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THE Private transportation after PO Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

How to eliminate the private automobile

Poll ended at Wed 23 Nov 2005, 12:44:14

Better public transit! That will draw people out of their cars.
8
No votes
The humble bicycle -- the most efficient way to get around.
5
No votes
A new technology that hasn't been invented yet.
1
No votes
Market forces will take care of it.
4
No votes
Better urban planning and tax penalties/incentives.
12
No votes
We should not eliminate the private automobile. Cars are good.
7
No votes
 
Total votes : 37

Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby emersonbiggins » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 15:46:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'F')ine, I don't see how you can imagine any post peak world without tolls added to the interstates. Talk about no brainers.


I can't, but tell that to Joe Sixpack who has a lifelong entitlement to untolled interstates. After all, "we paid for them already," did we not?
:roll:
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Mon 05 Dec 2005, 15:47:23, edited 1 time in total.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby Daryl » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 15:55:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'F')ine, I don't see how you can imagine any post peak world without tolls added to the interstates. Talk about no brainers.


I can't, but tell that to Joe Sixpack who has a lifelong entitlement to untolled interstates. After all, "we paid for them already," did we not?
:roll:


As I keep repeating, nothing is going to happen until there is a crisis. Joe Sixpack's going to be happy to have food in the stores and gas at the gas station - even at $10 per gallon. It will be fun to see the Jimmy Carter revisionism. I'm thinking of starting the campaign to rename Reagan Airport in DC. Jimmy Carter International Airport. Sounds good.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby emersonbiggins » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 16:03:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'A')s I keep repeating, nothing is going to happen until there is a crisis. Joe Sixpack's going to be happy to have food in the stores and gas at the gas station - even at $10 per gallon.


Some Joe Sixpacks were damn near ready for oil executive necktie parties with $3+/gallon gas. We'll never see $10/gallon gas before sheer economic and social chaos breaks out. Even at $3/gallon, the American civilization began showing its eggshell-thin veneer. I see no reason why we won't have mass revolts at around $5/gallon.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'I')t will be fun to see the Jimmy Carter revisionism. I'm thinking of starting the campaign to rename Reagan Airport in DC. Jimmy Carter International Airport. Sounds good.


I can't argue with that. Maybe we can make the standard TSA uniform at Reag..., err...Carter a cardigan with corduroys.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby thuja » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 16:19:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')

Clearly it is necessary once again to beat you over the head with my point. This is just an example of how quickly nuclear power can be deployed. This was France's repsonse to the 1970's OPEC embargoes. The post peak government response will be more even more intense and focussed.


So you're saying post peak we'll start up the nuclear program...that takes 10 years to get a nuke plant up and running...

By that time, depletion rates will have left this a crippled, economically paralyzed country.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby DigitalCubano » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 16:21:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')Cal Tech Physicist Dr David Goodstine calculated how many nuclear power plants would be needed to replace oil the energy we get from oil worldwide...Any way you dice it up, it is quite clear that nuclear indeed cannot easily replace oil for energy of transport.


Did his analysis include the increased efficiency of an EV drivetrain over its IC predecessor? There was a good thread on that very topic last month.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby Daryl » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 16:30:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')

Clearly it is necessary once again to beat you over the head with my point. This is just an example of how quickly nuclear power can be deployed. This was France's repsonse to the 1970's OPEC embargoes. The post peak government response will be more even more intense and focussed.


So you're saying post peak we'll start up the nuclear program...that takes 10 years to get a nuke plant up and running...

By that time, depletion rates will have left this a crippled, economically paralyzed country.


You should read Starvid's posts on nuclear. A plant can be built in less than 10 years. You can't forecast depletion rates, effects of conservation etc. Even if you could, your pessism about the economy is unfounded speculation.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby dub_scratch » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 16:38:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')Cal Tech Physicist Dr David Goodstine calculated how many nuclear power plants would be needed to replace oil the energy we get from oil worldwide...Any way you dice it up, it is quite clear that nuclear indeed cannot easily replace oil for energy of transport.


Did his analysis include the increased efficiency of an EV drivetrain over its IC predecessor? There was a good thread on that very topic last month.


No. Goodstein and his colleague at Cal Tech were just comparing unit for unit of energy, and without doing EROEI analysis either (energy costs of building 10,000 nuke plants not factored). So if you want to chop up that number of nuke plants based on efficiency of EVs and the amount you want to power, I'm sure a back-of-the-envelope calculation could serve you pretty well. Either way, I think what anyone can come up with is a task for electrifying our traffic jams with nuclear that would be extremely costly to do. Even a tiny fraction of 10,000 nukes would be expensive. It also would take an inordinate amount of time to build. And the commercial market place would likely not want to provide such costly infrastructure at such cheap prices for the masses, with slow rates of return on investment. It cannot be made cheap enough so that looser Wal-Mart workers can commute 70 miles to work each day.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby DigitalCubano » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 21:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'E')ven a tiny fraction of 10,000 nukes would be expensive.


