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Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agendas

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby tsakach » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 16:44:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'P')eak oil is geological, and really isn't a problem.


Don't intend to split hairs here, but "peak oil" means the point where the maximum rate of oil extraction occurs. The problem of peak oil wouldn't exist if people simply left it in the ground, but since we currently produce oil by extracting it from the ground, peak oil really is a problem in this context.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby donshan » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 17:52:52

The basic problem in explaining peak oil is that the peak is the point of greatest abundance of oil- by definition. It is very hard to develop any story of of shortage during a period of abundance.

The average person consumes an extra 17,500 calories during the holiday period causing a 5-7 lb weight gain. That is science. Actually most people know that science even if they don't understand the process.

Does that change their behavior? NO!. Same thing every year.

It will be easier to explain peak oil when there are gas lines or gas prices are going up every week: week after week after week!

Do stories of the need to curtail calories during the holidays work? No.

Sigh! I am susceptible too, and I am a scientist! :(

http://www.dailyvanguard.com/vnews/disp ... 4331f5287d

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the American Council on Exercise, that’s what it will take for a 160 lb. person to burn off the calories consumed in a typical Thanksgiving dinner.

The average Thanksgiving meal — turkey, stuffing, cranberries, mashed potatoes, candied sweet potatoes, gravy, butter, rolls, salad, vegetables, pie, whipped cream and various beverages — is loaded with 3,000 calories. If you add the fact that most people also snack before and after the meal, the total zooms to 4,500-5,000 calories.

Besides calories alone, Thanksgiving dinner can include up to 200 grams of fat, the equivalent of six Big Macs, three pans of brownies or four sticks of butter.

But it’s not just about Turkey Day. The tendency to overeat stretches over the entire holiday season between Thanksgiving and New Year's. The average person consumes an extra 17,500 calories during this time, an amount that creates a five to seven pound weight gain if not burned off by exercise.
Last edited by donshan on Thu 01 Dec 2005, 18:01:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby The_Toecutter » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 17:57:29

Consuming too much oil is the only reason peak oil as a result of geology is the problem it is.

Too much consumption of oil is the root problem. If we weren't reliant upon it, we wouldn't have to worry.

However, consumption of oil IS at its heart political. Maximizing economic growth and corporate profits virtually demands a high amount of oil consumption.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby oowolf » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 18:13:18

Poilitical agendas risk losing credibility because of Peak Oil.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby GreyZone » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 19:06:57

There the human species stands, right smack in the middle of the railroad tracks with a high speed, fully loaded train rapidly bearing down upon it. But rather than move, the human species decides to argue with itself about whether the oncoming train is "credible" or not based on which parts of its collective brain have accepted the train's movement.

Meanwhile, the train continues down the tracks not giving one damned whit whether we politicize the topic or not.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:10:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'C')onsuming too much oil is the only reason peak oil as a result of geology is the problem it is.

Too much consumption of oil is the root problem. If we weren't reliant upon it, we wouldn't have to worry.


Too much consumption? Like if we didn't consume so much we would never reach the peak?

No, the problem is expectations of infinite growth in a finite world coupled with a money system that supports this unsustainable system. The support system exacerbates the problem because it requires continued growth to function.

Designing your entire civilization around one cheap finite energy source is the root of the problem.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby threadbear » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:36:56

Maybe someone could explain to me where this center is supposed to be? I'm a democratic socialist from Canada, so the center for me is going to fall somewhere other than where it would fall for a right wing republican pro-fascist. It's all relative. I don't know about political agendas, but political opinions of all kinds end up here. The ones I suspect have an actual agenda are the ones who try to limit the conversation, debate.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby seldom_seen » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyZone', 'M')eanwhile, the train continues down the tracks not giving one damned whit whether we politicize the topic or not.

Good train analogy. I've always liked train analogies. I've always like trains. Sure would be nice if we had some about now!

As we speed along on the express track of modern technological inventiveness, headed towards the promised brilliant future, we hear a roar and feel the pull as another train rushes by in the opposite direction. Look quickly, and we will see ourselves seated there, too, on the express called the Reality of Life, headed not into the sunrise but into the storm and the gathering darkness --David Ehrenfeld, Beginning Again
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby dissimulo » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:54:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'F')or the 'moderates' and 'centrists' out there I was wondering how we can bring Peak Oil out of being used for a political football by extremist political agendas both on the right and left and bring it 'back' to the center? This forum needs to be about Peak Oil not furthering political agendas but I fear it's falling into political chaos...


