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Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is peak oil the tip of the iceberg?

Yes, it is a symptom of a greater disease.
194
No votes
No, it is just a stepping stone in energy history.
37
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Total votes : 231

Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby scordry » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 17:21:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'Y')es, but not roots based upon religious beliefs, but based upon the ecological principles and laws that govern all living things. The interconnectivity of all life.


But what you've said here is a religious statement. Your statement seems to indicate a beleif that nature exists in a certain kind of harmony: if mankind would just leave well enough alone, then everything would be hunky-dory.

But nature is not harmonious--that harmony is something imposed on it by our observations. The only real ecological principle or law at work in nature is survival of the fittest--every creature for itself (or at least its species).

We have already played by the laws of nature and proven that we are winners. Hurray! Our prize is global annihilation.

We can't play by nature's rules; we need to come up with something better.

Our technology has promoted us to management, and we need effective managerial prinicples. Such principles do not exist in nature, where all the players are on the factory floor. One such principle comes in the form of a metaphor derived from the traditional Christian doctrine of Creation: the image of mankind as garden tender.

The gardener is charged with the duty of keeping the garden working, which means making judgement calls. Those judgement calls certainly must be informed by knowledge of "the intricate web that Mother Nature weaves."

Respecting all life to the point of refusing to kill a cockroach is probably not the best managerial approach--afterall, the bacteria that it carries and deposits all over one's kitchen counter-top will not recipricate the respect. However, too much respect may be a better mistake than too little; it is certainly superior to shooting everything that moves.

A lot of rambling to say that the root is not found in Nature; nature is the problem--human nature.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 17:37:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scordry', ' ')The only real ecological principle or law at work in nature is survival of the fittest--every creature for itself (or at least its species).

We have already played by the laws of nature and proven that we are winners.


Then we aren't the winners, are we?

You misunderstand "survival of the fittest." All that means is each living thing is adapted to its particular niche. Every living thing depends on other living things to survive. "Survival of the fittest" doesn't mean "kill everything else."
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby scordry » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 17:51:31

"Survival of the fittest" is a way of saying things compete for their survival, and if they are surviving, they are obviously fit for living in that ecological niche.

Contrary to National Geographic TV programs, things do not adapt to their environment, they only struggle to survive. In the process of struggle (and competition) certian traits are bred-out via "happy accidents" of genetic mutation. Polar bears thrive in the arctic because they happen to have the right equipment; it's not like they moved north and thought, "Gee, we should grow hollow fur so that we'll keep warm." The language of "adapting to" ecological niches is misleading as to what is actually going on--an unfortunate anthropomorphism.

Nature's way is competition.

And they would kill everything if there wasn't something killing them already. Such is illustrated well in the Australian continent when rabbits and cane toads were introduced by humans--a managerial mistake due to misunderstanding the nature of natural competition.

:roll:
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 18:14:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scordry', '"')Survival of the fittest" is a way of saying things compete for their survival, and if they are surviving, they are obviously fit for living in that ecological niche.

Contrary to National Geographic TV programs, things do not adapt to their environment, they only struggle to survive. In the process of struggle (and competition) certian traits are bred-out via "happy accidents" of genetic mutation. Polar bears thrive in the arctic because they happen to have the right equipment; it's not like they moved north and thought, "Gee, we should grow hollow fur so that we'll keep warm." The language of "adapting to" ecological niches is misleading as to what is actually going on--an unfortunate anthropomorphism.

Nature's way is competition.

And they would kill everything if there wasn't something killing them already. Such is illustrated well in the Australian continent when rabbits and cane toads were introduced by humans--a managerial mistake due to misunderstanding the nature of natural competition.

:roll:


Golly! Ya think we don't know this junk?

This makes me tired. All I have strength to say is you're an idiot.

"Adapt" and "evolve" mean "change over time." Not Lamarckism.

