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PeakOil is You

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Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Is peak oil the tip of the iceberg?

Yes, it is a symptom of a greater disease.
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No, it is just a stepping stone in energy history.
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Total votes : 231

Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Raxozanne » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 04:38:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ezakin, I want you to answer this question:
When is enough, enough?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')For me, never.


I was wondering Dezakin, do you any sort of moral limitations?
I mean if you wanted more and more and the only way to get it was to kill a few thousand people would you do it?

p.s: potable water is not a derivative of energy in poor countries where they can't even afford cars let alone desalination plants and are nowhere near an ocean/sea. That is why many people over in third world countries are currently dying due to dehydration or drinking putrid water.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Doly » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 05:00:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ezakin, I want you to answer this question:

When is enough, enough?


For me, never. I'd say its a fair estimate that thats how the whole of humanity feels, and if not its certainly how they behave.


People do have a limit to how much food they want to eat and in general how much they want of anything. We live in a world where advertising makes an effort to push us over our natural limits of wanting, and often succeeds. But people do get fed up eventually of overeating, sleeping around with as many sexual partners as possible, or any other kind of excess you could think of. And I think many people are getting fed up with consumerism, which is another form of excess. But obviously, you aren't one of them.
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Peak everything

Unread postby GenghisKen » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 07:43:14

If the problems of PeakOil were the only problems we had I would be cautious about the future(drive less etc.). If Peak natural gas were the only problem I would buy a wood stove. If uranium didnt have a Peak I wouldnt worry about the future being a place without light. If we werent at Peak farm land I wouldn't worry about food(suburbs CAN"T feed us).
I wouldn't worry about any of it if we could actually turn money into real resources but the only thing it seem we can make lots of is paper(money). Seems to me the one thing we really need is Peak People (or rather Peak consumers).
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 07:48:44

"the one thing we really need is Peak People"


We will get it.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 10:57:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', ' ')I believe PO is the sympton of a mindset- a way of seeing ourselves and the world that is hardwired- it is a survivalist, individualist mode of living which is primarily geared to pursue wealth, status, and security for the short-term...But I wouldn't choose to call this mindset a 'disease' because human nature is just that- 'nature'- and it has served humanity well enough to get us this far.


History tells us that this mindest is not hardwired nor human nature per se, but a world view based upon a certain paradigm of thinking.

For the Greeks, history was a process of continual degradation. Plato and Aristotle believed that the best social order was one with the least amount of change and growth. Growth did not signal greater value and order, but less. The ideal state was the state that slowed down the growth process of decay as much as possible. Their goal was to hand down to the next generation a world as much preserved from change as possible.

The Christian view of history, which dominated western Europe throughout the middle ages, perceived life in this world as a mere stopover in preparation for the next. The human purpose was not to "achieve things" but to seek salvation.

Our current world view is based upon classical, or "Newtonian mechanics" after Sir Isaac Newton and his laws of motion. Big thinkers of the time concluded that the world was one of mathematical precision, not confusion. The Greek view of history was deemed mathematically impossible and therefore false. The Christian world view fared little better.

The answer, it was assumed, was to use the principles of mechanics to rearrange the stuff of nature in a way that best advanced the material self-interest of human beings: The more material well-being we amass, the more ordered the world must be getting. Progress, then, is the amassing or ever greater amounts of material abundance which leads to a more ordered world. Science and technology are the tools to get the job done. Reduced to its simplest abstraction, progress is seen as the process by which the "less ordered" natural world is harnessed by people to create a more ordered material environment.

This re-ordering has limits.

We are reaching them. The law of diminishing returns reigns.

The maintenance costs are becoming prohibitive.

Time for another paradigm shift in our thinking towards the world and our place in it.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 11:28:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')History tells us that this mindest is not hardwired nor human nature per se, but a world view based upon a certain paradigm of thinking.


Really? What societies living in a bountiful environment with an more or less advanced technology haven't done the most to advance the tradgedy of the commons?

Jay Hanson has an interesting theory on why humans are genetically biased towards constraint.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 11:56:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')History tells us that this mindest is not hardwired nor human nature per se, but a world view based upon a certain paradigm of thinking.


Really? What societies living in a bountiful environment with an more or less advanced technology haven't done the most to advance the tradgedy of the commons?


The total population of the world has remained essentially constant for most of the history of mankind. World population fluctuated between 10 million and 300 million for most of the last 10,000 years, never reaching 1 billion until about 1850. The biggest single factor in preventing sustained population growth had been infectious diseases. Nature kept our assault on the commons to a minimum. So, in that sense, yes, we have always tried to advance the tradegy of the commons. To the extent we try, depends a great deal on how we percieve the world.

