[thuja]

I often read the posts here as something akin to- why don't the powers that be (media, politicians, sheeple) get it about peak oil. The sooner they get it, the sooner we can start implementing plans to save us from the drastic problems that will ensue post-peak.

Whether your a cornucopian hoping for a nuclear powered future or a Heinbergian eco-utopian hoping for back yard veggie gardens and wind power, there is a general desire to educate the masses about this issue.

While I generally agree, I have been having second thoughts while mulling over the implications of a true global understanding of Peak Oil. My fear is that we would see a great deal of panic and an immediate cry for intense energy production. This would most likely come in the form of expanded oil, coal and nuclear with a pinch of solar/wind development.

Intense energy production would lead to much more intense problems down the road (coal/oil=global warming; nuclear=waste/sustainability issues). There will soon be a hydrocarbon peak and eventually a uranium peak that will only put off our need to power down and reduce our population load on the planet.

So the more we educate, the quicker we bring on the fantasy that we can change fuel sources and go along our merry way. The longer we wait to try for the "energy Manhattan Project", the harder and more impossible it becomes to try and pull it off. We will then be forced with powerdown instead of trying to put off the inevitable for a couple more decades.

So should we stop praying for CNN and Newsweek to cover Peak Oil?

[dub_scratch]

Interesting, thuja. You are describing a scenario where industrial society, when confronted with the awareness of its own mortality due to finite resources, goes on a mad scramble panic push to burn everything and anything as fast and as wasteful as possible-- too squeeze out every last bit of destructive growth possible. It’s a rush to exhaustion, to total burnout. Its as if there is no tomorrow. It’s as if society must ensure that there cannot be a tomorrow.

Sounds pretty pathological. Sounds like business-as-usual.

[thuja]

Right- so don't give them any extra ammo- pretend you're happy with Business as Usual. Then they have less time for the Mad-Scramble-To-Stave-Off-The-Inevitable or MSTSOTI. So if you want to lessen the amount of time the have to enact the MSTSOTI, stop praying for CNN and any politician to jump on the Peak Oil bandwagon.

[marko]

I am with you, Thuja. There is going to be a mad scramble as the awareness dawns on people and probably a lot of environmental destruction, coal burning, etc., no matter what. But the less that capital is redirected into new energy regimes in advance of the crisis, the more likely the crisis is to diminish capital.

It is grim to wish that human misery might come more quickly but maybe the best hope for the long-term survival of our own species and of others as well.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I') am with you, Thuja. There is going to be a mad scramble as the awareness dawns on people and probably a lot of environmental destruction, coal burning, etc., no matter what. But the less that capital is redirected into new energy regimes in advance of the crisis, the more likely the crisis is to diminish capital.

It is grim to wish that human misery might come more quickly but maybe the best hope for the long-term survival of our own species and of others as well.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')
I will know if it is time to head for the hills by the reactions of the public as PO is muttered by Katie Curic on the Today Show.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I') have been having second thoughts while mulling over the implications of a true global understanding of Peak Oil. My fear is that we would see a great deal of panic and an immediate cry for intense energy production.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')y fear is that we would see a great deal of panic and an immediate cry for intense energy production. This would most likely come in the form of expanded oil, coal and nuclear with a pinch of solar/wind development.

[untothislast]

Worryingly, the news outlets through which people will get their initial reports of peak oil - and the options available to deal with it - are under the control of individuals and corporations with their own agendas, so in most instances the 'news' will be tailored to fit the message they want to put out. To a large extent, this will be shaped by whether they are supportive of the government of the day, or whether they see it as a means of bringing about political change. Secondly, corporations usually have diverse financial interests, and will avoid creating any sense of discontinuity in the markets if they feel it might affect their immediate business interests. This is perhaps one of the reasons why we feel most comfortable getting our primary information from the internet.

However society shapes up over the years and decades to come, the higher echelons of the hierarchy are well aware that they need to maintain a skills base, of some description, to service the needs of those who are left, after the reduction in available energy and resources has led to some form of natural attrition. During the recent avian flu scare, the UK declared that stocks of available vaccine would be distributed only to selected personnel, seen as making a major contribution to the livelihood of the state. This being the case, I'm sure that there won't be any rush to inform the general public about any true state of affairs concerning peak oil, as the state will already be planning for a scenario involving a much reduced (and selective) population. In other words, the drones go to the wall, and the 'useful' minority live to fight another day.

In that respect (unless you happen to be a nuclear scientist or a heart surgeon) we've all got a stake in making sure as many people as possible know what the score is - or likely to be. For the time being, there's safety in numbers.

[TorrKing]

To the long term survival of the human specie and the environment which feeds us it is better that most people doesn't have a clue. The less time they have to prepare and learn how to feed on the local environment the more likely it is that the game species and other resources survive the initial crisis.