For the 'moderates' and 'centrists' out there I was wondering how we can bring the national debt out of being used for a political football by extremist political agendas both on the right and left and bring it 'back' to the center? This forum needs to be about the national debt not furthering political agendas but I fear it's falling into political chaos...

For the 'moderates' and 'centrists' out there I was wondering how we can bring the abortion debate out of being used for a political football by extremist political agendas both on the right and left and bring it 'back' to the center? This forum needs to be about the abortion debate not furthering political agendas but I fear it's falling into political chaos...

For the 'moderates' and 'centrists' out there I was wondering how we can bring global warming out of being used for a political football by extremist political agendas both on the right and left and bring it 'back' to the center? This forum needs to be about global warming not furthering political agendas but I fear it's falling into political chaos...

etc...

Good luck getting politics (or opinions) out of anything.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby threadbear » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 00:43:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissimulo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'F')or the 'moderates' and 'centrists' out there I was wondering how we can bring Peak Oil out of being used for a political football by extremist political agendas both on the right and left and bring it 'back' to the center? This forum needs to be about Peak Oil not furthering political agendas but I fear it's falling into political chaos...



Good luck getting politics (or opinions) out of anything.


I can't even get it out of the lint screen of my clothes dryer.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby The_Toecutter » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 01:13:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oo much consumption? Like if we didn't consume so much we would never reach the peak?


More like if we cut oil consumption by over 80% and reduced it even more in the future as substitutes are found, it may not even be a worry within the timeframe of our current civilization.

Say oil were in reality infinite and climate change didn't exist. How long would this civilization last? Of course, oil is finite and climate change is likely real, but even in a world of unlimited resources, this civilization is likely to either die off or evolve into something more advanced as has happened throught history. Those in the early industrial era were able to live without any significant amount of oil, so could we too in the future. In the meantime, drastically reducing consumption of oil immediately could buy us time for a slow and gradual transition away from the finite resource altogether, and if not that, have a good chance of lasting as long as our civilization would have in a hypothetical world without restraints.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, the problem is expectations of infinite growth in a finite world coupled with a money system that supports this unsustainable system. The support system exacerbates the problem because it requires continued growth to function. Designing your entire civilization around one cheap finite energy source is the root of the problem.


What I said goes right back to this...

If there is less growth or even negative growth, revenues and thus profits go down. The reason we are having unrestrained growth in the first place is precisely because industry is seeking to maximize profits, and to do that, consumption of resources must be maximized. Only oil can provide for the current demand of resource consumption as of today, especially fuel. We could have the same living standard by increasing efficiency and reducing consumption per unit output, but this shrinks the economy in the process. This also means that switching to alternatives wherever feasable usually hurts the bottom line. Too bad the resources are finite.

The sustainable world would work within the limits of a virtually closed system(aside from the occassional space debris and the ever present sunlight).

Oil won't last forever, but there are many less versatile substitutes for oil for many of the things oil is used to make. Lubricants, plastics, diesels, kerosene-substitutes, methanol, gasoline-substitutes, synthetic fabrics, petrochemical-substitutes can all be made from plant derived sources even today, especially hemp.

But:

a) given the limitations of our planet, there is no way we can consume anywhere near the amount of petroleum-substitutes as we do petroleum today
b) we'd need to drastically cut consumption of livestock and end wasteful factory farms to be able to feed our population WITHOUT fossil fuel inputs or alternatively see a population dieoff
c) we'd need to leave a good percentage of the biosphere left untouched so that we do not render our planet uninhabitable

We would have to drastically curtail use of the things that petroleum and petroleum substitutes can make in order to keep from turning the entirity of the Earth into one gigantic farm(which would inevitably die out in the future due to ecosystem limitations).

I don't know what a sustainable amount of consumption would be over the long term, except that it would entale reliance upon renewable resources that can be sustained indefinately. Basically items nature renews on a frequent basis(plants, animals, ect.) and items derived from these things for other purposes(wind turbines built from plant-based polymers and plastics, ect.). Resources that are finite that don't become irreversably consumed like iron, copper, aluminum, ect. will need to be recycled and reused as much as possible.

In the present, we probably do not have the technological development to immediately transition to a sustainable lifestyle without either a huge dieoff or a drastic reduction in living standard(or both), but we COULD reduce our consumption and keep our same living standard for a small period and as technology progresses and allows, KEEP REDUCING consumption and population until sustainability is reached.

