[RacerJace]

Everyone has their particular perspective on peak oil, be that optimistic or pessimistic, complete doomer or totally oblivious. Big Gav put it very much in perspective with his eloquent words on other people's perspective that peak oil is to some a 'Philosopher's Stone' focusing their particular beliefs..

Peak Oil and The Philosopher's Stone - Big Gav

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')unstler has a deep seating loathing of suburban sprawl and modernity in general it would seem, so he sees peak oil as resulting in a semi-collapse that returns us to a future that resembles small town america of 150 years ago (plus wasted large cities and pirates ravaging the coasts of course).

He isn't alone in seeing what he wants to see of course - the Viridian camp sees a shiny green future awaiting us in the post oil world, old school oil guys like T Boone Pickens see a exploration and drilling bonanza, energy industry investors like Matt Simmons and Henry Groppe see soaring energy prices, gold bugs see rampart inflation and soaring gold prices, ferals and hippies see a return to living closer to nature, socialists see the revivial of marxism, conspiracy theorists see government/elite conspiracies and the rise of the new world order, primitivists see the collapse of industrial civilisation and human dieoff, libertarians see an opportunity for the market to bring new energy sources and technoloies to us, fascists see an opportunity for a return to authoritarianism and some of the uglier approaches to population control used by their ilk in the past, economists see suuply and demand issues being resolved by energy prices, military-industrial complex members see the need to militarily dominate the energy rich regions of the planet, end-times Christian fundamentalists see another symptom of the impending rapture and survivalists see an opportunity to say "I told you so" and finally get to use the skills and tools they've spent their lives practicing for.....

[biggav_gst1]

Thanks for the mention.

I might just add that I'm not saying any particular group is right or wrong in their beliefs (other than the obvious exceptions), just that there is quite a lot of confirmatory bias going on in some of the analysis and commentary that I see around the traps, and the future might not be quite as clear as some people think.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'E')veryone has their particular perspective on peak oil, be that optimistic or pessimistic, complete doomer or totally oblivious. Big Gav put it very much in perspective with his eloquent words on other people's perspective that peak oil is to some a 'Philosopher's Stone' focusing their particular beliefs..

Peak Oil and The Philosopher's Stone - Big Gav



Given we generally don't know what another persons beliefs are in the course of a few posts maybe it would be wise to give consideration to discovering the other's beliefs before cranking up that flame thrower.

[Andrew_S]

I think it's quite commonly admittted here at peakoil.com that some (many?) are in one way or another attracted to certain likely elements of post peak.
I for one look forward to the end of Globalisation. Unfortunately the enormous minuses will outweigh any pluses unless you're a real sociopath.

One of the fascinating things about peak oil is its breadth of scope, from techie science stuff, to sociology and politics. Almost nothing need go untouched, such are the ramifications. I've wondered whether peak oil would make a great general studies subject at colleges or even high schools.

Of course, the PTB wouldn't allow that, at least for the time being.

[crapattack]

From Big Gav's posting
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he more I observe peak oil the more it becomes clear that for most (if not all) people the peak oil meme acts as like the "Philosopher's Stone" from Harry Potter, so they envisage the post peak future as something they would like to see happen anyway.

[biggav_gst1]

While I can sympathise with this line of argument I do want to emphaises that any labels I'm using are mostly self-applied (maybe the fascists and conspiracy theorists would disagree with their descriptions but all the others would be quite happy with the commentary I suspect - read the lnks I provided and in some cases their comments on the article).

I was just trying to point out that many camps see the future they were already predicting - PO is just another plank in their supporting platform.

Again - I haven't said who is likely to be correct or otherwiseg, just made some basic observations about what various groups of people believe...

Of course, not everyone looks into a mirror when they consider the PO issue - I left out the overshoot believer camp because I haven't seen many satisfied observers there - they usually seem to be horrifed by their conclusions.

And for the record, I sort of fall partly into that camp and partly into the Viridian one.

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, not everyone looks into a mirror when they consider the PO issue

[EnviroEngr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'T')hanks for the mention.

I might just add that I'm not saying any particular group is right or wrong in their beliefs (other than the obvious exceptions), just that there is quite a lot of confirmatory bias going on in some of the analysis and commentary that I see around the traps, and the future might not be quite as clear as some people think.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnviroEngr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'T')hanks for the mention.

I might just add that I'm not saying any particular group is right or wrong in their beliefs (other than the obvious exceptions), just that there is quite a lot of confirmatory bias going on in some of the analysis and commentary that I see around the traps, and the future might not be quite as clear as some people think.