Investment in one project/asset doesn't occur in a vacuum. It's a matter of cost relative to the other opportunities available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I')t also would take an inordinate amount of time to build.


I'm not sure if I buy that assessment. Seems to me that nuclear technology can be ramped up pretty quickly if the need exists.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'A')nd the commercial market place would likely not want to provide such costly infrastructure at such cheap prices for the masses, with slow rates of return on investment.


I'll write it again: investment in one project/asset doesn't occur in a vacuum. Also, as far as I've been taught, ROI is not the analysis of choice used for large infrastructure investments since it obscures long-term revenue streams.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I')t cannot be made cheap enough so that looser Wal-Mart workers can commute 70 miles to work each day.


More vitriol from the "enlightened." :roll:
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby dub_scratch » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 23:28:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'E')ven a tiny fraction of 10,000 nukes would be expensive.

Investment in one project/asset doesn't occur in a vacuum. It's a matter of cost relative to the other opportunities available.

I'm not sure what you mean by "other opportunities available." If you mean nuclear electricity demand would fetch a hign price due to EVs, then I would say that there is no guarantee that EVs will be there in the first place. I think it is unlikely that we will see an emerging market for any vehicles once oil declines occur.

In terms of nuclear electricity for general use, then I say we will have to build nuclear in order to keep the electrical grid going. This will likely take government subsidies on a large scale.

But one thing I think our government should not do is subsidize nuclear power for the use in EVs. There may even be more of a desire to discourage the emergence of a huge EV customer that can drain on the new publicly funded electricity capacity. That would be assuming the unlikely development of an EV market. Anyhow it would be absolutely critical that a broad EV market is not developed. I would be in favor on heavy restrictions of the sale and use of EVs in this country. I'd go so far as to ban long range EVs for most uses.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I')t also would take an inordinate amount of time to build.


I'm not sure if I buy that assessment. Seems to me that nuclear technology can be ramped up pretty quickly if the need exists.


The need won't exist for nuclear electricity for EVs because the public will not buy EVs in the first place.

Anyway, Isn't the window of time typically about 10 years for a nuke plant? With that type of delay how do you see such a crash program implemented? What role do you see the government playing?

Here is my take on the problem of trying to save the American car culture with a nuclear/EV crash program. After oil peaks there would be a significant time gap of liquid fuel shortage until the new infrastructure is build, which is approximately 10 years. In that time, drastic reductions in driving would have to be made due to the shortage plus for the redirection of petroleum for the building of a large array of nuke plants (the making of concrete takes petrol). During this process the government would have to institute draconian gas rationing measures in order to have the fuel available at a decent price for crash program. These conditions would likely impose significant austerity where the financial resources of the average American family would not exactly put them in the market for a new car. And in the mean time, as the American highways lie bare of cars, the American fleet of perfectly good running ICEs would be almost too cheap to justify buying any kind of new car. The public would not be motivated to purchase EVs and the car manufacturers would not find a market for the vehicles in order to justify their investment in EV production. The EV car culture second wave is a lead balloon.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'A')nd the commercial market place would likely not want to provide such costly infrastructure at such cheap prices for the masses, with slow rates of return on investment.

I'll write it again: investment in one project/asset doesn't occur in a vacuum. Also, as far as I've been taught, ROI is not the analysis of choice used for large infrastructure investments since it obscures long-term revenue streams.


OK, please layout a scenario where such an investment in nuke powered EVs is justified by long-term revenue streams.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby grabby » Wed 07 Dec 2005, 22:47:07

I think our frame of reference is so far changed that we cannot even think of alternatives in reality anymore.

Rousseau claimed that "a great princess" told the peasants to eat cake/brioche when she heard they had no bread.

[But Rousseau wrote this in early 1766, when Marie Antoinette was only 10 years old, still living in her native Austria and not yet married to King Louis XVI. So it's highly unlikely that Marie uttered the pompous phrase.]

But thats beside the point again.

the main thrust of htis post is to think about life without transportation (Oil)

Ok for one month you have no car, and neither does your neighbor and neither does the UPS man or the grocery clerk or the hydroelectric dam engineer or the policeofficer or the judge or the jailers or the mayor .

amazingly only bill gates and barbra streisand can drive in their SUV's (They will)

you think your life will change?

Nah, technology will let us now produce high tech hydrogen cars...
lets start building them..
but..
how do we get to work? the mail doesn't go and the phones are down.
hmmmm.
oh well, we COULD make some hydrogen cars if we COULD get to the big city and place our orders directly by hand...


Bill gates will always have gas.
maybe he will be the serf ruler of western washington.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby pedalling_faster » Mon 12 Dec 2005, 22:07:06

I've been walking since the Wednesday before Katrina. It was sort of a New Year's resolution that took a little time to follow through on. The buses are pretty good. Once I was standing at the stop, wearing a wet-suit and holding a board. The driver went right by. Basically I try to schedule stuff that only takes one bus ride at night. A 2 bus ride trip can be a REAL marathon.

