by Flow » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 02:11:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'A')ctual recovery of the 5.4 trillion barrels will be about 22% at current technology levels = 1.188 trillion barrels of oil. Right there you have your 15-20 year supply of oil.
You hope. Wouldn't there be a peak on heavy crude, also? If so, the supply will last a lot longer, but not at the rate our growth-centred societies need it.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have said it before and I will say it again. THERE IS NOT ONE PEAK OIL "EXPERT" THAT HAS THIS DATA.
And yet you post, with absolute confidence, figures that you know are incorrect (unless you are not a peak oil expert and have somehow stumbled on the accurate data). If we're at peak now, with conventional, why do you assume that unconventional will fill the increasing gap for a decade or two more?
a) Of course Unconventional Oil will peak also. But much like conventional oil, I think the 22% extraction rate of unconventional oil will grow as technology grows. Look what has happened to conventional oil. Twenty years ago, we could only hope to get about 22% of the conventional oil out of a well. Today we are at or around 35% and with CO2 injections that number could grow to as much as 60% (but more than likely closer to 50%). Right there alone (35% to 50% = 15% increase in reserves) you have another 548 billion barrels of oil on top of the 1.278 trillion barrels of conventional oil proven reserves. Also, please do not forget that the decline will be gradual and will not happen overnight so it is not like we need to fill our entire need overnight.
b) I do not assume that unconventional will fill the gas if we are at peak right now. If we are at Peak Oil right now, we are screwed - no doubt about it. However, I do not believe the world will hit peak oil until 2020 or later which gives us at least 15 years to get our "unconventional" act together so to speak.
c) I feel there is a lot of more "Peak Oil" awareness in politics today than there has ever been. I see politicians on both sides of the fence getting on the "we need to reduce oil imports from terrorist supporting nations ASAP" bandwagon (whether they believe in Peak Oil or not). There is a bill being tossed around congress as we speak that has the goal of greatly reducing (or eliminate) the oil imports by 2015 by increasing tax credits for electric-hybrids car purchases, producing oil from coal, waste, and increased BioFuels production, etc. Also, I have to go with what the real experts say (USGS and EIA) who say peak oil will not happen for 20-30 years. The so-called "Peak Oil" experts are nothing of the sort.
d) I see Peak Oil mentioned in print all over the place in mainstream print media (though not as much on the TV media). I think awareness is being raised. More and more people will hear about this and people will start taking notice = more and more polititians will take notice. I think Katrina taking gas well over $3 a gallon helped this political process get underway too. Gave us a little taste of what we can expect and kind of gave the right people a wake up call. Even if the polititians choose to believe the 2037 data given by the USGS/EIA they have to realize it is coming sooner or later. Based on this and the current "Energy Crisis" I think the political ball will get rolling sooner rather than later.
e) I see nuclear taking over for producing our electrical demand in the future. It already provides around 20% of our electrical needs with around 100 nuclear plants across the country. We build 400 more plants and we are a nuclear society (minus any energy we can get from Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Tidal, etc).
f) Our coal supply will be turned into oil (around 600 billion barrels worth in the USA alone). During the 50-75 years that it takes to burn through our coal supply, I see hyrdogen or electric vehicles taking over (hydrogen being produced by the nuclear plants and/or nanotechnologies greatly improving the life a car battery that can power the entire car).
g) BioFuels, TCP, Wind, Solar, Tidal, Geothermal, etc. will become more and more common place but not as much as nuclear will.
Do I have all the numbers? Nope. But I have read the EIA website backward and forward (in additon to thousands of other related articles/reports) and find no reason to believe that Peak Oil has happened and will not happen for a long time. During that time, more and more unconventional oil will come online as it is now economically feasible to produce oil from these sources with oil probably never dropping below $50 a barrel again. This rise in unconventional oil production will ultimately have the effect of reducing our demand on conventional oil which will extend conventional peak that much further into the future. I also see vehicles in the USA becoming more and more fuel effiecent which will reduce our demand even more = another delay for peak oil.
by MonteQuest » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 03:26:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ') I see nuclear taking over for producing our electrical demand in the future. It already provides around 20% of our electrical needs with around 100 nuclear plants across the country. We build 400 more plants and we are a nuclear society (minus any energy we can get from Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Tidal, etc).
"You" see that happening, but the reality says otherwise. We are building 100 new coal-fired plants here in the US and have
plans for 3 nukes.
"If" a frog had wings , he wouldn't bump his ass.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by MonteQuest » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 03:38:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' '). But much like conventional oil, I think the 22% extraction rate of unconventional oil will grow as technology grows. Look what has happened to conventional oil. Twenty years ago, we could only hope to get about 22% of the conventional oil out of a well. Today we are at or around 35% and with CO2 injections that number could grow to as much as 60% (but more than likely closer to 50%). Right there alone (35% to 50% = 15% increase in reserves) you have another 548 billion barrels of oil on top of the 1.278 trillion barrels of conventional oil proven reserves. Also, please do not forget that the decline will be gradual and will not happen overnight so it is not like we need to fill our entire need overnight.
You fail to consider the fact that the 22% extraction rate will be for a product with a lower EROEI. Tar sands has an EROEI of 1.5 to 2.1 versus 30 to 1 for conventional oil. Not much room for diminishing returns before the EROEI< 1. Oil went from 100 to 1 to 30 to 1.
Do the math.
And what will the rate of this extraction be? Match conventional oil? Never happen.
You also fail to consider the cost at retail. Will unconventional oil be as cheap or cheaper than conventional oil? It had better be, or you are going to see the economy tank. Peak oil is about the end of cheap, readily available liquid fuel. We are
designed around that arrangement not
ever changing.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by The_Toecutter » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 20:02:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If" a frog had wings , he wouldn't bump his ass.
Time to get Froggy a set of wings then.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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by Falconoffury » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 23:22:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o I have all the numbers? Nope.
If you freely admit that you don't have sufficient empirical data, then why do you hold so tightly to the soft landing? There comes a time where you simply have to accept reality.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne thing that I forgot to add is once Peak Oil happens and unconventional oil is forced to pick up the slack, I think this will be an even larger wake up call to the world and especially the USA. This will prompt us to get our act together more than ever so that we will never be completely dependant on unconventional oil for our energy needs.
You have to admit, your optimism is stretching the most likely scenario. You make it sound as if we are some wise, enlightened species that will all work together and help one another. Don't you know anything about history? If we were so wise, we probably wouldn't have gotten into the peak oil mess in the first place. We wouldn't have grown to 6.5 billion people, or gone through all those terrible wars. Read about several events such as the Rwandan genocide, the Argentinan currency crash of 2002, or the holocaust. The human race is still barbaric. Fossil fuel has only made the world seem happy and friendly for a brief time in history.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