If we were to somehow magically cut our oil consumption worldwide by 70-80% in 10 years by implementing the alternatives that are now viable(but tailored to a closed system and inherently less profitable), end globalization, and for each year on after that keep reducing consumption by 1-2% from the amount of consumption still occuring at the start of each new year, we've perhaps bought us another century(or longer) to work even more solutions to our consumption, provided population stabilizes.

Just adressing the fuel cars use(through massive public transit, reduction in car use, and cars that don't need gas) cuts 40% of America's oil consumption. You haven't touched jet fuel, lubricants, asphalt, propane, petroleum distillates, plastics, and many of the other key items oil is used to produce. Other cuts can certainly be made and today many things can be substituted. Even still, we'll still need oil for some purposes until further notice.

However, we're heading in the opposite direction of what we should be heading. I don't think the above future, with a drastic immediate consumption cut, population stabilisation and subsequent population decline to 3 or 4 billion or less over a century, slow substitution for the remaining things oil cannot make as technology progresses, and an end to globalization will happen.

There is reason I'm a doomer, even though better a world is possible in theory.

To address the root of the problem is precisely to reduce oil reliance as much as possible, as fast as possible, growth be damned. How many corporations could make money off of that strategy? The concentration of wealth and power and massive militaries we see today certainly could not exist in any real solution to this problem, if even such a solution would actually work in practice instead of theory.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby Doly » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 06:39:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')Just adressing the fuel cars use(through massive public transit, reduction in car use, and cars that don't need gas) cuts 40% of America's oil consumption. You haven't touched jet fuel, lubricants, asphalt, propane, petroleum distillates, plastics, and many of the other key items oil is used to produce.


This point is often forgotten by doomers. Get rid of the car, you get rid of almost half the problem.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby Ludi » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 06:57:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')Just adressing the fuel cars use(through massive public transit, reduction in car use, and cars that don't need gas) cuts 40% of America's oil consumption. You haven't touched jet fuel, lubricants, asphalt, propane, petroleum distillates, plastics, and many of the other key items oil is used to produce.


This point is often forgotten by doomers. Get rid of the car, you get rid of almost half the problem.


I don't think it's forgotten, it's just not being done. A solution that isn't implemented is no solution at all.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby NTBKtrader » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 08:23:21

peakoil.com is losing much of its traffic...i wonder if its because of all the political bs lately and not staying on the topic of po?

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traff ... eakoil.com
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby CARVER » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 09:05:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'p')eakoil.com is losing much of its traffic...i wonder if its because of all the political bs lately and not staying on the topic of po?


Maybe peakoil.com has reached peak traffic :shock:
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby killJOY » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 09:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eakoil.com is losing much of its traffic...


So what? Internet sites don't solve problems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i') wonder if its because of all the political bs lately and not staying on the topic of po?


This is "wondering" indeed. Wonder as you wish. Read the entrails and see what you want to see.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby abbcampbell » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 10:29:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'p')eakoil.com is losing much of its traffic...i wonder if its because of all the political bs lately and not staying on the topic of po?

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traff ... eakoil.com


Could be because lots of the folks who came here while freaking out over the summer's climbing oil prices have gone back to sleep since prices have retreated under $60/bbl
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby Leanan » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 11:01:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould be because lots of the folks who came here while freaking out over the summer's climbing oil prices have gone back to sleep since prices have retreated under $60/bbl


Exactly. It's high oil/gasoline prices that drive traffic to this site. It has nothing to do with the political content. Note "peak traffic" in September, while the current record high in crude oil prices was Aug. 30. This is the usual pattern. Try comparing that site traffic graph with one of oil prices, and you'll see for yourself.

And do you seriously believe it's getting more political here? If anything, it's less. Self-admitted Nazis used to be allowed to post here. The mods have cracked down on that. There's also a lot less of the "Bush was behind 9/11" conspiracy stuff.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby NTBKtrader » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 11:36:23

Some mornings I look at the front page and I can't find any news stories to do with peak oil. It's all climate change global warming business news..............peakoil.com is becoming the place NOT to go for insightful peak oil info and that is a fact.
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Re: Peak Oil Risks Losing Credibility Because of Pol. Agenda

Postby hotsacks » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 11:42:37

[quot/quote]

Could be because lots of the folks who came here while freaking out over the summer's climbing oil prices have gone back to sleep since prices have retreated under $60/bbl[/quote][QUOTE]

Exactly.Traffic got a little help from the hurricanes too.Crises bring out the weekend warriors and ratings go up.The long term 'grinders' here have realized the crisis isn't going away,and its' implications are many and far.Including,and maybe especially,the political fallout.
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