I'm so tired of this idiocy.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 20:31:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scordry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'Y')es, but not roots based upon religious beliefs, but based upon the ecological principles and laws that govern all living things. The interconnectivity of all life.


But what you've said here is a religious statement. Your statement seems to indicate a belief that nature exists in a certain kind of harmony: if mankind would just leave well enough alone, then everything would be hunky-dory.


The foundations of Biology/Ecology based upon scientific observations and empirical data is not a religious statement. Nature exists in a constant harmony of corrective feedback mechanisms that provide balance and stability.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scordy', 'B')ut nature is not harmonious--that harmony is something imposed on it by our observations. The only real ecological principle or law at work in nature is survival of the fittest--every creature for itself (or at least its species). Survival of the fittest" is a way of saying things compete for their survival, and if they are surviving, they are obviously fit for living in that ecological niche.

Contrary to National Geographic TV programs, things do not adapt to their environment, they only struggle to survive. In the process of struggle (and competition) certain traits are bred-out via "happy accidents" of genetic mutation


You are close. The "survival of the fittest" means those species that have random genetic mutations that promote reproduction and survival in a changing environment will have those mutations incorporated into the genetic pool, and over time, will result in an evolution of that species..which was what Darwin was talking about when he wrote that.

Competition does not drive evolution. Natural selection does, through random genetic mutations.

Do not confuse this with the “struggle for survival”. The strong may win the battle, but lose due to an inability to adapt to a changing environment. Beating the competition and acquired traits are not inherited.

Did you see the recent War of the World’s movie? Classic example.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ebyss » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 22:28:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
') The UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


Really? How odd... they are struggling to feed the current one.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 22:33:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
') The UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


Really? How odd... they are struggling to feed the current one.


Not for lack of food.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 22:48:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
') The UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


Really? How odd... they are struggling to feed the current one.


This is what we like to call a "fib" :

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fibby McFibster', 'T')he UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


"Only ten years now remain before the
2015 deadline by which world
leaders have pledged to reduce
hunger and extreme poverty by half and to
make substantial gains in education,
health, social equity, environmental
sustainability and international solidarity.
Without stronger commitment and more
rapid progress, most of those goals will not
be met."

http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.a ... 200e00.htm
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 22:56:24

So far in the poll, 85% see peak oil as a symptom of a greater disease; that there is a much larger and more pervasive underlying problem.

On the other hand, 15% see peak oil as just another problem to be solved by man’s ingenuity; the doomer’s issues are nonsequiturs; mankind’s course is sound, he just needs a new energy source to “stay the course”.

What drives this 15% polarity of thinking?

How do they see it so different given the certitude of mathematics with regard to growth in a finite world? I see it a selfish short-term thinking and ignorance of the natural world.

As a former NPS ranger, I can attest to the latter. It is pathetic.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 23:40:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The ultimate flower-loving utopian eco-fairy banana', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
') The UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


Really? How odd... they are struggling to feed the current one.


This is what we like to call a "fib" :

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fibby McFibster', 'T')he UN's FAO doesn't seem to think feeding the future population will be a huge problem.


"Only ten years now remain before the
2015 deadline by which world
leaders have pledged to reduce
hunger and extreme poverty by half and to
make substantial gains in education,
health, social equity, environmental
sustainability and international solidarity.
Without stronger commitment and more
rapid progress, most of those goals will not
be met."

http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.a ... 200e00.htm


Of course there are problems but I was pointing out they don't buy the Malthusian die-off scenario. Here you go:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n recent years the growth rates of world agricultural production and crop yields have slowed. This has raised fears that the world may not be able to grow enough food and other commodities to ensure that future populations are adequately fed.

However, the slowdown has occurred not because of shortages of land or water but rather because demand for agricultural products has also slowed. This is mainly because world population growth rates have been declining since the late 1960s, and fairly high levels of food consumption per person are now being reached in many countries, beyond which further rises will be limited. But it is also the case that a stubbornly high share of the world's population remains in absolute poverty and so lacks the necessary income to translate its needs into effective demand.

