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What are the time tables for other natural resources to peak

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What are the time tables for other natural resources to peak

Unread postby TyroneTheTrader » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 00:10:35

What are the time tables for other natural resources to peak?
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 04:45:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TyroneTheTrader', 'W')hat are the time tables for other natural resources to peak?


I think it's a "It depends" scenario after the oil peak sets in to be just a matter of fact.

Electric cars? (Coal + Nuclear power is going to be needed to be increased by alot... or there can be high efficiency standards and all... or even conservation?)

What's going to replace natural gas? Electric as well? (Even more nuclear and coal.. conservation?)

It also depends on population increases and the economy as well... and the fact that there are 2 billion chinese (or so) going for the American Dream or whatever...

Of course, the nuclear power people will say that uranium (and thorium) will have 1000's of years with the latest technology.. But, I don't know about that (maybe it will last beyond my lifetime.. that's what most people think about anyways when they hear anything more than '200' years.)

It depends on how the world reacts as whole to this whole 'oil peaking' thing too.
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby Windmills » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 11:45:10

As for nuclear fuels, the projections for extending their life aren't based on "the latest technology," which makes it sound as if it's a new, flash-in-the-pan, unproven idea. They're based on mature, proven technology that's been in use for about 50 years. The first power reactor in the United States was a breeder reactor, the type that extends the nuclear fuel supply well beyond just the once-through use of uranium-235. Nothing new needs to be researched or developed to put everything in place to create a longer-term nuclear power scenario. It's merely a matter of political will and the underlying factors that can generate that will.
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 00:55:40

This thread has been suprisingly quiet given all the posts about overshoot and how we just hit another limit if not oil yada dada. Easier to do qualitative arm waving than give dates.

I guess you can start here: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby peripato » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:23:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'T')his thread has been suprisingly quiet given all the posts about overshoot and how we just hit another limit if not oil yada dada. Easier to do qualitative arm waving than give dates.

I guess you can start here: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/

What difference does it make when cadmium or nickel peaks once the cheap fossil fuel infrastructure that underpins their production dissapears?
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:58:27

Coal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035

At current rate. Sooner if we shift more to coal or coal to liquids.
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 03:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')oal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035

At current rate. Sooner if we shift more to coal or coal to liquids.


I don't see anything about peak coal in the EIA AEO 2004. What's the page number?
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby jato » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 03:50:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')IA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060


I would suspect that a curve was constructed using the EIA numbers. The curve showing a peak in 2060. I believe that 2060 is at current consumption levels. I imagine coal would peak sooner if its use grows between now and 2060.
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 04:10:49

Coal's URR will probably be larger than cumulative production + proved reserves, so using the one trillion ton figure will result in too early a peak. Does anyone have info on coal reserves over time? It is probably moot anyway since carbon emissions are more likely to limit coal use than resources, but interesting nonetheless.
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Re: What are the time tables for other natural resources to

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 07:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'T')his thread has been suprisingly quiet given all the posts about overshoot and how we just hit another limit if not oil yada dada. Easier to do qualitative arm waving than give dates.

I guess you can start here: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/

What difference does it make when cadmium or nickel peaks once the cheap fossil fuel infrastructure that underpins their production dissapears?


Not to be funny here but Cadmium is used in fission power controll rods and nickle is used in stainless steel fuel cladding for fast neutron reactors.
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