With germ theory, we overcame that obstacle and with fossil fuels/technology to support the now burgeoning population, the die was cast.

Had we been truly intelligent, we could have limited our numbers on the commons. Think of the world we could have had: a small healthy population, relatively free of disease and suffering with a high quality of life—almost forever. In our insistence to breed with freedom on the commons, we squandered that opportunity. And since the population went up due to the population sustainability of fossil fuels, it will go down as they decline—although there is uncertainty as to what a sustainable global population would be without them.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby DoctorDoom » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:09:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Population growth has been trending down and if we stay on course we will only add
another 3 billion. If we don't stay on course, we will double to 13 billon in 54 years at 1.3% growth. I don't find adding another 3 billion people fortunate, nor reassuring.


Nor do I. However, it's going to happen, so we need to deal with it. It's not clear we can't. The earth and our civilization are too complex to be easily modeled, no matter how carefully.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Hardly a separate issue. We need to reduce C02 emissions by 60 to 70% to prevent runaway global warming. The only realistic way to do that is to stop burning fossil fuels or sequester the C02.

Alternatives cannot replace them in the scale needed.


Nuclear power won't scale?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Yes, look at what happened. Efficiency gains lowered the cost of energy. We now have big McMansions, SUV's, have a TV in every room, two or three refrigerators, couple of cars. If efficiency gains lower the price, it will encourage new consumption, will it not?

Conservation, which you did not address, is a self-induced recession.


The profligacy you cite resulted not from efficiency but from lower prices. Pre-peak, that's what you get. Post-peak, increasing scarcity will keep prices higher so you won't see that type of backsliding.

I disagree that convservation must lead to recession, but this probably needs another thread to fully discuss. Suffice to say that people can do other things, and that not all activities that our present economy counts as "valuable" have equal impact on resources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Yes, we do. GDP growth, historically, has been about 3%/year to service the debt and provide jobs for the newcomers. It requires a concomitant growth in energy consumption as well, primarily electricity, at about 3%/year. In a declining energy environment, we may not be able to meet this demand and ramp up alternatives at the same time. If the decline rate is high, we know we won't.


Our GDP has outpaced energy consumption and population growth. Plus I haven't granted your premise that we'll be in a declining energy environment; again, you seem too dismissive of the potential of nuclear power as a last resort to keep technological civilization going.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Question is: how many people, at what level of prosperity, for how long, do we wish to be the history of man?

100 years? 1000? 10,000?


I'd settle for anything that can stave off a dieoff for at least 200-300 years. That's long enough for our decendants to come up with something else, even if it's a managed decline in population leading to a powerdown. (Though I'd hope they could do better, perhaps get the population headed down while developing fusion or a complete switchover to renewables.)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')All the power in the world cannot make arable land, potable water(desalination? get real :roll: ), and enlarge the capacity of the earth's environmental sinks. Even with unlimited energy, there are limits to growth in a finite world. We must think in terms of sustainability in an ecological sense, not just from a energy perspective. That is a "solution in isolation."


True, though having limitless power can help use what's available more effectively to support a larger number of people. The so-called "green revolution" demonstrates that. And again there is a huge amount of waste in the current system. I recently moved to a new house, and my water bill indicates that I'm using 100 gallons per day, all by myself. Shocked, I called the city and they claim mine's actually "low" compared to most people! No way do I need 100 gallons every day to sustain myself. So, I have to believe there is a lot of slack in the present order. If pressed, people could do without lawns, swimming pools, etc. Is it desirable? I would say no. It's better to live in a less constrained world with fewer people stressing its resources. But is it possible? Probably.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Let's make an effort to not try and debate all these issues in this thread.


Sorry, I thought you wanted to discuss these points. Well, I'll make this my last post here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Let's focus on the broader poll question: Is PO a symptom of a greater disease, or is it just a stepping stone in energy history.


It's both. We were ready for the transition to the next energy technology, nuclear power, 3-4 decades ago. We drew back from it for many complex political reasons, and so instead of the smooth transition we might have had, we are going to have a rough transition in a crisis atmosphere, and we are going to have to deal with the consequences of an additional 3 decades of burning FFs. After the transition, assuming we survive, it will be seen to have been yet another stepping stone. Will mankind ultimately run up against some fundamental limit to growth? On the earth, certainly. Where is that limit? Hard to say - we could be past it now, or it could be 100s of years in the future. There are still vast areas of knowledge about the physical world, particularly the world of the small, that have yet to be mastered. Will we be able to expand beyond the earth's confines and keep the growth game going longer still? Even harder to say. Right now it looks unlikely, but a lot of what we take for granted today would have seemed unlikely to someone 200 years ago.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:22:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uddhists practices mindfulness in all aspects of daily life, not just on the meditation cushion. It is very hard! But the idea is if one is mindful and present, the happiness of the moment gives insight to the emotional drive of why one wants a Hummer, or a McMansion, or would want to go to war etc....


