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THE Private transportation after PO Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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How to eliminate the private automobile

Poll ended at Wed 23 Nov 2005, 12:44:14

Better public transit! That will draw people out of their cars.
8
No votes
The humble bicycle -- the most efficient way to get around.
5
No votes
A new technology that hasn't been invented yet.
1
No votes
Market forces will take care of it.
4
No votes
Better urban planning and tax penalties/incentives.
12
No votes
We should not eliminate the private automobile. Cars are good.
7
No votes
 
Total votes : 37

Re: Personal Transportation Solution ?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 21 Nov 2005, 14:04:53

Type in electric bike into your web browser. I feel that the Giant Lite is the best kind, but there are a lot of others out there. They are really fun to ride, don't weigh (or cost) much more than a standard bike and work now.
If you get a solar charging locker always have the battery charged on 2 bikes.
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Re: Personal Transportation Solution ?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 21 Nov 2005, 14:08:21

Check this site out for electric bikes: electric bike shop
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Re: Personal Transportation Solution ?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 21 Nov 2005, 14:15:42

Check this site out for electric bikes: electric bike shop
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby bentstrider » Wed 30 Nov 2005, 08:43:43

Regardless of how expensive metals will get.
If you got an exotic-metal laced bike, then take good care of it.
Stick to the normal trails and none of that Ryan Nyquist/X Games shit.
That bike should be around long after you've passed to the next comfort zone.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby WisJim » Wed 30 Nov 2005, 19:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', '
')
Lots of people seems to think that working with horses is somehow intuitive and easy. It is not. It is complicated, and filled with nuance. I have seen experienced people so seriously hurt in working with horses, I do not believe the average person today is just going to pick up the ability overnight.


If you are in an area of the USA where there are 4H clubs, and you have grade school age children, see if there is a "horse project" in the local 4H, and see if you can enroll your kids in it (assuming they have an interest in horses). We did that with one of our sons when he was about 10 years old, and he even got to use someone elses's horse for a season or so to learn how to ride and take care of a horse. He later found and bought a horse of his own, which he later sold when he was old enough to get his auto driver's license (damn cars!!). We wish we had kept the horse for the manure it supplied.
But, 4H turned out to be a good place for a kid to learn a lot about horses.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby bentstrider » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 07:23:10

Only reason I got my drivers license at age 20(22 now) was the fact that most employers around here(California of course) frowned upon those without. The Victor Valley area has horses riding in some areas, but you got to have permits and all sorts of tired shit.
Seems here, they'll impound just about anything.
Horses, cars, motorcycles, bicycles, people.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby TorrKing » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 07:56:06

And lubricating the bicycle where it needs to, can be successfully done with animalfat (f.i. lard from pigs). Probably healthier than eating it.

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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby bentstrider » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 08:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A')nd lubricating the bicycle where it needs to, can be successfully done with animalfat (f.i. lard from pigs). Probably healthier than eating it.

Torjus Gaaren


Swine is a resource in a compact kit.
Energy needs, living essentials, the possibilities are endless.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 18:22:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no replacement for oil. Anyone who disagrees should do a bit more research on EROEI and energy density comparisons with gasoline vs alternatives. For example: a gallon of gas is equal to a ton of batteries.


This statement is flawed for two main reasons.

a) It depends on the type of batteries. Lead acid batteries at 15 wh/lb? Yes. NiMH and Lithium Ion batteries at 30 wh/lb and 75 wh/lb respectively? No.
b) a midsize electric car with no special attention to aerodynamics can go 120 miles on the energy equivalent of a gallon of gas stored in its batteries. The same size car with attention to aerodynamics could do over 200 miles on that same amount of energy.

For reference, one gallon of gasoline contains about 33,800 wh(watt hours) of energy. A 500-1,200 pound battery pack is a realistic size for a car given that internal combustion engines along with their ancillary components such as exhaust and gas tanks and such weigh on the order of 600-800 pounds for a modern midsize car. NiMH and Li Ion both fit that bill, BUT an oil company owns the NiMH battery patent and since no one is making electric cars in any appreciable volume Li Ion batteries will be expensive for a traction application(hand-building the pack does that!).