[crapattack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile I can sympathise with this line of argument I do want to emphaises that any labels I'm using are mostly self-applied (maybe the fascists and conspiracy theorists would disagree with their descriptions but all the others would be quite happy with the commentary I suspect - read the lnks I provided and in some cases their comments on the article).

[biggav]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'I') think in some cases the labels are self-applied as people do want to identify with a group. In other cases the labels aren't voluntary and certainly in many of these cases the label is used as a branding iron. Perhaps I'm particularly twichy about this, but it is easy enough to dismiss someone's argument as non-valid when you believe they hold a position because of a bias. . My point a person's position may be valid despite the bias. ...

I don't really know what you mean by the "overshoot believer camp" or the "satisfired observers", which camp is horrified by their own conclusions? ... sorry it's not clear and certainly sounds like more labelling to me -- or did they self identify? I don't know who these people are, what am I? I'm sure you've already thought of something *wink* - I'm not flaming you here, just teasing.

[crapattack]

Glad to see you took my teasing in the manner it was intended I do feel I've picked on your posting enough and you've learned your lesson about labels, so will refrain from further comments Obviously some others have felt a little the same way, ahem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')... that they subsequently saw a vision of life in the post peak era that matched what they wanted to see anyway.

[RacerJace_gst1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', '.').. As I've mentioned I do disagree with this, on the grounds that it's just not the case I know several people, myself included, whose Post Peak vision emphatically does not match in any way what they wanted. I myself would have been very happy continuing along as normal driving my car and using electricity, but I recognize the facts and conclude that it is unlikely I'll be able to do this much longer. PO vision not = pre PO desire.

Perhaps there are those in the PO community who take pleasure in the downfall, long for a return to Hobbiton, are waiting for the aliens to rescue us, or were just generally screwed up before and are screwed up now. Not much news here, freaks are everywhere!

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '
')I agree with what you are saying here.. I too had a very different view and hopes for the future. I was aware of the peak oil issue years ago but a) I never thought it would be in my lifetime and b) i had a somewhat cornucopian view on it. In September 05, I read Life After The Oil Crash and the peak oil alarm bells ringing, I was utterly devastated that my dreams of a technologically advanced life in my senior years and my children's prime years would be very unlikely. Deep down I felt there was wrongness in the wasteful consumerist ways we live but I just thought it was a phase we had to go through before we, the human race "grow up" and possibly attain something like the star trek ideology (but a lot less elitist). I still wish for that future but I know it is very very unlikely.

I think Big Gav's point is to show that our individual response to the peak oil phenomenon is clearly governed by our individual beliefs and views leading up to the realisation of peak oil, and understanding what it means for the future. But what I found intriguing was that I could in some ways identify with all of the "labeled groups"; more stongly with some than others. My stongest view however, is something along the lines of doomer-pessimist (visions of Mad Mad II & III) having had my cornecopian eyes wide shut for so long.

Big Gav.. I'm curious can you please explain what the 'overshoot' means? Is it the idea that we are all heading obliviously towards a last minute frantic attempt to boost oil production to help buy time but in doing so are unwittingly cutting short our time by a far more serious amount.?

[biggav]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'B')ig Gav.. I'm curious can you please explain what the 'overshoot' means? Is it the idea that we are all heading obliviously towards a last minute frantic attempt to boost oil production to help buy time but in doing so are unwittingly cutting short our time by a far more serious amount.?

this was me by the way... I too forgot to log in.

BTW I did a quick google on the words "peak oil" and "overshoot" and I came up with this website:
The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge
It describes an overshoot and decline of the population based on the access to easy energy followed by an inability to replace that easy energy when it runs out. Very logical stuff... pessimistic about finding alternatives but logical.

Is this your perspective Gav?

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') couldn't agree less with him.

[biggav]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I') prefer information over psychoanalysis any day.

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biggav', 'H')e's a major influence of Jay Hanson's "Dieoff" school of thought - if you go to that site you'll see Duncan's admittedly impressively macabre graphics in a larger size. I do occasionally refer to the "Olduvai Cliff" theory which is what that page describes - but its not a future scenario that I'd rate as particularly likely to come true (as its based purely on oil depletion and is overly pessimistic about it).

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '
')Olduvai theory states that we can best describe industrial civilization as a one time pulse of Energy Use Per capita (EUP) and that EUP peaked between 1970 and 2000 and will forever decline afterword.

Now you can disagree with that statement, but relating it to peak oil just shows you that you don’t understand the theory.

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '
')Olduvai theory states that we can best describe industrial civilization as a one time pulse of Energy Use Per capita (EUP) and that EUP peaked between 1970 and 2000 and will forever decline afterword.

Now you can disagree with that statement, but relating it to peak oil just shows you that you don’t understand the theory.