As a result, the growth in world demand for agricultural products is expected to fall from an average 2.2 percent a year over the past 30 years to 1.5 percent a year for the next 30. In developing countries the slowdown will be more dramatic, from 3.7 percent to 2 percent, partly as a result of China having passed the phase of rapid growth in its demand for food.

This study suggests that world agricultural production can grow in line with demand, provided that the necessary national and international policies to promote agriculture are put in place. Global shortages are unlikely, but serious problems already exist at national and local levels and may worsen unless focused efforts are made.

World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 23:47:36

Folks, there are other threads for this debate.

Please stay on topic.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby o2ny » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 02:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', ' ')the concept of humanity as a virus on this planet, or our current way of thinking as a 'disease' just seems wrong to me.


The metaphor is not meant to infer that we have a "disease."

In the medical field, treating the symptoms rather than the disease, is akin to treating the consequences rather than the cause.

Peak oil is a consequence caused by what?

Answer: Expectations of infinfite growth in a finite world, and developing a lifestyle and monetary system to support and facilitate that false premise.

Can can you support a sound premise with a false support system?

Of course not.

So, our monetary sysytem and our lifestyle must change to support that new sustainable paradigm, correct?
{Carver's posts on a new money system were split to here: }

New money system



Yes.. but first we change our minds and then the systems get changed as a result. The choice to adopt a new mindset (or paradigm) brings about the change we need.

Every action follows a thought. Everything we've created so far as humans began as thoughts, coupled with a belief that what we wanted to produce was possible. This website began as an idea, and then it was followed by page designs, coding and hard work to manifest the idea into reality. At some point along the way, even if it was just a passing thought under the radar of consciousness, the builders of the site were absolutely *certain* that it could be done- there was no doubt. If we collectively shift our thinking patterns into a realm where we *deeply* understand our place on the planet- from an ego-desire driven world to a spiritual-joy driven world, our actions will follow and everything will change.

First we start to think about what a sustainable city or world might look like, then we can actually build it. But if it is to be successful than before any building takes a place we have to have an unshakeable knowing that it's possible to achieve the desired result... this knowing could be also defined as 'faith'... and faith that we *can* create a new system is the only way we're going to get out of this mess.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 23:00:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')
What drives this 15% polarity of thinking?

How do they see it so different given the certitude of mathematics with regard to growth in a finite world? I see it a selfish short-term thinking and ignorance of the natural world.


Ha! Now I'm answering my own questions. :lol:

I found this quote on Kunstler's Nov 14 blog:

Senator Charles ("Chuck") Grassley of Iowa, who said the following a few days ago:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')You know what? What makes our economy grow is energy. And Americans are used to going to the gas tank (sic), and when they put that hose in their, uh, tank, and when I do it, I wanna get gas out of it. And when I turn the light switch on, I want the lights to go on, and I don't want somebody to tell me I gotta change my way of living to satisfy them. Because this is America, and this is something we've worked our way into, and the American people are entitled to it, and if we're going improve (sic) our standard of living, you have to consume more energy."


Kunstler

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kunstler', 'T')o be more precise, actually, Grassley's statement displays something closer to childishness than sheer stupidity. It comprises a set of beliefs or expectations that are unfortunately widespread in our culture, namely, that we should demand a particular outcome because we want it to be so. This is exactly how children below the age of reason think, in their wild egocentricity, and it is the hallmark of mental development to grow beyond that kind of thinking.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 24 Nov 2005, 23:57:37

Excellent thread. Reality one way or another will impose itself on the human hubris that believes that we are entitled to something! Peak Oil is the peak of the iceberg, we may want to try to hold on to the status quo like the 15% or hurry peak oil along like the 85% who understand and who hope they live to see the transition unfold in their lifetimes but in the end rest assured reality will impose itself.