It will also give people less time to disperse into every available corner of wilderness. Game populations can then quickly recover from these areas later. And so can forests.

This is of course an extremely cynical way of thinking, but nature works that way and we have forgot that we are a part of it.

The other option is of course that we continue to extend nature even more until our world becomes totally uninhabitable. That is what happens with awareness.

Torjus Gaaren

[untothislast]

This debate opens up vistas to so many conflicting viewpoints - even within one individual. Like everyone else, I want my family and loved ones to come through any crisis relatively unscathed, yet, deep down, recognise that we are the only species that could vacate the planet tomorrow - not only without any prejudicial effect on any other living creatures, but with definite long-term benefits for the entire eco-system.
And indeed, part of the reason we're in our current mess, is that somewhere along the way we forgot that we're a part of the big picture, and not the authors/owners of it.

Why I'm pitching for greater openness in the peak-oil debate (apart from the reasons stated in an earlier reply), is because those intrinsically selfish
or naturally aggressive already have a headstart when it comes to surviving calamity - usually because they're well versed in serving their own interests, and will in all likelihood stop at nothing to ensure their own survival. However, these are not the ideal character traits to be carrying forward through into the future - either as a template for humanity or for our future regard for the environment. Personally, I'd like to see the altruistic minority, on whom our hopes are ultimately based, given a chance to survive as well. The only way you can ensure that, is by making sure that everyone has access to unbiased information.

[thuja]

Yes I have to agree that I'm all for disseminating information about peak oil, as long as it is not filtered by politicians/media who have their own spin/interests. I am all for creating Heinbergian "Lifeboats" that can hopefully ride out the storm. But I am fearful that increased awareness and publicity will lead to true understanding and fear by the mass electorate. This in turn would lead to poor short term policy making by the powers that be, thus leading to a very crappy, ineffectual and possibly species killing response to a grave danger.

Tony, I agree that the media is one of the quickest ways to raise awareness but perhaps one of the worst disseminators. So, all power to ground-up internet sites and word of mouth. Just say no to the tube...

[clueless]

Hi Thuja,

I think I agree with you..But for different reasons. Heinberg and Savinar see, to think the back yard garden will save them. I have some friends who believe the same but not for PO reasoning. But the reality is if it get's to the point of having to rely on a back yard garden the party is over. Savinar even mentions such in his book citing the "bandit cultures" that ensue after collapse. I don't think this genie is going back in the bottle, but I also think there needs to be some type of emphasis placed on conservation...How to do that I don't know...

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', 'I') am with you, Thuja. There is going to be a mad scramble as the awareness dawns on people and probably a lot of environmental destruction, coal burning, etc., no matter what. But the less that capital is redirected into new energy regimes in advance of the crisis, the more likely the crisis is to diminish capital.

It is grim to wish that human misery might come more quickly but maybe the best hope for the long-term survival of our own species and of others as well.

[untothislast]

Which is why having an informed population is your best, in fact only, safeguard. The only reason why Bush/Blair were able to perpetrate their subjugation of Iraq, was because the general public knew nothing of the background issues, or the debates going on about the so-called evidence for WMD. With the advantage of a malleable press, it was therefore easy to run the line that Saddam constituted a threat. As it was, he couldn't even mount an defense of his own nation, let alone launch an attack against anyone else's.

[Liamj]

Disagree, Thuja. If you're afraid someones house is on fire, do you not tell them in case they panic?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile I generally agree, I have been having second thoughts while mulling over the implications of a true global understanding of Peak Oil. My fear is that we would see a great deal of panic and an immediate cry for intense energy production.

[Doly]

Also, to all those that believe that people never learn, wait for a moment and think what was common thinking on the 50s and what is common thinking now. (The average Joe believed that women should stay at home, blacks and other races should be discriminated again, etc., etc.)

[Kimber]

Monte said somewhere that by the time everyone knows about something it's to late to do anything about it.

Before I ever heard about PO I knew something was wrong with the way society was going. If people wanted to know they would know. There has been quite a lot of info on the news. I saw a Congressman use charts that looked like they came from this web site. The info is out there now. It's reminds me of the Matrix, no one wants to take the pill.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'M')y fear is that we would see a great deal of panic and an immediate cry for intense energy production. This would most likely come in the form of expanded oil, coal and nuclear with a pinch of solar/wind development.

[denverdave]

I think peak oil awareness is a good thing. First of all, people will become aware sooner or later whether they like it or not. Second, if the awareness in people is accurate, i.e. not soothsaying propaganda that we will just simply switch to nuclear powered flying cars or some nonsense, there will be less panic when demand is pinched. third, and most importantly, PO awareness itself could blunt then impact of peaking. True awareness of what the future holds just by itself could cause a recession or depression when our economy is pegged on expectations of perpetual growth. Anything thats bad news for the economy will decrease consumption.