[emersonbiggins]

Does not compute.

Link to Reuters Article

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')size=150]U.S. new home sales surge unexpectedly in October[/size]

WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes shot up unexpectedly in October, climbing 13 percent to hit a record pace, according to a government report on Tuesday at odds with other signs of a slowdown in the long-hot housing market.

The gain in sales of new single-family homes was the biggest increase since April 1993 and took sales to a record annual rate of 1.42 million units from an upwardly revised 1.26 million in September, the Commerce Department said.

Wall Street economists had expected sales to slow to a 1.20 million pace from the 1.22 million rate previously reported for September.

The number of homes still on the market at the end of October rose to a record 496,000, but at last month's hot sales pace that represented only a 4.3 months' supply, down from 4.7 in September.

A number of other recent reports on housing had suggested a slowdown was underway after a five-year rally that pushed prices up sharply and fueled concerns the market had entered a speculative bubble.

The latest report showed the median home sales price rose 1.6 percent to $231,300 in October from $227,700 the prior month.

Sales showed strength in most regions of the country. In the West, they increased 46.9 percent, the biggest jump since December 1981. Sales rose 43.3 percent in the Northeast, and 1.9 percent in the South. The sales pace in both the South and West set records.

Sales fell 9.5 percent in the Midwest.

[PenultimateManStanding]

I don't get this. Just today on the radio news, I heard that here in San Diego, home sales and prices dropped in October.

[jmacdaddio]

Yeah, like this government would tell us the truth when they have every interest in keeping the housing bubble afloat?

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', 'Y')eah, like this government would tell us the truth when they have every interest in keeping the housing bubble afloat?

[AmericanEmpire]

Just think of all that natural gas we got to find to heat these new homes.

[Pops]

Then there is this from AP:
The report on existing homes said the inventory of unsold homes rose to a 19-year high in October, while Tuesday's report on new home sales said the inventory of unsold new homes hit a record in October. This inventory overhang is expected to depress price gains in coming months.

And
On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of previously owned homes fell by a bigger-than-expected 2.7 percent in October. That decline followed a report that construction of new homes and apartments was down 5.6 percent in October as builders reduced building plans in the face of slowing demand.

And finally
While the median, or midpoint, price of a new home rose to $231,300, that was up just 0.9 percent from the median price in October 2004 and far below the double-digit annual price gains that sellers had been enjoying.
From http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E6C6M83.html


Median price up 1% and inflation so far this year at 4%…

But, but, real estate always goes up right?

[Leanan]

Take this house and shove it

Not sure if this is a good thing or not. More people are moving to places like Nevada and Arizona, which may be cheap but aren't very livable without cheap energy. And moving to the midwest so you can buy a bigger house could backfire, if Kunstler's prediction comes to pass and heating the house costs more than the mortgage payment.

[gnm]

Idiots, Vegas and Arizona are death without cheap energy, water, and lots of it... And New Mexico is not far behind. 4 out of 5 people moving into my area are "coasters" who have cashed out of houses in San Diego, NY, etc.. Most are whiners who start griping the minute the power goes out (news flash jackasses this is rural NM) or the water runs out. Of course they use water at twice the rate of the locals, stressing the well's bigtime.

-G

[frankthetank]

"Yeah, Vegas is great in the summer...you'll love that 115F dry heat"...

Only thing they have going for them out there is the proximity to the agriculture lands of CA (which are fed mostly by CO River). Other then that, mild temps in the winter would be nice.

Yup, around here McMANSIONS are about to feel the pain, with the past 2 weeks being awfully cold (with highs 20F below normal somedays...most!). Luckily i can deal with cold inside living temperatures.

[DoctorDoom]

Doesn't Vegas get most of it's water from the Colorado river / Lake Mead and it's power from the Hoover dam?

Water:

http://www.lvvwd.com/html/wq_faq.html

Hoover Dam (note 56% of the power goes to LA):

http://www.lvlife.com/2001/04/feature_t ... y_fix.html

The desert also has an abundance of, er, solar power:

http://www.powerlight.com/company/press ... egas.shtml

[Daryl]

I guess they are in the best shape in terms of electricity. In other words, the extreme weather there is heat. AC is electrically generated. Not too many doomers claim we won't continue to be able to keep the electrical grid up. Not sure how the regional power plants in Southwest break down in terms of coal, NG and nuclear.

The bigger problem is gas prices. No mass transit. Might not even be possible to put people on buses, given the low density housing and low density employment i.e. sprawl.

[gnm]

You can't eat electricity. And the hydro won't be there if the water levels are critically low. See the Lake Mead drought The water situation is already bad there, and a couple drought years snow-wise and LV/Phoenix are in trouble. And both places are heavily reliant on NG and oil. Basically massive hideous suburb wastelands.

-G

[Leanan]

I think we won't be able to keep the grid up. It's in sorry shape as it is. I suspect a lot of infrastructure will become too expensive to maintain post-peak.

I don't think it will collapse overnight or anything. But gradually, people will use it less and less, because it's so expensive. It won't be repaired as often or as well - or at all. Over the years, it will collapse in the reverse order of how it was build. Rural areas first, cities last.

Ironically, Phoenix used to be livable without air-conditioning. It's not any more. The reason? Urbanization. All that pavement and all those buildings, absorbing heat.

[TorrKing]

Will not this possibly burst the housing bubble? From what I have learned in my economy classes the US housing bubble is one of the greatest threats to our economy right now (Well, seems like they are uninformed of peak oil). Could this spark a recession?

Torjus Gaaren

[Revi]

It may already have sparked one. All these people fleeing huge Mc Mansions will have to live somewhere. They will start to move into smaller houses closer to work. That will cause that segment of the real estate market to go up. It's like the market for smaller cars. Everybody wants out of their huge SUV's. They are bidding up the smaller cars.

[ravensburg]

This is something that I never new before but Vegas gets very little power from the Hoover dam. Back when they built it Vegas was a small town and did not need much power. When they wrote the contracts for the power distribution I think they took only 7 - 9 % most of the power that is generated goes down to California as they bought up most of the contract when it was first written. I think Vegas gets most of its power from plants a good distance away that are almost all coal fired. (I think they are coal fired)

[frankthetank]

How is the firm energy generated at Hoover Dam allocated?

Arizona - 18.9527 percent
Nevada - 23.3706 percent
Metropolitan Water District of Southern California - 28.5393 percent
Burbank, CA - 0.5876 percent
Glendale, CA - 1.5874 percent
Pasadena, CA - 1.3629 percent
Los Angeles, CA - 15.4229 percent
Southern California Edison Co. - 5.5377 percent
Azusa, CA - 0.1104 percent
Anaheim, CA - 1.1487 percent
Banning, CA - 0.0442 percent
Colton, CA - 0.0884 percent
Riverside, CA - 0.8615 percent
Vernon, CA - 0.6185 percent
Boulder City, NV - 1.7672 percent

[diemos]

I've always thought that LV had a bright future post-peak. Given that it's isolated and easily defensible I think that the FEDs will seize it and turn it into a closed city where the elite will lead an idyllic suburban existance. Abundant hydro and solar power. Food from Yuma to the south. And the starving hordes can easily be mown down by helicopter gunships as they try to straggle through the desert.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mericans moving away from high home prices

[Daryl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'I')'ve always thought that LV had a bright future post-peak. Given that it's isolated and easily defensible I think that the FEDs will seize it and turn it into a closed city where the elite will lead an idyllic suburban existance. Abundant hydro and solar power. Food from Yuma to the south. And the starving hordes can easily be mown down by helicopter gunships as they try to straggle through the desert.