It seems to me that Siddhartha's point wasn't that everything is happiness. Isn't the first truth that everything is ultimately unsatisfactory? Happiness and joy are as much distractions, in the Buddhist viewpoint, as pain and sorrow, and to pursue them, even through an ostensibly spiritual practice such as meditation, is illusory.

I agree that spirituality is the proper remedy for the materialism that has prevailed for so long. But what kind of spirituality? I'm betting it probably won't be any of the old religions, though elements of all of them will survive.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Raxozanne » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:46:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', '
')I agree that spirituality is the proper remedy for the materialism that has prevailed for so long. But what kind of spirituality? I'm betting it probably won't be any of the old religions, though elements of all of them will survive.


How about animism?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In some animistic worldviews found in hunter-gatherer cultures, the human being is often regarded as on a roughly equal footing with animals, plants, and natural forces. Therefore, it is morally imperative to treat these agents with respect.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:49:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Nuclear power won't scale?


Can it? Even if peak is some 5 years away? Does it matter if you look at the whole "iceberg"?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')And since the population went up due to the population sustainability of fossil fuels, it will go down as they decline—although there is uncertainty as to what a sustainable global population would be without them.


Remains to be seen. Perhaps nuclear and/or fusion will step up.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:56:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'H')ow about animism?



Works for me. :)
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby o2ny » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 13:58:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ur current world view is based upon classical, or "Newtonian mechanics" after Sir Isaac Newton and his laws of motion. Big thinkers of the time concluded that the world was one of mathematical precision, not confusion. The Greek view of history was deemed mathematically impossible and therefore false. The Christian world view fared little better.

The answer, it was assumed, was to use the principles of mechanics to rearrange the stuff of nature in a way that best advanced the material self-interest of human beings: The more material well-being we amass, the more ordered the world must be getting. Progress, then, is the amassing or ever greater amounts of material abundance which leads to a more ordered world. Science and technology are the tools to get the job done. Reduced to its simplest abstraction, progress is seen as the process by which the "less ordered" natural world is harnessed by people to create a more ordered material environment.

This re-ordering has limits.

We are reaching them. The law of diminishing returns reigns.

The maintenance costs are becoming prohibitive.

Time for another paradigm shift in our thinking towards the world and our place in it.


So it sounds like the the paradigm shift spawned by the Newtonian revolution of thought is the 'disease' you're talking about in the poll topic. But I wonder if this worldview is not really a sickness, but just another step along the progress of human awareness, one that will soon be eclipsed as we awaken to a higher understanding of our purpose on this planet (the next paradigm shift you're talking about). Certainly the understanding of matter and physics was a necessary step to get us to the next level. If we're talking about a period of millions of years for humans to evolve, the time from Newton to now is just a few nano-seconds... the concept of humanity as a virus on this planet, or our current way of thinking as a 'disease' just seems wrong to me. I'd like to believe we are just passing through the turbulence of growth and change, and the mistakes we are making now are like the mistakes a child makes as it is clumsily (but happily) finding it's way in the world. We are not masters of this world, quite the opposite, and I'd like to think we'll be led to our true form by the same fundamental forces that have taken us this far.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby holmes » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 14:53:33

Most of my friends and I have been retreating from the swarm our whole lives. First the east coast then Seattle, then portland metro area, then portland suburbs, etc.. My one friend has been retreating form the swrm and its endless filth and death. He is in his 50s now and is tired of retreating. He stopped ina rural area in colorado. Its not going to be rural for much longer though. the swarm is moving in and bringing all their parasitic vices. This will be the story of my life until death. My one future child, girlfriend and me. The swarm consumes, destroys, degrades, murders and breeds. repeat. it is a parasitic dysfunctional swarm. It loves mysery and contamination. it flees the death however it drags it along with it. this swarm IS death. Goodbye and good luck.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 15:13:15

Buddhist thought, to me, is the paradym shift, Monte, whether practiced by Buddhists or not.

The practice cultivates mindfullness, and the realization that the ego is programmed at any early age to desire pleasure, and to try to avoid suffering.

This approach to life works okay for a five-year-old, but not so great for an adult or a culture. It just creates a wheel of ever-deepening suffering and grasping.

