[mark]

How do we know? Really, how do we know anything? When I was first introduced to ‘peak oil’, I had to ask how to spell it. “What do you mean”, I replied, when I was sure I had heard correctly? It’s all over the media now; you don’t even have to look especially hard. Everyone is at least aware of the meaning of the word if not trying to understand the “problem”. But I’m still stuck on meanings, which has provoked a number of questions that I’ve not seen addressed elsewhere.

Is ‘peak oil’ a problem or is it really just a symptom? What about ‘peak water’ or ‘peak capitalism’ or ‘peak population’ or the granddaddy of them all, ‘peak civilization’? All have been called problems on this forum as well as elsewhere. Could these “problems” instead be symptoms? If so, what are they symptoms of? Could they all be symptomatic of the same thing? Should we not be trying to solve problems rather than symptoms? How can we hope to create solutions if we don’t clearly identify the problem?

My purpose here is to propose that what we’ve called problems are indeed symptoms. The real problem(s) facing us now is that we’ve created an unsustainable civilization. Natural resources are all in short supply now that 6.5 billion people need them to live the industrial life. Even more egregious is our empirelike arrogance thinking we have the right map and insist the rest of the world follow US. If the developing world had pursued a different route, the date of no return may have been delayed. However, that’s not the case. The rest of the world has tailed along and now we’re in competition with them for available resources. This has pushed up the point of no return to sometime in the near future, if indeed it has not already passed. The fact is the rest of the world cannot live as we do, even if energy efficiency is vastly improved. Hell, we can’t even live this way much longer. Can you imagine that we would be a better civilization if we had unlimited energy? Sure, and giving matches to children is a good idea! The capitalist approach, which demands everlasting growth in a finite world, is fundamentally flawed. It cannot last and will evolve or be replaced

It seems more likely each day that the world has now passed the point where intelligent efforts to correct the fundamental flaw can save us all. At least in the west the very discussion of our economic system never even takes place, after all, we “won” right? But the signs are all around for those unmoved by the mainstream western (propaganda) media. Dislocations of a worldwide magnitude are on the horizon. Even now events in France and Belgium (riots), Iraq and Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, Indonesia and especially the good ole’ US of A are foretelling very troubling times. However, don’t expect me to tell you how it’s going down; do you really think we can know the future?


I do see, in response to our various ‘symptoms’, a myopia that, sadly, only confirms my less than optimistic attitude. Everywhere we turn we see even our own spokesmen tackling the ‘problems’ (various though they be) without ever asking the obvious, “Have we identified the real problem”? As long as we’re focused on symptoms, how likely is it that we’re going to address the real problem – an unsustainable industrial civilization?

Do you really think we’re going to create solutions with the same mindset that got us into this mess?

Exactly how did we get ourselves so befuddled? Well, one answer is we simply followed our own best self-interest. This, according to economist, is supposed to result in a consumer utopia (as if this is all we are). And, for a while it does, if your only measure is production and consumption of material goods. But, all things have a cost. What has consumerism cost our human soul?

Religion has become, even for those who practice it, a once a week trip to church on Sunday morning, just before the big game (football, baseball, basketball). The backlash to this unsatisfying nature of ‘religion’ has spawned ‘spirituality’. If you care to, peruse the bookshelves of a “new age” book store and you’ll find all manner of weird, nonsensical, and bizarre ideas masquerading as ‘spirituality’. Even so, there’re crowded with people hungry for answers. We have become a generation of ‘lost souls’ seeking something that will give meaning to our barren ‘consumer’ lives.

Why is it so hard for people to discern truth from fiction? Why have so many people failed to see the obvious – creating a system of infinite needs on a on a world of finite resources is a recipe for disaster.

And what of the world outside the USA; is the rise of radical Islam a direct result of the invasive nature of our American culture? Does the capitalist corporation, ever seeking more and more markets, contrive to displace their competition in the developing world, thus guaranteeing a conflict with those who think differently than us? Should we be in the business of “opening” markets to our corporations in the interest of more profit? Are we so prescient as to know how others should live, think, and act? Why do we think other countries should act in our best interest? Have we not taken self-interest to the next level, affirming we have the right to act in our national interest, regardless of others?

