, even though I know that I am ill-equipped to survive some of the desperate scenarios some have painted.
Personally, I think the world is in for a watershed economic shift fraught with all sorts of perils. Having gone through some shock over the issue myself. I can imagine how awful it would be if suddenly all of America and the rest of the world were simultaneously shocked by peak oil. There could be real social problems. Resource wars could really be a scourge, even before the effects of energy scarcity hit.
Now is the time for really splendid leadership and a common commitment to see this problem through as a global people. And, I should say, first things first. We desperately need more reliable petroleum reserves information so that we can begin approaching this problem systematically. Its quite possible that we'll have to use the remaining supplies of petroleum to powerdown as outlined in Richard Heinberg's book of that name. (Maybe you should buy that book).
No one knows just how much oil is left. No one knows just how much we can conserve if we have to. No one knows to what extent the entire human race could cooperate if push comes to shove. I suspect we could.
- Carlhole
by MonteQuest » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:19:01
I have devoted a great deal of time to the issue of peak-oil becasue I feel we can do a lot to ease the transition. We face a huge challenge ahead of us, but one that does have answers, albeit they are contrary to popular and historical beilef. If we can downscale and and downsize eveything we do and look to nature for guidance, we can achieve a harmony with the planet that will exceed the material wealth that never made us happy in the first place. Look to others who will stand beside you and meet the challenge head on. Community of man is going to have a huge resurgence, IMO. There will be chaos, make no mistake about that, but wisdom has not yet peaked, we just need to learn to apply it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Hegel » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:21:59
Firstly, "DON'T PANIC!" 
Secondly, calm down and grab a beer.
Thirdly, just wait until finally the "mighty" leaders of the U.S of A find out that the American way of life indeed is "negotiable" after November election. Then wasteful mismanagement of fossil fuels consumption will begin to ease and eventually give mankind a pause to define necessary steps towards a more sustainable way of life for all human beings on this planet we call earth. I can't imagine a bunch of W.A.S.P people hurling nuclear devices all over the place, merely for the sake of a dying unsustainable, in the future less profitable, economy.
Secondly, calm down and grab a beer.
Thirdly, just wait until finally the "mighty" leaders of the U.S of A find out that the American way of life indeed is "negotiable" after November election. Then wasteful mismanagement of fossil fuels consumption will begin to ease and eventually give mankind a pause to define necessary steps towards a more sustainable way of life for all human beings on this planet we call earth. I can't imagine a bunch of W.A.S.P people hurling nuclear devices all over the place, merely for the sake of a dying unsustainable, in the future less profitable, economy.
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
Current Doomerosity Level (Jaymax Scale): 5
Current Doomerosity Level (Jaymax Scale): 5
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by OilsNotWell » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:22:30
I wish I could tell you there will be no problems, but I can't. But bear in mind, Matt's book is a vision of the possible, not necessarily the probable.
However, the truth is oil will peak. When is subject to debate. Use your own judgments and read the work of as many others as you can. Remember too, peak oil is not peak energy, that will be a while. Tough times are likely ahead. Plan for them, imagine yourself 200 years ago, etc. But don't quit the job, load up on ammunition, bar the door yet, ok?
Your reaction is normal. Like stages of grief, you will go through a few things, which can vary from person to person:
1) Ignorance or Denial
2) Background Awareness (the "I guess I always knew about it, but never 'thought' about it")
3) Epiphany (this is the stage where everything you've realized you've known "deep-down" hits home, and this is truth - inescapable and brutal. In your lifetime, your children's lifetime type.
4) Shock!
5) Panic and Fear - You search for reassurances ("this can't be true!")..there are no good ones.. The denial urge can be very powerful and you want to draw back into its' relative security.
6) Intensive Search, mentally or otherwise, for survival modes to fit you best
6) Search for Deeper Explanation or Refutation. (some go back to stage 1, some move on)
7) Numbness. (leading, possibly, to "Learned Helplessness" or apathy: "giving up", "what's the use anyway")
Urge to connect and share with others, drawing closer to family, or talking about it with others
9) Idea to generate ameliorative remedies (soft landing v. feared hard crash) [Heinberg's "Powerdown" approach, but knowing what you know about human nature, you fear this just isn't likely, resource wars are probable response]
10) Acceptance of fate (planning for the worst, but hoping for the best)
You are not alone in your process. The world will NOT end tomorrow, the sun will rise again, I assure you. But take a deep breath, look around you: you are aware, and are alive. Life can be short and tenuous - many around the world (and our ancestors) know and have known this all along. Take pleasure in small things, of being alive. Find what makes you happy. If you are spiritual, search for a deeper meaning. If you are not, find serenity wherever you can...whether it's by a clear blue mountain stream or just dreaming of one..
The process can vary in time from a few days to several weeks to several months. Probably around a 1-2 weeks I would guess on average.
Be happy, though, you've taken the red pill. Your mind is now freer than it was before, and your eyes see better...
For me, it was like a birthday.
However, the truth is oil will peak. When is subject to debate. Use your own judgments and read the work of as many others as you can. Remember too, peak oil is not peak energy, that will be a while. Tough times are likely ahead. Plan for them, imagine yourself 200 years ago, etc. But don't quit the job, load up on ammunition, bar the door yet, ok?
Your reaction is normal. Like stages of grief, you will go through a few things, which can vary from person to person:
1) Ignorance or Denial
2) Background Awareness (the "I guess I always knew about it, but never 'thought' about it")
3) Epiphany (this is the stage where everything you've realized you've known "deep-down" hits home, and this is truth - inescapable and brutal. In your lifetime, your children's lifetime type.
4) Shock!
5) Panic and Fear - You search for reassurances ("this can't be true!")..there are no good ones.. The denial urge can be very powerful and you want to draw back into its' relative security.
