[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'T')hanks for all the EV info, Toecutter. Very interesting.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'T')ell me, how did we build railroads before we had oil?

[thuja]

Hell yeah, this is a peak energy crisis, not just a peak oil crisis. Unless we not only equal but increase the production of energy lost to oil production, then we are going to see an overall decline in available energy.

This may essentially be a peak liquid fuel crisis, and will impact the sector that requires that the most (cars). But forever after, we will have less energy available to us.

Yes, we will heartily try to replace the lost oil with nukes, coal, wind, solar, etc. But as soon as the world understands the implications of oil depletion, we will be forever playing a catch up just to get us the same energy we had at peak.

While we're trying to play catch up, you car nuts think we'll have spare energy to retool an entire fleet of cars into hybrids/EV and that the consumers will be able to pay for this new fleet when energy scarcity has dramatically constricted us economically.

Whether they be EV or hybrids, cars will play a role in the future, but like the third world, they will be driven by the wealthy. There will be less of them and the poorer classes will need many alternatives. Hence, public transport, trains and bikes.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')While we're trying to play catch up, you car nuts think we'll have spare energy to retool an entire fleet of cars into hybrids/EV and that the consumers will be able to pay for this new fleet when energy scarcity has dramatically constricted us economically.

Whether they be EV or hybrids, cars will play a role in the future, but like the third world, they will be driven by the wealthy. There will be less of them and the poorer classes will need many alternatives. Hence, public transport, trains and bikes.

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ell yeah, this is a peak energy crisis, not just a peak oil crisis. Unless we not only equal but increase the production of energy lost to oil production, then we are going to see an overall decline in available energy.

This may essentially be a peak liquid fuel crisis, and will impact the sector that requires that the most (cars). But forever after, we will have less energy available to us.

Yes, we will heartily try to replace the lost oil with nukes, coal, wind, solar, etc. But as soon as the world understands the implications of oil depletion, we will be forever playing a catch up just to get us the same energy we had at peak.

While we're trying to play catch up, you car nuts think we'll have spare energy to retool an entire fleet of cars into hybrids/EV and that the consumers will be able to pay for this new fleet when energy scarcity has dramatically constricted us economically.

Whether they be EV or hybrids, cars will play a role in the future, but like the third world, they will be driven by the wealthy. There will be less of them and the poorer classes will need many alternatives. Hence, public transport, trains and bikes.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')It is silly to maintain that society will not have the economic resources to build some nuclear power plants and replace the car fleet with EV's. That stuff is peanuts.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')
Ultimately, it depends on the economics. Doomers are at their best when they argue that their is no replacement for oil as an energy source. When it is pointed out to them that there is a replacement ie. nuclear, coal and solar based eclectricity, they retreat to economic arguments. This is a much different argument than claiming their is no replacement energy source. They can't possibly predict with any certainty what the economics of this are going to be. It is silly to maintain that society will not have the economic resources to build some nuclear power plants and replace the car fleet with EV's. That stuff is peanuts. If there is an energy crisis, it will happen in less than half the time it would take under normal commercial circumstances.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'T')here is this thing called supply and demand. As the price goes up, less oil will be used.

[Daryl]

There is this thing called supply and demand. As the price goes up, less oil will be used. Again, the doomer argument is using less energy creates economic chaos. This brings us back to my point. Peak Oil doomerism is an economic theory primarily. Economic theories are like assholes, everybody's got one.

[Terran]

The super rich will still drive cars, most of the people would get around using bikes, walking, horse transport. Maybe a few nerds can get their cars to run on electricity, solar, or even hydrogen.

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'T')here is this thing called supply and demand. As the price goes up, less oil will be used.

[Wildwell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')In this world of today, nothing is manufactured or transported oil free.

[IslandCrow]

Back to the original question.

In my neck of the woods I already see a lot of older people on bikes, and one old man with a bad leg drives a small lawn tractor into town. As the slide continues, walking will increase, and greater use of the buses (if they are still running). Alternatives would be boats (rowing and sail) there are a few people in the islands who can still build boats by hand, and in winter skis.

I can walk to the shops, and if I loose my job I will probably have to sell my car (I need it for occasion long trips for work). So individual transport for me would be walking / bike / bus.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
') However, nuclear (providing electricity) requires a radical reconfiguration of our transportation infrastructure, causing further complications to mitigating peak oil. I am not doubting the future development of EVs and better and better hybrids. What I am saying is that it will be an impossible of catchup. What you say is a few nuclear plants, I say would be more like nuke plants sprouting like mushrooms at a very high rate.

[Daryl]

Electricity stats from France in 2002 (figures in billion kilowatt-hours):

Net generation: 528.6
Hydro: 60.5
Nuclear: 414.9
Geo/Solar/Wind/Biomass: 4.1
Conventional thermal: 49.0

Net consumption: 414.7
Imports: 3.0
Exports: 79.9

France can already meet 100% of its electricity needs with nuclear power. Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) have no relevance whatsoever to the electrical grid in France.

Most of Frances nuclear plants were built between 1980 and 1995

At its peak in the early eighties, the French nuclear industry was adding to the grid six 900 MW units per year (a maximum of eight in 1981), without running into any production bottlenecks. At this rate, it took only a few years to build 34 three-loop 900 MW units, then the twenty four-loop 1300 MW units, while saving along the way some capacity for export to Belgium (three units), South Africa (two units), Korea (two units) and, more recently China (four units). Now, the last series of four four-loop 1450 MW units undergoing commissioning is closing this chapter of the initial nuclear investment in France.

Apparently the technology of nuclear reactors has advanced that we could expect a crash nuclear program today to produce much faster results.

If this is so impossible how did France do it? And they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'A')nd they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')
France can already meet 100% of its electricity needs with nuclear power. Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) have no relevance whatsoever to the electrical grid in France.

Most of Frances nuclear plants were built between 1980 and 1995

At its peak in the early eighties, the French nuclear industry was adding to the grid six 900 MW units per year (a maximum of eight in 1981), without running into any production bottlenecks. At this rate, it took only a few years to build 34 three-loop 900 MW units, then the twenty four-loop 1300 MW units, while saving along the way some capacity for export to Belgium (three units), South Africa (two units), Korea (two units) and, more recently China (four units). Now, the last series of four four-loop 1450 MW units undergoing commissioning is closing this chapter of the initial nuclear investment in France.

Apparently the technology of nuclear reactors has advanced that we could expect a crash nuclear program today to produce much faster results.

If this is so impossible how did France do it? And they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'A')nd they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'A')nd they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')
France can already meet 100% of its electricity needs with nuclear power. Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) have no relevance whatsoever to the electrical grid in France.

Most of Frances nuclear plants were built between 1980 and 1995

At its peak in the early eighties, the French nuclear industry was adding to the grid six 900 MW units per year (a maximum of eight in 1981), without running into any production bottlenecks. At this rate, it took only a few years to build 34 three-loop 900 MW units, then the twenty four-loop 1300 MW units, while saving along the way some capacity for export to Belgium (three units), South Africa (two units), Korea (two units) and, more recently China (four units). Now, the last series of four four-loop 1450 MW units undergoing commissioning is closing this chapter of the initial nuclear investment in France.

Apparently the technology of nuclear reactors has advanced that we could expect a crash nuclear program today to produce much faster results.

If this is so impossible how did France do it? And they continued to fix potholes in their freeways the whole time!!!!