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I have a question

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

I have a question

Unread postby PlannerBee » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 15:03:48

Lets say I have $15000 in US dollars and I want to go to my bank tomorrow and withdraw it to pay off a loan that I owe that amount on but something happens on the way to the bank (this is hypothetical). I get there and they say my $15000 is now worth only $5000. Would I still owe $15000 to my lender or $5000?
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Re: I have a question

Unread postby MacG » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 15:07:29

A factor of three? Guess you would owe 45000...
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Re: I have a question

Unread postby Sparaxis » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 15:40:03

You would still owe the same amount and you would get the same amount of money to pay it off. The "something happened" could be hyperinflation, such that your 15k can only buy 5k worth of goods now. But the loan is based on nominal dollars, not the value of the dollar.

Inflation is kind to debtors since it reduces their debt burden (assuming their income rises commensurately). That's a reason why, given the current US public debt burden, that an inflationary future seems more likely than a deflationary one.
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Re: I have a question

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 26 Nov 2005, 16:19:20

Correct. Remember Wimpy from Popeye?

"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'I')t is interesting to note that a devaluation of the dollar is technically the same as the USA defaulting on it's debts. Why? Because as the dollar declines, its purchasing power for the holder of dollar denominated debt drops as well.

For example, Wimpy buys hamburgers from the EU in dollars. The EU loans Wimpy $10 on Friday to buy two hamburgers until next Tuesday. On Tuesday Wimpy pays the EU back the $10, but over the weekend, the dollar declines 50% against the euro. The EU is technically paid back, but now the $10 will only buy one hamburger.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: I have a question

Unread postby GoIllini » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 19:22:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PlannerBee', 'L')ets say I have $15000 in US dollars and I want to go to my bank tomorrow and withdraw it to pay off a loan that I owe that amount on but something happens on the way to the bank (this is hypothetical). I get there and they say my $15000 is now worth only $5000. Would I still owe $15000 to my lender or $5000?


Depends. If your loan is an adjustable rate that changes every minute, you're in trouble. Otherwise, you'll probably be fine.

Get a fixed or at least a capped loan. That way, you won't have to worry about hyperinflation.
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Re: I have a question

Unread postby bartholland » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 19:35:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ets say I have $15000 in US dollars and I want to go to my bank tomorrow and withdraw it to pay off a loan that I owe that amount on but something happens on the way to the bank (this is hypothetical). I get there and they say my $15000 is now worth only $5000. Would I still owe $15000 to my lender or $5000?


If the "something happens" is an ongoing inflation your lender wil be more aggresive in getting its $5000 since tomorrow it might be worth $1000 in goods.

So, for instance, if one asian country starts to collect their debt-money from the us ofsetting inflation, the rest will soon follow.

Maby coming winter?
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