A viable private transportation solution exists, but we probably won't implement it in time before the PO crunch due to politics and corporate greed.

But you are absolutely correct about the need to decentralize and also about the fact that sprawl CANNOT continue forever. Centralization in the form of corporatism and big government is perhaps the root cause of our overconsumption of oil, lack of renewables developed, overpopulation, sprawl, and environmental degredation.
Last edited by The_Toecutter on Thu 01 Dec 2005, 18:53:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby Daryl » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 18:54:04

Just to make it clear what ToeCutter is saying. The electric car requires no oil, except a tiny bit in its manufacture. The current unused grid capacity can be used to power it as people plug in at night off-peak. Additional capacity can be added with coal and nuclear power plants, requiring no oil. 70% of oil consumption is from transportation. Can we connect the dots here??????
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 19:52:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'J')ust to make it clear what ToeCutter is saying. The electric car requires no oil, except a tiny bit in its manufacture. The current unused grid capacity can be used to power it as people plug in at night off-peak. Additional capacity can be added with coal and nuclear power plants, requiring no oil. 70% of oil consumption is from transportation. Can we connect the dots here??????


Let me make one thing clear for you and ToeJam. Urban living requires NO vehicles whatsoever. And since modern city life could be served with mass transit, trains & busses that can be electrified, modern affluent living requires no oil.

None. Zilch. Zippo.
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 20:23:19

But this topic was about private transportation. Mass transit, viable as it is and as needed as it is, is a whole different topic.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 21:01:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'B')ut this topic was about private transportation. Mass transit, viable as it is and as needed as it is, is a whole different topic.


OK Toejammer.

How 'bout bicycling & walking as personal transportation? Absolutly oil, coal & nuke free. We can use these personal transport modes along with mass transit.

BTW, EVs are not feasable because of the batteries hold too little charge and/or are too heavy. Not very efficient, them EVs. Nope!
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 21:37:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow 'bout bicycling & walking as personal transportation? Absolutly oil, coal & nuke free. We can use these personal transport modes along with mass transit.


It works very well, and I agree that we should design our cities to accomodate this mode moreso than the automobile.

However, be realistic. Walking and biking does have its limitations with speed, carrying capacity, exposure to the elements, and a need to be healthy enough to actually expend energy to transport yourself. The car still would have its uses.

I think walking/biking is perfect for short distances, but we're so goddamn sprawled that it is currently dangerous and time consuming. I'd like to see that change. For this change to occur, the car need not be eliminated, however.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW, EVs are not feasable because of the batteries hold too little charge


Too little charge for what?

Electric vehicles using NiMH and Lithium batteries can go more than 200 miles per charge at highway speeds of 60-70 miles per hour, even longer at slow city speeds. This is comparable to a gasoline powered car. Most gas cars go 250-350 miles on a full tank. There exist EVs using the above described batteries that can go 250-400 miles per charge. Google search "Solectria Sunrise". Achieved 373 miles per charge at highway driving. "AC Propulsion TZero", routinely achieves 250-320 miles per charge highway driving and can out-accelerate Corvettes and Ferraris. "Eliica", a full size luxury limouasine that can top 240 mph, out-accelerate a Porsche 911, and also do 200-250 miles per charge at highway speeds. "Mitsubishi Eclipse EV", which did 250 miles per charge on the test track and nearly 400 miles per charge driving around urban Japan. "Mitsubishi FTO EV", which did over 1,200 miles of travel in a 24 hour period INCLUDING time spend to charge(The beauty that is a fast charging system...). "Jester EV", an electric built by Greener Energy from a kit car that did over 200 miles per charge. Need I continue?

Range is no longer an issue with advanced batteries. Production volume is the issue. Without mass production for 10,000 or more cars, prices stay well out of reach of the average person. No automaker is mass producing electric cars, so prices stay high. If a company could produce 20,000 or so cars per year, a 150-200 mile range midsize electric car capable of travelling a maximum of 100 mph could feasably be sold at a profit for $12,000-15,000 if equipped with NiMH batteries. Said batteries would be a $4,500-$6,000 replacement every 250,000-400,000 miles. But an oil company bought the battery patent and is sitting on it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')nd/or are too heavy.