A follow up question is, "What will it take to reach global collective consensus that we have reached or exceeded our limits of growth and what if anything can we engineer socially or politically or economically to make the cultural spiritual transformation required to create a new sustainable paradigm? It is not enough that a small minority of bhuddists practice mindfullness or a small percentage of christians practice a pure form of humble forgiveness, how do we bring these cultural assets that the human family has along with the ecological truths that Montequest alludes to and weave a new cultural paradigm? This cant simply be superimpsoed on the existing Newtonian consumer paradigm until it begins to reveal it's weaknesses probably brought on by the energy that sustains it going into decline and when consumerism fails to deliver. For many it has already failed but for most they continue to hold on as tenaciously as the politician from Iowa quoted above.

Can a cultural transformation toward a sustainable paradigm happen while the current Newtonian consumerist paradigm continues to deliver on it's promise? We are approaching a convergence where our energy is peaking, our water is peaking, soil, the tipping points of global warming are manifesting themselves. But yet we still are going to the mall and society is still being held together by the Newtonian paradigm. We sense it is coming to an end. There are ecologists and visionaries, religeous leaders etc. who see this convergence. But to get from a few visionaries seeing this to mass consensus is a journey that
seems to require the breakdown of the existing paradigm to make room for a new one. I haven't seen any evidence presented in the past ten years that I have studied this issue that demonstrates a cultural transformation possible without first the breakdown of our current belief system. Can we have a collapse or our belief system and transformation to a new sustainable paradigm without the collapse of the physical systems that hold our current belief systems in place?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 01:21:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ') A follow up question is, "What will it take to reach global collective consensus that we have reached or exceeded our limits of growth and what if anything can we engineer socially or politically or economically to make the cultural spiritual transformation required to create a new sustainable paradigm?...Can we have a collapse or our belief system and transformation to a new sustainable paradigm without the collapse of the physical systems that hold our current belief systems in place?


Thanks for weighing in, Ibon. Nice to have you enter the debate.

This is a very good question.

History has shown that mankind always constructs a model for ordering life’s activities; this is essential, it explains why we do what we do. Our current worldview goes unquestioned for the most part; from childhood on it is an ingrained and unconscious response. Few really grasp how if affects their perception of the reality around them. We like to call it “human nature,” and therefore immutable. Other societies (as I have pointed out) would find it rather difficult to comprehend a few of the notions we ascribe to “human nature.” History for us is a continuing exercise in engineering; the smoothness of polished steel, the thunder of a finely tuned motor, or the precision of levers and wheels. The Machine Age.

This worldview has a powerful hold over our perception of reality, such that many can’t possibly imagine any other way of looking at the world. And it is difficult, if almost impossible, (even in scientific discussions) for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm.

The more steeped a worldview in the material side of life, the less conducive it is to the human quest for spiritual transcendence. Many have speculated over why a certain world view emerges. I think the energy condition of the environment sets the broad frame or model for the worldview that emerges.

Newtonian mechanics emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries as we shifted from renewable to nonrenewable energy forms. We moved from a world of cycles and flows to one of quantities and stocks. The concept of cycles and seasons disappeared. The perception of the world as one of decay and renewal shifted to one of perpetual quantities. Time was divorced from the natural unfolding of life; we were no longer dependant upon the idiosyncrasies of nature's ebbs and flows.

We will soon realize that we are about to return to that world of cycles of flows with the advent of renewables once again. This reality probably cannot be taught, it must be experienced--most likely the hard way.

If we were moving to fusion and rethinking our penchant for material growth and it's impact on the environment, and ultimately, our ability to sustain our society, I would be more sanguine.

However, as this change differs from all the preceding ones in that there is no likelihood of its leading to increases of population, but even perhaps to the reverse, I think it highly unlikely we will go quietly into the dark.

So, no, I am not optimistic that we can change our paradigm without major socio-economical upheaval.