We’ve learned from Jared Diamond and Joseph Taintor the process of collapse that has plagued empires throughout history. The difference this time is that the whole world is at risk; they’ve chosen to follow US. Or have they? Read John Perkins book where you’ll get a glimpse of the real economic warfare that impoverished third world nations, at least those whose resources we wanted. No, I don’t believe we’re going to “…go gentle into that good night”; we don’t deserve that. Those of us alive today will experience a worldwide crisis.

Although I’ve considered this topic for sometime now I didn’t want to post until I also had a solution. As mine is highly unusual I’d like your input first. You need not agree with my premise, which, stated briefly is that self-interest has led to capitalism, which is a superior system in the short term and a complete disaster in the long term. Capitalisms failure is producing symptoms such as peak oil, etc. A benumbed populace overfed on “cheese doodles” is clueless; and those who are aware are flailing at mere symptoms.

And I haven’t even gotten into actually defining the cause behind the real problem – to be revealed when cause and solution becomes one.

[Raxozanne]

In retrospect everyone agreed it was a bit foolish to build a global empire consisting of 6 billion humans on a non-renewable resource base...

[o2ny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you really think we’re going to create solutions with the same mindset that got us into this mess?

[Aqua]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('o2ny', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')

. As bleak as the situation looks, I believe these crises are exactly what we have been waiting for- a smack in the head that forces us to wake up from our collective trance...

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', '.')..At least in the west the very discussion of our economic system never even takes place, after all, we “won” right? But the signs are all around for those unmoved by the mainstream western (propaganda) media. Dislocations of a worldwide magnitude are on the horizon.
...
Exactly how did we get ourselves so befuddled? Well, one answer is we simply followed our own best self-interest. This, according to economist, is supposed to result in a consumer utopia (as if this is all we are). And, for a while it does, if your only measure is production and consumption of material goods. But, all things have a cost. What has consumerism cost our human soul?...

[gego]

When you have an equation, representing a real world function, it is difficult to say that one factor is more meaningful than others. Is the problem the population level, the polution produced by the population, the depletion of resources upon which the population is dependent, the social organization, or something else? And remember, you are viewing this problem from the point of view of mankind.

My own personal view is that we are on a living planet. We are the parasite, just as much as a virus or a worm is a parasite inside some of us. Parasites do not consider much what damage they do to the body upon which whey live. Clearly many humans have been destroyed by parasites, virus and bacterium. Clearly we blindly are sucking the life out of the earth. The earth is fighting back just like the human body does with chills and fever, and armies of specialized cells to fight off infection. Maybe plagues are really the white cells of the earth attempting to expell the out of control intruder.

If you think of the survival of the earth, then you should be cheering on its efforts to fight off the infection of men. Maybe we men should consider that we must live in balance with earth or the death of earth or our species will be in question. Considering that earth has fought off infection of many different species (look at what is extinct), I would say that mankind is fighting a losing battle. How absolutely absurd to think that 6.5 billion of us could live, much less some at such high levels of feeding upon the earth.

When you think that the word symptom indicates a sign of a disease, and you look at it from the point of view of the earth, then I think you could agree with the idea that, "I have seen the enemy, and he is I".

[MonteQuest]

mark,

Seems we were on the same wavelength.

I posted this yesterday:

Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

[mark]

Yes Monte, I saw your post a few days ago and decided to post my own without further rewrite. I can't seen to leave it alone, always making just one more change.

And to all others, thank for your reasoned replies. I'll be out of touch for a few days but will take your comments to heart while preparing my second post that tries to offer a "solution".

Truthfully, it's not a solution in the normal sense, more a way of thinking and living. I'm finding it's the hardest thing to put on paper.

Back next week.

mark

[Nike62]

Mark & Monte,

great posts, yours!
I cannot comment on them, because my lack of knowledge (and my bad english!), but I feel there is something very "basic", here.

What I (very vaguely) think, is: couldn't be that the intelligent life implies mechanisms inerently "unsustainable"?
Couldn't be that we don't have any other choice than to trip from a "balance point" to another?
In this case, we have to move into "unbalance", in order to "progress"...
Doing so, we don't (and cannot) have ANY KIND OF GUARANTEE, and, on the other hand, to stress on guarantee implies too much inertia...

I hope you could grasp what I mean!

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

"intelligent life implies mechanisms inerently "unsustainable"?"