A battery pack of NiMH or Lithium batteries to give a midsize electric car 150-200 miles range with no emphasis on efficiency(a Ford Taurus size car or so) would weigh about the same as an internal combustion engine plus muffler plus exhaust plus gas tank plus emission controls plus many other internal combustion exclusive ancillaries.

A modern battery pack would provide no weight penalty whatsoever, and in some cars, could even make the car LIGHTER than its gasoline counterpart.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot very efficient, them EVs. Nope!


On what basis? Have you ever studied the efficiency of either electric or gas powered cars? The electric wins by a sizable margin.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 22:25:10

Oh Toecutter. I just knew if I were to post a glib & skeptical comment on EV batteries, that you would post another tedious 1000 word essay on the feasibility of these things. I think it took about 10 minuets for you to respond. :o
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 22:54:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', ' ')And since modern city life could be served with mass transit, trains & busses that can be electrified, modern affluent living requires no oil.

None. Zilch. Zippo.


Care to rethink that statement? There would be no modern affluent living without oil.

None. Zilch. Zippo.

Look around you. Not at the cars, but everything else. It 's all made from oil or by oil or transported by oil.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby dub_scratch » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', ' ')And since modern city life could be served with mass transit, trains & busses that can be electrified, modern affluent living requires no oil.

None. Zilch. Zippo.


Care to rethink that statement? There would be no modern affluent living without oil.

None. Zilch. Zippo.

Look around you. Not at the cars, but everything else. It 's all made from oil or by oil or transported by oil.


I know and thanks for pointing that out. I made that fallacious comment in order to stress a point in this forum. Why is it that people are so willing to let these EVers get away with making such nonsensical claims such as the oil free or oil-lite EV. That is total BS. The EV infrastructure would take a tremendous amount of oil to build & maintain.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Just to make it clear what ToeCutter is saying. The electric car requires no oil, except a tiny bit in its manufacture. The current unused grid capacity can be used to power it as people plug in at night off-peak. Additional capacity can be added with coal and nuclear power plants, requiring no oil. 70% of oil consumption is from transportation. Can we connect the dots here??????
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 01 Dec 2005, 23:25:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', ' ')Why is it that people are so willing to let these EVers get away with making such nonsensical claims such as the oil free or oil-lite EV. That is total BS. The EV infrastructure would take a tremendous amount of oil to build & maintain.


In this world of today, nothing is manufactured or transported oil free.

There may be viable, energy efficient vehicles available post-peak, but like the early 1930's, no one will have any money to buy them.

Peak oil is about the end of cheap oil and the economic ramifications of that. This is the most overlooked aspect of peak oil.

Solutions be damned if you can't buy them!
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 01:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here may be viable, energy efficient vehicles available post-peak, but like the early 1930's, no one will have any money to buy them.


That's why it makes sense to implement the solutions *before* peak oil's effects start to show. Otherwise it will be too late. We've got five years or less remaining, but the longer the plateau lasts, the worse the crash will be. Peak could have started now or even a few years ago...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n this world of today, nothing is manufactured or transported oil free.


It damn well could be, however(and in many local instances, actually is, but I assume you're referring to the developed world on a global scale and not some low tech village on a local scale). The catch is that you'd have to consume far, far less given ecological limitations...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know and thanks for pointing that out. I made that fallacious comment in order to stress a point in this forum. Why is it that people are so willing to let these EVers get away with making such nonsensical claims such as the oil free or oil-lite EV. That is total BS. The EV infrastructure would take a tremendous amount of oil to build & maintain.


