Where is US growth coming from - and where is it going?
Good US Economic Statistics Are Not What They Appear
PeakOil is You
More Signs Of A Booming Economy
Re: More Signs Of A Booming Economy
by keehah » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 12:46:03
Besides under-reporting inflation for additional growth, debt is another source of our 'growth.'
Where is US growth coming from - and where is it going?
Good US Economic Statistics Are Not What They Appear
Where is US growth coming from - and where is it going?
Good US Economic Statistics Are Not What They Appear
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Re: More Signs Of A Booming Economy
by smiley » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 19:45:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's right, you should instead take your information from an internet board filled with people talking out their asses about economics even though they have no training or expertise in same.
That I would certainly not recommend. However there are more credible sources than a N00B like me.
- The G7 has called upon the United States to get their financial situation back in order for the current situation is unmaintainable
- A similar statement was delivered by the president of China
- Trichet and the late Duisenberg have issued a warning that the current situation will lead to a financial meltdown.
- Greenspan himself has noted that there are structural problems within the nation's economic fabric. Issues which have to be resolved fast.
In my book structural problems and booming economy do not correlate well. It is the same as saying that you are perfectly healthy except for a brain tumor.
Now then it boils down to whether you believe the statements of an reporter which probably has about the same credentials as any member on this board, or are you willing to look at the bigger picture and incorporate the unusually outspoken warnings from the world's leading economists.
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Re: More Signs Of A Booming Economy
by Carrie » Tue 06 Dec 2005, 15:12:56
Interesting Bloomberg article today - this is a pretty ominous sign for our economy:
Housing Bubble Bursts in the Market for U.S. Mortgage Bonds
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the U.S. bond market, the housing bubble has burst.
Bonds backed by home loans to the riskiest borrowers, the fastest growing part of the $7.6 trillion mortgage market, have lost about 2.5 percent since September on concern an 18-month rise in interest rates may force more than 150,000 consumers to default.
``We've been hearing about risks of a house price bubble, easy credit and loans to borrowers that really don't qualify, and now in the last couple of months we're starting to see things turn for the worse,'' said Joseph Auth, a bond fund manager who helps oversee $135 billion at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston. ``We don't know if it's going to be a hard or soft landing.'
Housing Bubble Bursts in the Market for U.S. Mortgage Bonds
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the U.S. bond market, the housing bubble has burst.
Bonds backed by home loans to the riskiest borrowers, the fastest growing part of the $7.6 trillion mortgage market, have lost about 2.5 percent since September on concern an 18-month rise in interest rates may force more than 150,000 consumers to default.
``We've been hearing about risks of a house price bubble, easy credit and loans to borrowers that really don't qualify, and now in the last couple of months we're starting to see things turn for the worse,'' said Joseph Auth, a bond fund manager who helps oversee $135 billion at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston. ``We don't know if it's going to be a hard or soft landing.'
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Re: More Signs Of A Booming Economy
by Seadragon » Tue 06 Dec 2005, 19:12:08
Well, I guess that means no more using the house as an ATM to go buy more stuff at ChinaMart; consumer spending will go into the toilet and cause a worldwide recession, since we're basically the only consuming nation right now. Maybe I should rethink that decision not to buy gold...
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Re: BOOM: Construction At An All-Time High, Consumer Spendin
by Euric » Wed 07 Dec 2005, 14:05:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'a')nd just a few days ago I was reading on how home sales are down, and the number of houses available for sale is at a 20 year high (Reuters article)
and here we have mention that although new home sales are up, the number of unsold new homes is at a record level (yahoo finacial article)
And I also just read a few days ago about how inflation and GDP where up so rate hikes till the spring are pretty much guaranteed (sorry no link)
Can we say "Overshoot"
But hey, that's so yesterday. Today we're booming
and here we have mention that although new home sales are up, the number of unsold new homes is at a record level (yahoo finacial article)
And I also just read a few days ago about how inflation and GDP where up so rate hikes till the spring are pretty much guaranteed (sorry no link)
Can we say "Overshoot"
But hey, that's so yesterday. Today we're booming
I think we can also say the government is fibbing with their high growth reports. In our local paper, the front page of the business section is boasting how wonderful things are now, yet, turn the page and there is article after article of plant closings and thousands of lay-offs. There is a lot of creative account by the government and creative writing by the media. Someone needs to ask the people about to lose their well paying jobs and benefits if they think things are wonderful.
I heard on the TV a few weeks back that the US was paying Iraqi newspapers to print positive articles about the US occupation and what a good service the soldiers are doing for Iraq. Could it be that all of those wonderful growth figures we are getting from Washington via the media are a bit more fiction then fact?
Even after the dollar collapses, the government and its media will still be telling us everything is wonderful and growth is at 800 %.
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Re: More Signs Of A Booming Economy
by o2ny » Wed 07 Dec 2005, 15:33:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'A')s concisely as I can let me say that, the news has been unusually optimistic of late about the economy.
I agree, there is something 'too perfect' about the numbers being spouted out recently. I'm not big on conspiracies, but I just wonder if it's part of the whole holiday media retail push, in which bad economic news can certainly dampen peoples' spirits- as well as their willingness to spend, spend, spend down at the local mall. I mean does anyone out there really *feel* secure based on the black-magic going on out there in this numbers game?
I was watching CNBC a couple days ago, and the guys on were just kind of joking/whining about, well 'why are you sellers out there ruining our Santa Claus rally from getting underway?'. And then I'm thinking- is the Santa Claus rally really something that we deserve and can count on happening every year? It sounds like to them it's their birthright to see stocks shoot up for virtually no reason in December- just because that's the way it's always been. That's the way I feel about the economy right now- everything *should* be great with the job numbers and growth and all this 'expansion', but reality is painting a different picture...
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