I see your point but that doesn't have to be the case. There are plenty of examples in history of cultures who would make sure they didn't out-grow their environment. Of course they all had something in common, there wasn't millions upon millions of them. It can, and has been done in the past.

[Byron100]

Mark: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough I’ve considered this topic for sometime now I didn’t want to post until I also had a solution. As mine is highly unusual I’d like your input first. You need not agree with my premise, which, stated briefly is that self-interest has led to capitalism, which is a superior system in the short term and a complete disaster in the long term. Capitalisms failure is producing symptoms such as peak oil, etc. A benumbed populace overfed on “cheese doodles” is clueless; and those who are aware are flailing at mere symptoms.

And I haven’t even gotten into actually defining the cause behind the real problem – to be revealed when cause and solution becomes one.

[rs]

Those cultures who made sure they didn't outgrow their environment. Did they overshoot and pull back?

How do we do that on a global level? Is it possible to decide what our ecological footprint should be and ensure that well adhere to it. I would imagine for those in the West, this would mean a lifestyle significantly less comfortable than what we are used to now. What about those in the third world. Would their current lifestyle be less than the 'footprint' and if so, does that mean we have to somehow bring them up to it?

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rs', 'T')hose cultures who made sure they didn't outgrow their environment. Did they overshoot and pull back?

How do we do that on a global level? Is it possible to decide what our ecological footprint should be and ensure that well adhere to it. I would imagine for those in the West, this would mean a lifestyle significantly less comfortable than what we are used to now. What about those in the third world. Would their current lifestyle be less than the 'footprint' and if so, does that mean we have to somehow bring them up to it?

[mark]

Part II - Solutions

So now, have we got it right? That is, if Peak Oil is a symptom, what’s the real problem? Is it that Capitalism is a growth dependent model that is even now reaching its limits? Or is self-interest the real problem, the human equation which launched capitalism?

It is easy, in our search for answers, to conclude that we’ve found the cause behind the symptom. The short term success of capitalism has strengthened the ideal of self-interest. And it cannot be denied that in the short term capitalism is the most successful economic model yet devised, the associated symptoms of collapse only appearing in the long term. It is even suggested by some that self-interest somehow evolves to encompass an interest in all others through some process of transformation. I think a transformation takes place alright but in a different direction. Self-interest elevates the self above all others and its eventual path must ultimately lead to selfish interest, especially so in a world where man assumes his will is manifest. Mix selfish interest with the wealth accumulation that capitalism promotes and you have a society whose mantra is ‘get as much as you can anyway you can.’ Since capitalism is the most wealth producing model in the short term, self-interest, the ancestor of capitalism, gets elevated as the epitome of human ideals. In reality it’s just the opposite, as is only revealed in the long term. Guess where we are now?

So then, is self-interest the real problem?

We’re closer; we’re on the right track. We’ve identified a cause, self-interest, which birthed capitalism, which, in its death throes is producing symptoms. But, is conceiving an anecdote to self-interest the end of the story? Can we say that championing the other end of the spectrum of self-interest, which I’ll call Human-Interest, will solve all our problems? Well, it will certainly solve this problem, but can we be sure we’ve actually gotten to the bottom of it? I believe there’s more. Yes, Human-Interest will likely spawn a far more compassionate economic model; one that actually elevates mankind above mere consumption of goods and services. But what about the next highly complex problem; can we be certain that even the highest economic model will solve all our problems?

Well, now that I’ve put it like that, I think we can all agree that may not be the end of it. So, what’s the cause of it all? Indeed, if I were to ask this question out of context, would you not likely respond – God?

For those atheist and agnostics on the board I will pause here to address this issue, which is, Is there a God? One could certainly conclude from an examination of history that not only is there no God, but that all these various competing beliefs about “God” have afflicted mankind throughout our existence. A finite interpretation of history must assume that if there is a God he has certainly been lying down on the job. This position, however, is the result of a limited point of view. If one could instead have a broader, universe perspective, rather than a time bound, human outlook, one may actually observe the hand of God at work. I’ll just end this interlude by saying I was once in your shoes; if you would care to engage in more discussion on this matter, please PM me as I have already settled on the existence of God here.

If God is the cause of it all, why are things so screwed up? Well, now we’re beginning to ask the right questions. And if we ask the right questions we’re much more likely to get the right answers.