6) Intensive Search, mentally or otherwise, for survival modes to fit you best
6) Search for Deeper Explanation or Refutation. (some go back to stage 1, some move on)
7) Numbness. (leading, possibly, to "Learned Helplessness" or apathy: "giving up", "what's the use anyway")
Urge to connect and share with others, drawing closer to family, or talking about it with others
9) Idea to generate ameliorative remedies (soft landing v. feared hard crash) [Heinberg's "Powerdown" approach, but knowing what you know about human nature, you fear this just isn't likely, resource wars are probable response]
10) Acceptance of fate (planning for the worst, but hoping for the best)
You are not alone in your process. The world will NOT end tomorrow, the sun will rise again, I assure you. But take a deep breath, look around you: you are aware, and are alive. Life can be short and tenuous - many around the world (and our ancestors) know and have known this all along. Take pleasure in small things, of being alive. Find what makes you happy. If you are spiritual, search for a deeper meaning. If you are not, find serenity wherever you can...whether it's by a clear blue mountain stream or just dreaming of one..
The process can vary in time from a few days to several weeks to several months. Probably around a 1-2 weeks I would guess on average.
Be happy, though, you've taken the red pill. Your mind is now freer than it was before, and your eyes see better...
For me, it was like a birthday.
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by lowem » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 22:24:32
In the long run, everything dies. We are all star stuff. We came from the stars, and we will return there eventually. And then, something new will arise from the dust in between the stars. We all are one.
This is not to say "no worry", though. Do what you can, to educate others, and for youself, to prepare for the worst.
This is not to say "no worry", though. Do what you can, to educate others, and for youself, to prepare for the worst.
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by backstop » Tue 05 Oct 2004, 23:24:03
Iowem - I'd differ with you over encouraging people 'to prepare for the worst'.
In this context its not just a turn of phrase, its the basis of strategy to meet conditions where we simply cannot afford to lose any opportunity to raise up the common good and maximize the degree of co-operation possible.
If I stock up on weaponry, 5 years dried food and a concrete bunker, then I'm not buying the house cows, the woodlot and the share in a village tractor; I am in a sense already defeated.
I believe we need to prepare to make the best of the profoundly adverse circumstances we face if we're to have a serious chance of a soft landing.
regards,
Backstop
In this context its not just a turn of phrase, its the basis of strategy to meet conditions where we simply cannot afford to lose any opportunity to raise up the common good and maximize the degree of co-operation possible.
If I stock up on weaponry, 5 years dried food and a concrete bunker, then I'm not buying the house cows, the woodlot and the share in a village tractor; I am in a sense already defeated.
I believe we need to prepare to make the best of the profoundly adverse circumstances we face if we're to have a serious chance of a soft landing.
regards,
Backstop
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by MattSavinar » Wed 06 Oct 2004, 01:09:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hegel', 'F')irstly, "DON'T PANIC!"
Secondly, calm down and grab a beer.
Thirdly, just wait until finally the "mighty" leaders of the U.S of A find out that the American way of life indeed is "negotiable" after November election. Then wasteful mismanagement of fossil fuels consumption will begin to ease and eventually give mankind a pause to define necessary steps towards a more sustainable way of life for all human beings on this planet we call earth. I can't imagine a bunch of W.A.S.P people hurling nuclear devices all over the place, merely for the sake of a dying unsustainable, in the future less profitable, economy.
Secondly, calm down and grab a beer.
Thirdly, just wait until finally the "mighty" leaders of the U.S of A find out that the American way of life indeed is "negotiable" after November election. Then wasteful mismanagement of fossil fuels consumption will begin to ease and eventually give mankind a pause to define necessary steps towards a more sustainable way of life for all human beings on this planet we call earth. I can't imagine a bunch of W.A.S.P people hurling nuclear devices all over the place, merely for the sake of a dying unsustainable, in the future less profitable, economy.
See Question near the end of the book, "Are we really crazy enough to fight an all out nuclear war for oil?"
Matt
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by lowem » Wed 06 Oct 2004, 01:49:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'l')owem - I'd differ with you over encouraging people 'to prepare for the worst'.
LOWEM - with an "L", thank you
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'I')n this context its not just a turn of phrase, its the basis of strategy to meet conditions where we simply cannot afford to lose any opportunity to raise up the common good and maximize the degree of co-operation possible.
I hope, like you, for a "soft landing", but there is no guarantee at all of any such thing. At least in your country you can buy your own weaponry. "My" weapons are stored in an army arms depot.
Preparation doesn't have to be the "bug-out" mentality type you descibe, though we have got enough discussion on that kind of preparation already (re: all the "guns" threads, lol). Perhaps I meant, being prepared as a region, as a society, as a culture?
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by Aaron » Wed 06 Oct 2004, 06:25:31
Welcome back Matt
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson
Hazel Henderson
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by smiley » Wed 06 Oct 2004, 07:37:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')guess all I am saying is... I want somebody to say something, ANYTHING that will make me feel better about this situation. Because I really can not think of ANYTHING positive right now.
There are two things that I can think of.
One peakoil is a slow and predictable process. It is not like a meteor hitting the earth.
Two. I'm afraid that the current alternatives will do little to stem the decline. But we should never loose sight of the fact that a lot of our oil consumption is unnecessary. We spoil great amounts of energy. Conservation is our best option at the moment.
So we do have time and we do have tools. It is going to be an epic task but we can outrun the decline for at least the first two decades by conservation.
However in the end we will loose that battle. The oil production goes to zero and our consumption obviously cannot. Therefore we have to find a sustainable solution before that point. Because if we haven't by then, the scenarios of the doomsayers could come into play.
I don't think we have that solution right now. But as long as there is time there is hope.
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