1. Before cheap oil comes back the price of oil has to drop- by definition.
2. Since the oil market ( and all markets) move in a series of ups and downs, the first thing that has to happen before a new downtrend in oil prices begins is for the price of oil to drop below the last low price. i.e. establish a lower low. THAT requires a short term drop to below the $48/bbl price of last May. Then the price would go back up some, top out, and drop again to form a second lower low below the last one.
Here is the chart of WTI oil: [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$WTIC,uu[l,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iLh14,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G]Link[/url]
3. Instead of that series of lower lows the actual price chart is one of each low being higher than the previous one. We are still in an uptrend. The recent low of $56 is now history with the price starting a next cycle UP!. Over $60 today. Will it go to a new higher high? Ah that is the question we are waiting for. If the current price rise fails to go to a higher high and drops below $56 again they may have a point about cheaper oil coming. Has not happened yet.
Cheap oil is not coming back until a lower low occurs and the blue line 50 day moving average heads down. In fact most analysts would require that the spot price go below the red 200 day moving average in the lower right hand corner now at about $39 to signal a true long term return to cheap oil.
Charles Dow laid out this theory a century ago. If you want to know if the ocean tide is coming in or going out, mark any big waves distance up the beach with a stick in the sand. Wait a half an hour and see if the next big wave goes beyond your stick- the tide is coming in. If the big waves do not reach your stick the tide is going out. It works in all markets too! You establish the real trend this way, by ignoring the short term waves.
If you see any hint of cheaper oil in this oil price history now is the time to snap up several of those SUV "bargains".
If that WTI chart were a chart of daily temperatures would you say winter or summer is coming i. e. are higher or lower temperatures more probable?
BTW natural gas is up 22% in the last 6 trading days.
I am not holding my breath for cheaper oil!

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