[Lokutus]

I have been following PO since 2002 with slowly increasing interest. It's only been since this past August that I've really begun digging into it.

However, I'm a skeptic by nature and need multiple data points from a variety of sources before I can accept anything as big as the Theory of Peak Oil.

So, for every person telling me PO is real there are 100 telling me not to be a "chicken little" and to just "Don't worry, be happy." Most of my friends are starting to think that I've "lost it" over PO. Then there are the others who know just enough to throw more doubt into my head with statements such as, "Oh don't worry, we're starting to find trillions of barrels below the continental shelf, or in the Spratly Islands, or under the Rockies," etc.



I am also skeptical of my underlying motivation for wanting to believe in it. First, to be honest, I'd like PO to come fast so that we can kiss good-bye this insane world of globalism where all there is to life is mindless consumption. The relocalization movement appeals to me very much.
Second, there's also my opinion that the planet is grossly over-populated by humans at 6.5 Billion. I see PO as a solution to this (although I hope for a gradual reduction in population and not an apocalyptic die-off).

So, can you tell me what finally sold you on PO as the soon-to-be-here reality from which there is no escape?

Was it arguments presented by POers? Was it observation of what the oil industry giants were doing?

What finally sold you on PO?

[pea-jay]

My "Oh Crap." Moment came when the nitty gritty details on alternatives revealed their no suitable alternative to fossil fuels, proported technologies like fusion or fuel cells never to pan out and no one actively planning for the inevitable transition. But what fundementally cemented the idea that we are doomed is the fact that everything about our existance is predicated on the need for growth--population growth, economic growth, material growth, you name it. At some point Leibig's law would have to kick in.

Better to have that at 6.5 Billion than 65 Billion.

[bobcousins]

I wish people would make even the simplest distinction between "Peak Oil" and "Peak Oil doom scenario". Peak Oil is an obvious fact. Doom resulting from PO is not.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') wish people would make even the simplest distinction between "Peak Oil" and "Peak Oil doom scenario". Peak Oil is an obvious fact. Doom resulting from PO is not.

[TorrKing]

A freind of mine made me realize the facts about PO only three weeks ago. Had never heard of it before. Actually, it was kind of embarrasing to me as I study economy and he is studing to become a nurse. We have learned about the estate bubble and similar inferior problems, but PO has never been mentioned with a word.

Torjus Gaaren

[Jake_old]

I knew peak oil was a real problem after watching Albert Bartlett's exponential function lecture.

Although I think Bob Cousins is right that we do not know that PO = Doom, it is the opinions I come accross here that make me expect and prepare for the worst. Kind of a self fulfilling prophecy.

[RonMN]

My first exposure to PO was LIFEAFTERTHEOILCRASH.NET and it was so gloom & doom, it really pissed me off...i set out on a studying mission to disprove PO. After 6 months or so, i realized i was trying to argue points that are just not arguable...ie...

- Our economy is based on continuous & infinite growth (it is).
- Oil is a finite resource (it is).
- EVERYTHING (and i mean EVERYTHING) runs on oil (it does).

Then the lightbulb went on & i decided to sign up here on PO dot com.

I do think that if they could somehow hurry fusion, it could save our asses...but i don't think that idea is realistic at all.

[IslandCrow]

Reading the BBC news I found a link to the ASPO web site. I liked what I saw of the issue of Peak Oil, but was a little careful knowing how in the 1970's some of the problems were overstated, and technological development help to reduce the amount of energy needed for activities. What I liked about the site was the clear statement that they were dealing with a lot of unknown factors, and so the estimates could change (I tend to dismiss anyone who does not have a flexible approach to estimating the future — I am now working in finance and constantly update our short term budget). I also liked the site providing links to some of the major oil companies.

It was one of these links that convinced me of Peak Oil. This was the Exxon Mobile 2004 report on “Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Alternative Energy” The graph on page 4 of this report, showing a very dramatic fall in oil and gas from ‘existing production’ and a massive amount (100 out of 160 million barrels a day by 2015) that would have to be found from ‘Required New Production’. If I just concentrated on the written report then the world was fine etc... but the graph seemed a variance with what was written. It was this graph that convinced me that Peak Oil was a problem, and one that would becoming soon.

[Quicksilver]

For me probably understanding two important concepts. EROEI and exponential growth.

It took me about 6 months of research into energy alternatives (like the hydrogen economy ) for the enormity of the problem to sink in. I've been studying peak oil since 1999.

[oil4u]

Watched "End of suburbia" and then re-watched cause I couldn't believe the mess we are in. Researched more and more.

[Seadragon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', ' ')Most of my friends are starting to think that I've "lost it" over PO.

I am also skeptical of my underlying motivation for wanting to believe in it. First, to be honest, I'd like PO to come fast so that we can kiss good-bye this insane world of globalism where all there is to life is mindless consumption. The relocalization movement appeals to me very much.
Second, there's also my opinion that the planet is grossly over-populated by humans at 6.5 Billion. I see PO as a solution to this (although I hope for a gradual reduction in population and not an apocalyptic die-off).

[MonteQuest]

Production follows discovery for peak oil.

The doom part?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lternative energies will never replace fossil fuels at the scale, rate and manner at which the world currently consumes them, and humankind's ingenuity will simply not overcome the facts of geology & physics.

[Windmills]

I somehow ran into "LifeAftertheOilCrash.net." Although I had been pondering many of the issues for many years, that site coalesced everything into one depressing blow. It echoed my thoughts, so I could hardly argue. I had all the pieces of the puzzle in my hand, I had just never put them together. I also think what had been missing from my casual conversations was the timing and the potential apocalyptic severity of the consequences if not enough is done.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') wish people would make even the simplest distinction between "Peak Oil" and "Peak Oil doom scenario". Peak Oil is an obvious fact. Doom resulting from PO is not.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough I think Bob Cousins is right that we do not know that PO = Doom, it is the opinions I come accross here that make me expect and prepare for the worst. Kind of a self fulfilling prophecy.

[Lokutus]

I read both.

My understanding is that all of the alt energies put together could replace about 25-30% of our current oil-based energy consumption.

So this is a serious problem, unless of course, we accept permanently black skies by reverting back to coal as our primary energy source.

But then that begs the question, when do we hit Peak Coal?

2050?

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'I') read both.

My understanding is that all of the alt energies put together could replace about 25-30% of our current oil-based energy consumption.

So this is a serious problem, unless of course, we accept permanently black skies by reverting back to coal as our primary energy source.

But then that begs the question, when do we hit Peak Coal?

2050?

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')What's the thing that finally made you a Believer?