The practicality of Buddhist thought is awakening from the habitual patterns of ego thought. Our consumer society seeks to reinforce the habitual patterns through advertising and marketing. You MUST have a Hummer to feel complete, even if it makes you a deeply indebted work slave living a life of quiet desperation.

Someone who practises mindfulness and awakes from the dream can find happiness in a simple flower arranged elegantly in a vase. Or can appreciate the wildness and wonder of nature without the filters. Or can find joy in simple acts of compassion to fellow beings.

Really, its a way to become fully awake to the universe, versus living in the dream of fear and desire. It's a sort of humility that is very noble.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 15:57:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoctorDoom', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Let's make an effort to not try and debate all these issues in this thread.


Sorry, I thought you wanted to discuss these points.


There are already threads that discuss those issues. To try and wade through all of them here would create a monster thread that no one would read. 8)

We need to stay on the topic of the broader question.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby scordry » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 16:08:31

Well, if we're really going to be broad and open this thing up with an eye towards solutions, I'd like to throw my two-cents in and hope that his thread isn't so politically correct as to reject off-hand what I'm about to offer.

As for what spirituality might look like in 100yrs, that is hard to tell, but one thing that is certain is that it will be closely connected with the difficulty of life for whichever group of people is in question. Studies of religion among Native Americans have revealed that those with relatively "easy" lives (meaning abundant food, water and shelter) had fairly well-developed pantheons with different types of deities, etc. On the otherhand, other peoples lived under harsh conditions and barely survived; these latter groups had virtually no formal religion and even no marriage or funeral ceremonies.

This can be seen in contemporary situations as well: trendy, upscale American Buddhism is very philosophical and seems to completely lack the ancestor worship of its Eastern practioners where they are considerably poorer; new age thought and Wikken ideas are the animisms of Western affluents, and they are quite different from their counter parts in Central America/Carribean which involve ritual sacrifice and "magic"; and flashy, mega-church, Prayer-of-Jabez toting American evangelicalism contrasts with "low-brow" charismatic Christianity that is popular in developing countries.

So if we seek a solution to our broader problem in the form of spirituality, which I agree is the solution, we have to look at the root or core ideas of any spiritual system (because that system will be manifest in culturally-dependent ways--as I tried to indicate above).

For me, despite the black marks on its history, I think the core idea of Christianity is the way to go. That core is forgiveness--unconditional forgiveness with no strings attached. (I'm not saying that other religions don't have a concept of forgiveness, only that I think the notion of forgiveness is more paramount in Christianity.)

As a Christian, the solution to me is that we must forgive each other for being selfish--including ourselves. We have been selfish toward the planet, too--but it's only been recently that we've known the true depths of our selfhishness and how it has scarred the environment.

The giving and recieving of forgiveness is what brings about the transformation that is needed to save us in the end.

Without forgiveness, every technological development, new political structure, or monetary policy simply becomes yet another tool for inflicting damage on each other and the planet.

My two-cents.

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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 16:09:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', ' ')the concept of humanity as a virus on this planet, or our current way of thinking as a 'disease' just seems wrong to me.


The metaphor is not meant to infer that we have a "disease."

In the medical field, treating the symptoms rather than the disease, is akin to treating the consequences rather than the cause.

Peak oil is a consequence caused by what?

Answer: Expectations of infinfite growth in a finite world, and developing a lifestyle and monetary system to support and facilitate that false premise.

Can can you support a sound premise with a false support system?

Of course not.

So, our monetary sysytem and our lifestyle must change to support that new sustainable paradigm, correct?
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 16:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', ' ')Buddhist thought, to me, is the paradym shift, Monte, whether practiced by Buddhists or not.

Our consumer society seeks to reinforce the habitual patterns through advertising and marketing.

Someone who practises mindfulness and awakes from the dream can find happiness in a simple flower arranged elegantly in a vase. Or can appreciate the wildness and wonder of nature without the filters. Or can find joy in simple acts of compassion to fellow beings.


Yes, I see no advertising and marketing in the future. The promotion of consumption will be frowned upon.

Your words here remind me of Henry David Thoreau and Walden's Pond.
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Re: Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 16:20:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scordry', 'S')o if we seek a solution to our broader problem in the form of spirituality, which I agree is the solution, we have to look at the root or core ideas of any spiritual system (because that system will be manifest in culturally-dependent ways--as I tried to indicate above).



Yes, but not roots based upon religious beliefs, but based upon the ecological principles and laws that govern all living things. The interconnectivity of all life.

The intricate web that Mother Nature weaves across this planet, startles and confuses us, one and all.
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