$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'W')hat I believe is that less and less people will listen to Peak Oil experts and their doomer predictions the longer away the peak is.
The price of natural gas in North America may keep their attention, tho.
PeakOil is You
Looks like it's now or never for doomers.
Re: Looks like it's now or never for doomers.
by Keith_McClary » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 03:14:14
According to exploration geologists and geophysicists I know, it's getting very hard to find and what is found mostly gets produced in a couple of years. There's lots in Qatar but the LNG tankers and terminals to get it to NA won't exist for years.
So people in NA may be looking at replacing their NG guzzling furnaces with oil, wood, heat pumps, solar or coal. They will be very aware of peak NG and wary of spending money to convert to oil, which not even the Lynch's and Yergins are predicting to be cheap and plentiful over the next few years. Maybe later.
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Re: Looks like it's now or never for doomers.
by Antimatter » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 04:45:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') agree with Stu. If 2006 comes and goes as usual, peak oil will be another cry of wolf. Peak oil will be chalked up to yet another Biblical "revelations." Be prepared, Christ is returning, and Christians have been waiting on his return for over 2000 years now.
Why 2006? ASPO is now predicting peak oil for 2010, Laherrere 2015, etc. There is a certain doom cult who will be bummed out if nothing happens before then though I agree. The ones who sit there masturbating over any slight dip in production, and the ones who want an overnight event.
"Production of useful work is limited by the laws of thermodynamics, but the production of useless work seems to be unlimited."
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Re: Looks like it's now or never for doomers.
by Andrew_S » Sun 27 Nov 2005, 05:59:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds like most of the middle class becoming ordinarily poor and of course the lower classes doing even worse is your idea of the end civilization.
It will because all hell will break loose when that happens. If and when the middle class in this country starts starving all hell is gonna break loose. You will have rioting and looting. You name it.
Being ordinarily poor doesn't mean starving. Rioting and looting do not mean the end of civilization. I'm being strict about the use of term "end of civilization". The USA could have civil war and break up but that is not necessarily the end of civilization.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '
')Why do you think the government is preparing for all this stuff with more military and police control lockdown? They expect the shit to hit the fan when the average man on the street can no longer afford his fuel and food. That explains all their new terrorist police state laws. Its gonna be for when the average man on the street starts tearing shit up.
Because they want to retain control.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', '
')The end of the middle class will be the end of society in this country.
The USA, like everywhere, has existed with only a very small middle class in the past. It's possible. Maybe people simply do want to imagine being ordinarily poor. But it isn't the end of civilization.
The end of civilization means no social organisation beyond family group level (i.e no organized towns or villages), and no trade, and no division of labour between such small groups. I think that even if the SHTF these things will still exist, on a smaller scale and more local. Maybe the USA will break up but that in itself would not be the end of civilisation.