My shopping trip on Saturday, I must have spent $200. Groceries, lumber, trudging through the streets with about 100 pounds of stuff. Walking one way, taking the bus home.

When I first started, I got major blisters. Basically, I was a tenderfoot when I started this regimen. 8 years of surfing and swimming and yoga might be good for your health, but it leaves one a tenderfoot.

Anyway, walking feels good. I walk up to the top of a local mountain a few days a week. I walk errands. I walk to social things. A lot of times I walk one way and take the bus home. Then rely on the old truck for special circumstances.

I joke that I got a friendly divorce from the truck. There's a mattress in the back and my apartment building is kind of noisy so sometimes I sleep there (in the truck).
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby nocar » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 08:29:08

Pedallingfaster, good job, I just do not understand why you are not bicycling?

And that 100 pounds that you brought home, how did you get it aboard the bus? Just want to see the whole picture.

(we have not owned a car since 1971, but that is different i Stockholm, even if we live in suburb. And I have not forsworn taxis, late at night or when having bought heavy stuff )

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby Doly » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 09:01:39

Walking has always been my favorite way of going to places, if at all possible. I know cycling is faster, but it needs a bike and the trip must be suitable for cycling.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby TorrKing » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 09:20:03

A simple (like they made in the old days) cycle can probably be sufficiently mainained by quite primitive means for hundreds of years, given enough metal around.

There are cycles enough around, we won't run out of them in quite a while, even if no new ones are produced.

Cycling without asphalt and other modern roadmaterials may be a pain though. When the trees start penetrating through the asphalt, you quickly have forest instead of road. This has nearly happened on some local roads where I come from. :-D

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby pedalling_faster » Tue 13 Dec 2005, 18:19:59

hi, responding to nocar's question

I have a problem with my eyes, a bad outcome from LASIK eye surgery. anything that involves a lot of air moving fast, past my face, dries out my cornea, which is painful.

so I walk.

as far as how I get on the bus with that much stuff - very carefully.

bicycles are great. I used to ride a lot. I go to a yoga class, some of the instructors ride their bikes, they're actually examples for me of a "post-peak" lifestyle. within america, this is one place I've noticed people living a non-materialist lifestyle. Just their clothes, yoga mat, a book of sufi poems, some carrot and wheatgrass juice.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby nocar » Wed 14 Dec 2005, 08:51:43

Pedalling_faster wrote[s]
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have a problem with my eyes, a bad outcome from LASIK eye surgery. anything that involves a lot of air moving fast, past my face, dries out my cornea, which is painful.


Have you tried glasses, like motorcyclists or downhill skiers use?

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Postby pedalling_faster » Thu 22 Dec 2005, 12:25:05

thanks for the suggestion, no car.

yeah, probably, with the right gear, i could bicycle & enjoy it.

but, no hurry. walking & taking the bus work too.
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Transportation - PO

Postby cube » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 03:45:32

Everybody seems to have their own vision of what transportion will look like in a post PO world. Here's mine. Imagine a greyhound bus aka "the dirty dog" on steroids.

What would it look like?

Imagine an articulated bus that's designed for long distance travel. Each bus has 2 drivers, so they can take turns driving. Acording to Federal law a commercial driver cannot drive for more then 11 hours straight. So if they want to really push it a bus can travel 22 hours in one day. However this can be pushed even further by having special bus stations where a "fresh" bus driver will be on standby. A travelling bus can make a quick 5 minute stop and a "spent" driver can be replaced with a "fresh" one. Basically imagine a bus that runs for 24 hours a day minus making a few quite stops for fuel and breaks. A greyhound bus on "steroids" could easily go from San Francisco to New York in less then 48 hours. That's not as convenient as taking a plane but that's still a hell of a lot faster then taking an "Amtrak" train. If you really want to get exotic imagine a double articulated bus...yes they do exist. BTW this bus is electric but a bus designed for freeway travel would obviously be diesel powered. picture

There are those who argue that when PO hits we're going to make a mad dash for electric trains. I disagree. America isn't set up for rail travel. Besides where will the money come from? Using buses would allow us to use our existing infrastructure....freeways. A good argument can be made this seem like a half-baked partial solution but nobody ever said PO was going to be pretty. :-D
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Re: Transportation - PO

Postby nocar » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 04:12:47

I agree, all those American superhighways is a giant infrastructure that must be taken advantage of in a low-energy future.

But buses require more energy than trains. I think people eventually will build rail road tracks on the superhighways - much easier than building an entirely new railroad.

Electric road vehicles have the big disadvantage in having to carry heavy electric batteries all the time. Trolley buses that take power from the grid is much more efficient in terms of enery requirements. It should not be impossible to build powerlines on the superhighways for that purpose.

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Re: Transportation - PO

Postby Micki » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 07:52:46

48hrs in a Bus!
Talk about economy class syndrome after such a trip.
Now I know what dieoff all those doomers talk about.

Naeh gimme the train any time. Bed, restaurant, space to move around...
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