[Seadragon]

Or, the suburban housing construction industry?

[keehah]

I don't know what to make of all the "every thing is rosy with the US economy" MSM posts from sf3006 today.

sf3006 are you being ironic with a Peak Oil Audience skeptical of the powers that be serving the truth openly and thus would also be savvy to distortions in the reports of our economic conditions?

Examples: 'adjusted' 'core' inflation that distorts inflation low and at the same time raises GDP. And 'readjustments' of the statistics such as jobs reported and housing sales downward a month later. (ShadowStats.com)

sf3006 are you concerned our 'rosy ecomony' will not allow any demand destruction and shorten the arrival of Peak Oil effects?

Or are you an less enlightened flamer. Thinking we will lap up this pabulum?

[Vexed]

The real Unemployment numbers are what?

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nthusiasm about a growing economy, at this point, is like excitement about a metastasizing tumour.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

[marek]

[GoIllini]

So what? 215,000 new jobs created is not only going to help reverse that trend, it's also a signal that the economy's still growing strong- something that couldn't be happening within anything less than two or three years of the peak.

Two or three years gives us the time the market needs to turn peak oil from a doom-scenario to a sort of bumpy landing. Between the increasing popularity of HEVs, development in the areas of nuclear and wind (In anticipation of PHEVs and/or hydrogen), and CTL, and enormous drops in demand for low-MPG cars, we're going to see the equivalent of a $1 Trillion market-financed "mitigation program", as Hirsch would call it, in the next couple years leading up to peak oil. I think we might have already seen a couple hundred billion already in efforts to conserve over the past three years.

Thank goodness the party's ending now, rather than at peak oil. Perhaps rather than getting a doom-and-gloom scenario, we'll get something between the depression and a bad case of the '70s with at least two years for the market to get ready for high oil prices.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'E')nthusiasm about a growing economy, at this point, is like excitement about a metastasizing tumour.

[GoIllini]

How are we fueling all of this growth? By using more energy.

Think about it for a minute; while it's not a good sign for those of us expecting a peak in 2015, it's an excellent sign for those of us worried about a peak in 2005 or 2006. We wouldn't be seeing this kind of job creation if oil had already peaked.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'H')ow are we fueling all of this growth?

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'H')ow are we fueling all of this growth?

[MonteQuest]

GoIllini,

What planet are you on?

Care to back up these statements of yours?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')wo or three years gives us the time the market needs to turn peak oil from a doom-scenario to a sort of bumpy landing.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')oIllini,

What planet are you on?

Care to back up these statements of yours?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')wo or three years gives us the time the market needs to turn peak oil from a doom-scenario to a sort of bumpy landing.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'H')ow are we fueling all of this growth?

[Seadragon]

Monte, did you conjure this guy up to give yourself something to do? He's getting funnier in every post...oh yes peak oil is way off, lol.

[smiley]

Yeah the economy is booming, jobs are falling from the trees, inflation is tame and Santa Claus is sitting next to me.

If you want to believe the FOX/FED good news show than that is your choice. If you want too make a serious assesment on the shape of the US economy you need to look with a bit more scrutiny and not just post stuff from the AP.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'Y')eah the economy is booming, jobs are falling from the trees, inflation is tame and Santa Claus is sitting next to me.

If you want to believe the FOX/FED good news show than that is your choice. If you want too make a serious assesment on the shape of the US economy you need to look with a bit more scrutiny and not just post stuff from the AP.

[BO]

Montequest wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onteQuest wrote:
GoIllini,

What planet are you on?

Care to back up these statements of yours?

Quote:
Two or three years gives us the time the market needs to turn peak oil from a doom-scenario to a sort of bumpy landing.


The invisible hand of the market? Razz

I doubt 30 years is enough.

[CARVER]

The way I see it is not whether we are doing a lot more or we are paying eachother a lot more - which can result in a booming economy - but what we are doing. We are providing services and producing goods, and we consume them. Since we are not doing the things we should be doing to prepare, that means to me that this 'booming' economy is just wasting more time and resources, which is only making the problem worse.

So what is happening:
- Are we stocking up on resources: metals, energy, etc. in preparation for PO? Or are we using them just to build more McMansions, SUV's, etc. just for our pleasure today and that will have hardly any value to us in the future?
- Are the new jobs created in sectors that we will need after PO? Or are those jobs created just to increase our current standard of living instead of our future standard of living?
- Are more and more people racking up debt in order to invest in their future? Or do they use it to just consume today?

So is what we are doing today going to help in the future? Does it really matter how fast the money flows today when we are not preparing. We are just redistributing the money at the moment, we are just repositioning ourselves before we start preparing. What matters is where the money is once we start to prepare, what the distribution is of money and ownership of resources, because then everybody is going to bid for the essential resources. With just a single dollar you could in theory run an entire economy, if the money velocity would be huge (that single dollar would change hands so fast that it would not be visible to the naked eye). You could have say a yearly billion dollar economy, right? But what if suddenly one person decides to hold on to that dollar, take it out of circulation, that would stop the entire economy, because money stopped flowing. So when resources get scarce, do you think people will still give you another loan so that you can outbid them for part of the resources they need/want? It is likely that those with the resources will sell them to the highest bidder. If someone can outbid you, that means you are not getting those resources. So if you will need to buy those resources because you don't own them yourself, then it is not good when you are heavily in debt. If you have valuable skills then you will probably be kept in the loop, if not then you've got a big problem.

I see it like a variation of the game 'musical chairs', where the music has been playing for a long time. Some people wanted to hear a different song, and they sold a chair to the other players and in return they got to pick the song. So once the music stops those people are not allowed to sit on that particular chair. But the new song kept on playing and they got tired of that one as well, so they sold another chair, and another, and another, and ... While the music is playing not much changes for them, they might need to walk a bit faster in between available chairs, because there are less chairs available for them. So while the music is playing everybody is in more or less the same situation. During the game we get an hourly update of how we are doing, since picking songs is highly valuable and the number of available chairs to you has little value while the music is playing, those who get to pick the music are told that they are doing great, the value they gained on picking the songs greatly outweighs the value of the seats they gave up for it. However, when the music stops and everybody races to sit on one of the to them available chairs, then suddenly a lot of those people that got to pick the songs find themselves without a chair. Those people thought they were doing great, because they got to pick the songs they liked, and since the music had been playing for so long they thought the music would never stop. When the music stops it becomes a totally different game. Having a chair suddenly becomes very valuable, which it was not while the music was playing. Getting to pick the songs has no value at all once the music ain't playing, it will have some value again once the music starts playing again, but by that time you will probably be eliminated from the game because you didn't get a chair.

If more money is flowing faster today, that does not mean that things are looking better for the future, and that you can better handle the blow once it hits. Because once it hits that all changes, and those jobs could disappear just as easily. If we would be actually preparing for the future that would be good. Is the economy booming because we are not preparing yet?

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BO', 'M')ontequest wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')onteQuest wrote:
GoIllini,

What planet are you on?

.....

Montequest, don't even get into an arguement with this troll, he doesn't even respond to empirical evidence, nor does he back up his statements, just makes all the facts "fit" into his worldview. Here is his response to one of my posts:

....