There’s this little matter of free will. God has placed us here, not as robots, to do as He wishes, but as free men, to do as we please. And, for a very, very long time, we have chosen to do as we please. It was not always thus. We even brag about it, illustrated by that old saying, “you got yourself into this mess, now get yourself out”. You see, there’s the rub – are you going to get yourself out of the mess with the same mind that got you into the mess? That’s the way mankind has operated for a very, very long time – trying to use the same mind that got him into his various “messes” to get himself out. How many times must we get slapped upside the head (messes) before we begin to ask, “Is there another way?” Apparently, a lot. To illustrate the point, join my atheist friend in a review of history. Civilization after civilization, different or not, simple or complex, the story is the same; we depend upon our own resources and eventually it comes to a bad end.

The truth is we are not designed to go it alone. Nor is the universe so arranged that we’re plopped down on this cinder and left to fend for ourselves. Help is all around, ready instantly to assist us in the mortal struggle for life. But, free will is one of the laws of the universe. No being will coerce or cajole another, even when it is in that mortals best interest. We must ask, and be sincere, and have faith.

It is time long passed we realize that mankind can and must choose the other way. We have too long chosen to exalt our own mind. We have come to believe that not only can we go it alone but that we must go it alone. That is not true, there is another way. Mankind, in partnership with God, will construct a world even beyond what our purely human mind can now conceive. Do you doubt that a finite mind in sync with the infinite would evolve a civilization of unsurpassed beauty, grandeur and elegance? I do not. It is ours for the asking; all we need is sincerity and faith. Will this make our problems go away? No, of course not, problems in life are a condition of life, but would you rather have help from the finite mind of man or the infinite mind of God

So, you may ask, why? Why do we have these symptoms masquerading as problems? Why do we dig to find reality, why so much effort to build this wonderful civilization (in so many ways the best that’s ever been) only to bring it down like those before us? Remember that donkey the old farmer had to slap upside the head to get its attention? Let me ask you, are you paying attention yet? What about you in France, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, are your paying attention? Do you think they’re paying attention in Washington? How about New York, you guys paying attention? It’s not just Nineveh any more, or Rome or especially the New American Empire. The whole world now worships at the feet of industrialism and change is going to take a response from the whole world.

That’s why I said in the beginning I have a solution for each one of us. Because that’s what it’s going to take, each and every one of us paying attention, saying, “OKAY, God, I got it and I’m listening.”

So forget peak oil and peak water and peak everything else, forget that you’re a christian, or jew, a muslim or an atheist. Forget that you’re an american or a brit, an aussie or a russian. Forget that you’re black or white or yellow or red –forget all that stuff that cries out for your attention - You Are a Human Being on the Planet Earth and we’re All in the same boat – and we’re All going to pay, one way or another, for our past indulgence in depending on the will of man. However, it doesn’t have to be this way forever. We can get it right this time. Now is an opportunity unique in all of human existence because now the whole world is involved. Isn’t it time we stop thinking of solving our current “mess” and start living the life of truth that’s been available to us all along?

No more empires, no more races, no more religions, no more of anything that separates us from

The truth of the Fatherhood of God and the fact of the Brotherhood of Man.

I am not so bold as to tell you how to do the above or how to live your life. You must find your own way. Each of us, doing what we can to live our life in truth, will have a far more positive effect on this world than any mere solution to any perceived problem. It’s time to recognize problems for what they really are, reminders that we’ve strayed from the path of truth. However, I will tell you that I’m doing the following:

1) Prayer and worship, especially worship.
2) Dedicate one’s will to doing Gods will.
3) And always remember the truth of the brotherhood of man and the fact of the Fatherhood of God.

You cannot know the truth without living the truth. Truth is revealed in the lives of God seeking and God conscious men and women

Part III next week

[Odin]

Yes, Peak oil is a symptom of a larger problem, two larger problems actually. One is overpopulation; I remember reading somewhere that for everybody to have a Western standard of living we would need 4 or 5 Earths. The other, especially here in the US, is wastefullness; we have an economic structure build around conspicuous consuption, using useless material things to satisfy emotional needs, and planned obselesence; we are propagandized by those who benefit from the capitalist system to beleive that more stuff leads to more happiness.