[pedalling_faster]

... Plentiful - how are they going to get along when resources are scarce ?

I'm about to sit down to a plate of potatoes and pasta and milk, and that was one of the things I have wondered about while pondering the future, during the past few months.

As far as examples that might illustrate the premise, I was hoping I wouldn't have to explain that too much. Vietnam & Iraq '91 being 2 examples, of people getting along when resources were plenty. Though perhaps resources weren't as plenty in '91 as we've been told, the official OPEC reserve numbers having been fudged (part of fighting the Cold War, they increased reserves to allow increased pumping to drive the oil prices down - to rob Russia of a source of revenue)

I have a feeling that Bush & Cheney's plans for the future include population reduction.

Depleted Uranium - has been called "the perfect weapon for killing lots of people".

Why are they spreading DU all over the Afgh. & Iraq battlefields ? I can only conclude that the policy is to kill lots of people. I think this makes it easier to seize the scarce resources. No good when the natives get restless and assert dominion over their land (e.g. Iran under Mossadegh in the '50s).

And, finally, too, ironic that Bill Gates & the Gates Foundation are focussed on decreasing infant mortality rates by treating various diseases in developing countries. While American foreign policy frequently has the reverse effect. American industries polluting the drinking water in developing countries being one example.

How will we treat those developing countries as resources become more scarce ? What is happening now in the surfboard industry is one example. The primary and major supplier of foam blanks, Clark Foam, in Orange County, California, announced their shut down on Mon. Dec. 5. For the surfboard industry, this is like "Peak Foam".

The industry is scrambling. It appears that the production, and the pollution, a problem with something called iso-cyanate, "TDI", will be sent off-shore.

[MattSavinar]

This why I don't understand the so-called "optimists." The strong always killed the weak, even on the upslope of the global energy production curve.

Now, both the strong and the weak have nukes!

Do we really think our behavior is going to be any better on the downslope than it was on the upslope?

But some on this board would have us think that once we peak and oil is $200-$500/barrel, the gods of nuclear power, clean coal, and plug-in hybrids are going to keep us all fat and happy.

Yeah right! It'll plunge the nations into wars with every ounce of capital and energy will be used to prosecute (and profit for a small minority) those wars!

Best,

Matt

[Heineken]

The basic problem is that there are about 4.5 billion more people on earth than the planet can sustainably support (source: "Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update"). The only way they're stayin' alive now is through bankrupting of the earth's natural capital. Relatively soon, this population overshoot is going to be "corrected." So I do think there's going to be a hell of a lot of dying going on in this century. My sense is that we'll likely blow ourselves up. All those thousands of nukes aren't going to just sit there in their silos forever; they're going to be used as we thrash out in desperation over our disintegrating institutions and compete for the last resources.

[Aqua]

I just can’t see how developed nations are going to live in a resource depleted world without major wars and internal frictions breaking out either. We are fat, spoilt and greedy and we won’t know what hit us on the other side of the peak.
Here is an interesting link from North Korea, which shows how we could be living twenty years out from peak. For those who aren’t aware North Korea has had a crippling oil embargo for years, a crackpot regime doesn’t help either I suppose but this article gives a good idea of how things could be for many of us in the future. Skip through the pictures and observe the peasants weaving their bikes along 10 lane motorways. Sign of things to come ?.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/p ... html/1.stm

[foodnotlawns]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'I') just can’t see how developed nations are going to live in a resource depleted world without major wars and internal frictions breaking out either. We are fat, spoilt and greedy and we won’t know what hit us on the other side of the peak.
Here is an interesting link from North Korea, which shows how we could be living twenty years out from peak. For those who aren’t aware North Korea has had a crippling oil embargo for years, a crackpot regime doesn’t help either I suppose but this article gives a good idea of how things could be for many of us in the future. Skip through the pictures and observe the peasants weaving their bikes along 10 lane motorways. Sign of things to come ?.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/p ... html/1.stm

[bobbyald]

foodnotlawns & MattSavinar

You are correct. Anyone who's studied some history and a little basic evolution knows that future resource wars are inevitable. As hard as it is to predict the future this is one thing I'm certain of.

This is why I was very disappointed with Richard Heinburgh's book "Powerdown". Despite all his good work and understanding of Peak Oil he then suggests a possible solution (Powerdown) that is nonsence. People will not live together and share reducing resources - they will fight. He even opens the Powerdown section by trying to justify suspending evolutionary laws. Sorry but you can't do that.

[Heineken]

"Powerdown" is merely a description of what would happen in an idealized world populated by rational beings. Since people are far from rational, powering down isn't going to happen---not voluntarily, anyway. And there's the rub. It can happen Heinberg's way or it can happen nature's way.

One has to give Heinberg points for trying to envision a better future, even if it's science fiction.

[Aqua]

"Thanks for the link to North Korea pictures! The empty highway was beautiful!

I woulnd't mind living like that. Beats being stuck in an office, and nobody's obese."


Yes it is idyllic isn’t it. The problem is that getting to something as self sufficient in the west is going to be a hellish road down. I mean how many of your average hard working consuming Joe citizens do you know that would accept this type of lifestyle or something resembling it peacefully.
I agree that in an ideal world a powerdown is possible but human nature being what it is it will never happen peacefully. Our system/culture in the west promotes dog eat dog competition in everything from jobs to sport, the winner/loser mentality instead of true community spirit. When the pickings get thin we are in big shit period.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'Y')es it is idyllic isn’t it. The problem is that getting to something as self sufficient in the west is going to be a hellish road down.

[mekrob]

The North Koreans are very community based, especially in this picture. They've accepted their way of life that had been forced upon them. They work together to get the most out of it. It will take many many many years for Americans to develop this kind of attitude on a large scale. I'm convinced of this after watching the aftermath of Katrina. That destruction and mayhem will be rampent throughout all American cities for sure. I do think though that life may be a little different and more helpful for the community in small communities where they already have good relationships, although the scarce recources will make tense situations arise every now and then.

[Aqua]

These pictures were undoubtedly censored and I know that this is one of the worst places to live on the planet thanks to the regime. I was just using them as an example of what life will be like without cheap oil somewhere down the line. As Mekrob points out they work together to make the most of what they got, somehow I can’t see that happening overnight in the west without serious problems developing along the way because of the winner takes all mentality.
I watched a news article about rivalry among American parents at a school sports day last year. It ended up in a major fist fight with the children trying to break it up. Can you imagine these type of people working together when things get tight or will the shoot first ask questions latter philosophy prevail for a few years before the survivors come to their senses?

[Wrencher]

I will grant you that resource wars, and regional violence are very likely to occur, but I don't think that they are inevitable.

http://www.energybulletin.net/4381.html

This is about what Cuba went through when the Soviet Union cut off their money and their oil all in one fell swoop, and no, I don't think that it happened with out considerable pain - and this in a country of largely unarmed people surrounded by a lot of police and army to keep order.

I don't know that I am as afraid actually of a peak resource problem as I am about an economic collapse, but they will proabably be intertwined.

We really have only a little control over our own lives and space - not a lot, but a little. And we are very foolish if we aren't battening down every hatch in our lives right now. Whether or not there are wars through out the world, our families and lovedones will be safer and better off if we have gardens, food storage, as little debt as possible and as many skills and tools as possible. My old farm neighbor told me when he was raising sheep that the lambs that lived a little while did better than those that died right away. And it is the same with us. We might fear, but we don't know with a perfect knowledge how events will play out, we can only take our best shot with the information that we are given and prepare as well as possible. We might not survive, but then again we might.

All the best,

Wrencher