What can we do? I'm not sure we can do anything at this point besides suggest alternatives. Too much asset and cultural inertia.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 11:57:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')This cant simply be superimposed on the existing Newtonian consumer paradigm until it begins to reveal it's weaknesses probably brought on by the energy that sustains it going into decline and when consumerism fails to deliver. For many it has already failed but for most they continue to hold on as tenaciously as the politician from Iowa quoted above.


Yes, tenaciously so. More from the 15%: 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'C')heap power is absolutely paramount for preserving the high, comfortable lifestyle 99,99 % of the human race wants. Humanity will get itself what it wants, even if it means destroying the climate. the only way to save the planet is to deliver a cost effective alternative.

That is what it is all about.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'I')t means that I feel that its preferable to wipe out all wildlife on earth and construct a vast banal civilization of glass and steel (with whatever actually is biologically necissary to support humanity, crops) in the quest for growth than to stagnate, where it seems many others are rather horrified at the concept of such a world without natural places, if they get beyond believing such an artificial world is impossible.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 12:13:53

"It means that I feel that its preferable to wipe out all wildlife on earth and construct a vast banal civilization of glass and steel."

8O
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Wildwell » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 13:36:31

I'm interested in this view that 500 million to 1 billion people could have a high quality (lets say US standard) of living. As the US consumes 25% of energy and has a 250 million plus population, if there were just 1 billion people having that lifestyle we'd be in the very same situation, surely?

Really isn't the bottom line really a matter human greed (lack of self control promoted in the west and power regimes in the east) and lack of spiritual enlightenment leading us into the wilderness?

Surely it's luxury items (like cars) that are the root cause and the people that own them, which aren't really needed for human life?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 13:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'I')'m interested in this view that 500 million to 1 billion people could have a high quality (lets say US standard) of living. As the US consumed 25% of energy and has a 250 million plus population, if there were just 1 billion people having that lifestyle we'd be in the very same situation, surely?


That's a very good point, and I'm not at all convinced 1 billion people could live a First World existence sustainably. Especially since this style of living depends on the exploitation of a mass of very poor people and their ecosystems.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Fri 25 Nov 2005, 14:39:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'W')hy is space expansion impossible in montequests world? He claims not to be the mad-max variety doomer, so in his hypothetical powerdown world we never climb for the stars? In all the thousands of years that we'll continue to exist on earth?

How about this: How far on the Kardashev scale will humanity climb? We havent yet achieved type 1, but my contention is we'll get to at least type III if we dont get smashed by a giant asteroid in the next century.


Thousands of years? I honestly doubt it.

Dezakin, Dezakin! I used to think like you when I was 15. I still believe in technology and progress. I belong to the Star Trek fan category. I haven't missed a single episode. I think that dreaming about space conquest and technical marvels is a really good mind exercise.

But let's all grow up and live in the real world, a world full of wonders and extremely complex. So complex that I'm amazed at how easy some people come up with solutions to every conceivable difficulty we have in front of us. Solutions that solve some of our problems but create many other.

I'm starting to understand that technology is becoming more of a problem than a solution. Technology is trying now to patch blunders that were made long ago by technology itself. There are already classical examples like antibiotics and bacteria resistance or the wonders of pollution cleaning after technological pollution and so on.

You see, all you are trying to do is come up with easy fixes to problems beyond our realm of understanding. That will probably stop the toothache but will almost certainly give us liver cancer or heart attack.

I can assure you that life and the universe are more complicated than we can ever imagine. And IMHO I don’t think we can conquer complexity by adding more complexity (i.e. technology).

If you didn't yet read Thomas Homer-Dixon's - The Ingenuity Gap, please do yourself a favor and spend some time getting acquainted to the "real iceberg" that's going to, sooner or later, hit our lifeboat, The Earth.

If you already read it, do us a favor and read it again, maybe you missed the point.

After that if you still want to go down the path of technological hubris, I rest my case. I guess you are incapable of realizing that we as a species are on the wrong track.
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