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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 11:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell $30 a barrel is about half of what we have been paying over the past few months and typical of what we have been paying for at least the last 2 years or more. The economy has been improving the entire time during this time so I would have to say - not much really.


1) What Monte said.

2) You realize that thrice only applies so long as supply stays within a narrow band. If it strays out of that band, then energy becomes much more expensive very quickly. So let me ask a different question--what effect do you think paying ten times, twenty times, fifty times as much for energy will have on the economy? Also, do you think people, in the numbers in which they exist today, will survive without an economy?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby oilmangonegreen » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 13:29:57

Why has everyone suddenly started thinking in terms of dollars? All I was trying to say is that there is no point in exploiting tar sands/shales (or anything else) if the energy required for extraction is equal to or more than the energy obtained by extraction. And it doesn't matter whether the energy required for extraction is from oil, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, whatever. It's mad to continue if energy input > energy output ... we'd be better off using that energy directly for other purposes. Whether the value of oil is 10 dollars/barrel (sorry, no dollar sign on my Norwegian computer) or 100 dollars/barrel is irrelevant. But then, I'm an engineer, not an economist.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 13:47:00

No, there are reasons why we might, on a modest scale, wish to continue to extract oil or some analagous resource even if it's a net energy loser. For instance, if by some miracle our agricultural system holds up over the next 2 decades, and we still have a need to ship produce thousands of miles to market, we might sink quite a lot of energy into getting the oil necessary to run the trucks/trains/whatever to do that, even if we lose energy. Now, we wouldn't do this if we could use whatever energy source we used to get oil to transport food. But if we can't, then we would be harvesting shale oil and happily.

But will we try to power all industry with it? Hardly. Dollars are important under both scenarios.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 14:54:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilmangonegreen', 'W')hy has everyone suddenly started thinking in terms of dollars? All I was trying to say is that there is no point in exploiting tar sands/shales (or anything else) if the energy required for extraction is equal to or more than the energy obtained by extraction. And it doesn't matter whether the energy required for extraction is from oil, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, whatever. It's mad to continue if energy input > energy output ... we'd be better off using that energy directly for other purposes. Whether the value of oil is 10 dollars/barrel (sorry, no dollar sign on my Norwegian computer) or 100 dollars/barrel is irrelevant. But then, I'm an engineer, not an economist.
Oilmangonegreen, if there are uses for the resource that can't be replaced by other resources, then it will be considered worth it to use more energy extracting the resource than the resource represents in energy. Oil is used for more than fuel and some types of fuel are not easily replaced by other sources.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:12:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilmangonegreen', 'W')hy has everyone suddenly started thinking in terms of dollars? All I was trying to say is that there is no point in exploiting tar sands/shales (or anything else) if the energy required for extraction is equal to or more than the energy obtained by extraction. And it doesn't matter whether the energy required for extraction is from oil, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, whatever. It's mad to continue if energy input > energy output ... we'd be better off using that energy directly for other purposes. Whether the value of oil is 10 dollars/barrel (sorry, no dollar sign on my Norwegian computer) or 100 dollars/barrel is irrelevant. But then, I'm an engineer, not an economist.


I think the discussion has turned to price because to leave it to a pure EROEI is deceiving to say the least. For example, if something that produces a good amount of oil by using an energy source that is more abundant and cheaper than that oil, the energy required could be high but the end result is a product that is not only more profitable but in shorter supply.

For example, if a lot of the “energy” to extract and produce oil from say Tar Sands or Oil Shale comes from natural gas, coal or electricity (which is considerably cheaper than oil/gas as a source of energy), the EROEI ratio could be very close to 1:1 but the end product (oil) could still be sold for a profit and still be considerably higher than the total amount of oil that went into the process. I only use Tar Sands and Oil Shale as an example so please, do not focus on that part of the argument. I guess a better example would be coal to oil liquefaction where electricity is the major energy source in getting the coal out of the ground and natural gas is the major energy source in heating the coal. These energy sources are considerably less expensive that the resulting product – synthetic oil yet the EROEI on this process is not the best out there. But when talking about how much fossil fuel is required vs. how much you get out, the ratio is much, much larger.
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