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"Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

"Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 12:58:11

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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby MacG » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 15:04:18

Very well written. Thanks!
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby strider3700 » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 19:10:53

Well that ended far happier then I expected. The real idiots got totalled and the mostly stupid just didn't make out as well. Still it's a great piece to read and it keeps reminding me that gold isn't a bad choice of what to do with my money.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 19:15:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith arb opportunities thinning out, the solution was more debt.

WTF is arb?
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby stu » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 19:43:01

So 2006 is the year it all goes wrong.

Lets wait and see what happens.
"The age of excess is over. The age of entropy has begun"
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby jaws » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 20:23:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith arb opportunities thinning out, the solution was more debt.

WTF is arb?
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby dissimulo » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 21:01:44

The end felt a bit like Oil Storm, where the Russians came to the rescue and all was well.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby something_awfull » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 09:24:10

yeah,the ending seemed a bit 'rushed', but definately worth a read.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby killJOY » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 11:36:00

I really like Jim Puplava.

So I was disappointed to get to the end and find complacency.

If this was a fable, then the moral is:

DON'T WORRY. EVERYTHING COMES OUT IN THE WASH.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby dbarberic » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 12:10:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'S')o 2006 is the year it all goes wrong.

Lets wait and see what happens.


The four part series is a story weaving in actual real facts and stats to demonstrate how things could potentially fall apart and to help the reader understand the relationship between different economic stats in the real world. Don't take it for fact that all this will happen exactly has written in the year 2006.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby lateStarter » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 14:26:11

I'll check again, but I was under the impression that this was not the end of the story (In other words, there would be a part 5). The intro with the delayed terrorist activity led me to believe they would be making an appearance by the end of the story, but since they didn't - Wait for part 5!

It did not seem like a 'happy ending' story to me or even the end of the story at all. Most likely, we will see another addition to the account that interweaves actual events as they unfold in 2006.

Please tell me that was NOT the end of the series! If it was, they get a thumbs down...
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby RdSnt » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 14:53:07

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatc ... ml#barbera

I'd recommend reading this article. Barbera and Puplava collaborated at the beginning wth Barbera providing the broad outlook and the series that Puplava has written as the details along the way.

In its general outlook Barbera has been remarkably accurate.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby donshan » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 15:35:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')t FinancialSense.com:

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1123.html


This is docudrama that actually has already happened in the 1990s. Read the history of Long Term Capital Management. LTCM was a hedge fund set up using the risk management methods based on the Nobel prize in Economics work of Black and Scholes. Scholes participated in a leveraged hedge fund parleying a few million dollars into several billion of investor money ( having a Nobel prize meant you were right, didn't it?) and leveraged that into $1.2 Trillion in assets. at about 300 to 1 loans to actual cash put up.

When the fund failed it almost brought down the banking system,

Read the history at:

http://www2.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/ltcm.htm
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/book/genius.htm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oger Lowenstein explains how Long-Term became arrogant due to its success and eventually leveraged $4 billion into $100 billion in assets. This $100 billion became collateral for $1.2 trillion in derivatives exposure! With this kind of financial leverage even the most minute market move against you can wipe you out several times over. Talk about financial weapons of mass destruction! This risk did not deter Long-Term, though.


Finally in 1998, Russia defaulted on its bonds- many of which Long-Term owned. This default stirred up the world’s financial markets in a way that caused many additional losing trades for Long-Term.

By the spring of 1998, LTCM was losing several hundred million dollars per day. What did LTCM’s brilliant financial models say about all of this? The models recommended waiting out the storm.

By August 1998, LTCM had burned through almost all of its $4 billion in capital. At this point LTCM tried to exit its trades, but found it impossible, as traders all over the world were trying to exit as well.

With $1.2 trillion dollars at risk, the economy could have been devastated if LTCM’s losses continued to run its course. After much discussion, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street’s largest investment banks decided to rescue Long-Term. The banks ended up losing several hundred million dollars each.

What became of Long-Terms founders? Were they jailed or banned from the financial world? No. They went on to start another hedge fund



The moral has not been lost on others. If you can borrow enough money from the banks, it is "heads you win, tails, the Fed and the banks bail you out to save the banking system and themselves, and you go on to yet another scheme.


So today everyone is doing it. NOW are you scared? 8O 8O 8O

BTW, most of the $1.2 trillion lost was depositor's money from the lending banks. Under the old gold standard, these banks would have probably collapsed, and tens of thousands of people and businesses that thought they had savings, would wake up to be wiped out too. Because of this risk, under the gold standard, bankers would never have permitted such risky lending.

Under today's monetary system the FED backed up the lending banks, and was prepared to print money if required to make good the depositor's money. Over time the loss was absorbed mostly by the banks which made the bad loans out of their earnings. Thus, advocates of the present monetary system can cite LTCM as a case where everything worked and the system is sound. :wink:

Today, people buying houses with very little down, and interest only mortgages are playing the same game. If only one person defaults the mortgage lenders step in to make good. If too many default all at once , the banking system is at risk yet again.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 23:26:50

The "John and Terry Wheeler" story where they "swallow the camel" by getting a loan for a house and then "strain out a gnat" with a realtively minor amount more to actually live in the house is too funny.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ithout ever realizing it, both John and Terry had become addicted to credit.

So a $400,000 loan for the house is OK but refinancing to get less than $100,000 is insane?

If you buy a house on credit that you can't afford to maintain and it falls apart then what?

Naturally you've got to use more credit to deal with the costs of a house on credit.
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby cube » Mon 28 Nov 2005, 16:18:50

That was actually a decent read. I thought it was funny how the Wheelers were portrayed as financially ignorant. I guess they were suppose to be representative of the average American couple. However in the end they still made a gain of $200,000, nothing to sneeze at. My gut tells me that when the real financial storm hits the average American won't be getting off the hook that easy....and here's why.

Traders and investors have a saying, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Hogs get slaughtered."

The Wheeler's friends the Bensons were hogs and that's why in the end they lost money. They were sitting on a profitable position and they could of cashed out early and be happy with the profits. But they got greedy and kept on holding out expecting prices would go in their favor indefinitely. This is what a trader means by a "hog".

Most Americans are "hogs". In all fairness it's not because of greed but ignorance. We have been "educated" by the "media/education system" that the secret to investing is buy and HOLD HOLD HOLD. The concept of closing your position early and being happy that you made a reasonable profit (what the Wheelers did) hasn't been advocated by the financial elites. They have a vested interest in keeping the public ignorant. :-D
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Re: "Day After Tomorrow" Part 4 is up

Unread postby strider3700 » Mon 28 Nov 2005, 17:01:07

True

The longer a market goes up and up the more people that jump in and the more that they "invest in it" look how many people jumped into the dotcom's and lost most of it.

I got the points the story was trying to make I just didn't like the ending. I was looking forward to seeing the results of the terrorist event.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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