The amount of oil needed to maintain an alternative energy infrastructure for automobiles and extensive mass transit is likely significantly less than to maintain the current fleet. More than 40% of the oil America consumes is just the fuel for its automobile fleet. That does not include the amount of oil needed to manufacture the millions of new cars built each year, and with every graph I've found on America's oil consumption(from the DOE, EIA, ect.), the oil needed to manufacture cars, maintain roads, and maintain the electric grid and such wasn't even counted in; perhaps it's even insignificant altogether in comparison to oil's key uses such as automobile fuel, jet fuel, plastics, petrochemicals, ect.

According to the EIA, 45.7% of oil went to motor gasoline, 4.4% to still gas refinery fuel, 10.3% to jet fuel, 0.3% to Napthas (solvents and paint thinner), 0.4% to kerosene(illumination, space heating, cooking, tractor fuel), 22.5% to distillate fuel oil(heating oil, diesel fuel, refinery fuel, industrial fuel), 2.9% to petrochemical feedstocks(alcohols, resins, ethers, fibers, medicines, cosmetics), 4.7% to residual fuel oil(boiler fuel, refinery fuel, bunker fuel, wood preservative), 1.2% to lubricants(lubricating oils, greases, transmission oils, household oils, textile spindle oils), 3.2% to asphalt and road oil(paving, roofing, waterproofing), 4.6% to petroleum coke(carbon electrodes, fuel coke, electric switches), 0.2% to aviation gasoline, 4.6% to liquefied refinery gases(petrochemical feedstocks, space heating, cooking, cooking, synthetic rubber), 0.2% to waxes(food preservatives, matches, crayons, candles, pencils, sealing wax, canning wax), and 0.3% to misc. products.

http://www.eia.doe...../petroleum_profile_1999/profile99v8.pdf

Pray tell me, Dub Scratch, just how much oil does it take to manufacture a gas-powered car? No where in the above statistics is included any mention of energy needed to make a car, although if you look at the list above, most of those items have absolutely nothing to do with a car's manufacture. As you can see, the vast majority is motor gasoline in any of the above items that can actually be linked to car use.

An electric car needs absolutely NO motor gasoline. None. Nada. Zero. Judging by the statistics above, that is the bulk of the oil use associated with a gasoline-powered car: it’s fuel. Remove it, and the oil use you have remaining appears very low in comparison. Batteries can be made virtually oil free(they use some plastics and electrical connections, BUT plastics can also be made from plant sources and a minimal amount is needed anyway). They need tires and parts that rely on synthetic fibers, but rubber and those other items can be made from plant derived sources, recycled, and also a negligible number is needed. The only significant oil use an electric car would really need to worry about is the asphalt for the roads it drives on. Currently, there is no oil substitute for that, and even if there were, it is a substantially large number which would take a big chunk out of what nature can provide on a sustainable basis. Electric cars need far less lubricants than a gas car. As for transportation of parts/cars/manufacturing equipment, that can be done oil free by electric rail.

I'd like to find some actual numbers though on just how much oil consumption an electric car would account for over its life cycle today, and just what those processes are so that one could determine which processes can be replaced with renewable sources and which cannot. oil consumption for an EV is certain to be miniscule compared to a gasoline powered car.

What happens when you eliminate both motor vehicle fuel and lubricants from the oil equation for an electric car?

You drastically cut oil consumption, so much so that what you use for the EV may be virtually meaningless. Well, you'd still have roads.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: What happens to private transportation?

Unread postby Daryl » Fri 02 Dec 2005, 10:47:49

Don't forget about getting rid of all those ridiculous tanker semi trucks crisscrossing every inch of the country every minute of every day. Not to mention the oil refineries that won't be running and the oil tankers that won't be sailing. Replaced by what? Battery manufacturing and extra power plants. What about the long term potential for home solar power juicing the cars? How green is that?

No wonder industry is pushing for hydrogen. Electric is too simple. They want to keep the ICE and the massive infrastructure that supports it. More profitable.

Dub is one of the aggressive anti-sprawl advocates on the boards. I sympathize with the goals, but I'm sceptical our societal structure can be so completely transformed, at least without an Eco-Stalin in power. If depletion plays out the way it looks, electric transport will probably be the only way to prevent a doomer type of collapse.
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