[MonteQuest]

Is peak oil the "tip of the iceberg?"

How many see peak oil as a symptom of a greater disease? The "tip of the iceberg" expression is derived from the fact that icebergs float because the density of ice is lower than that of seawater. The ratio of these densities tells us that 7/8 of the iceberg's mass must be below water.

The mass below the surface of peak oil is the expectations of infinite growth in a finite world. Driving this false premise is a debt-based monetary system that services past debt only with future growth. Changing the cultural direction and asset inertia behind this is tantamount to trying to turn the Titanic on a dime. Never happen; no matter how hard you try.

So, the transition we need to do is not from fossil fuels to renewables, but from an infinite growth mindset to one of sustainability based upon the received solar flux and the earth’s ability to absorb our impact through the environmental sinks. We are already burdened with un-repayable debt, unbridled population growth, rampant environmental toxicity, increasing loss of biodiversity, scarcity of resources, and alarming reports of increased global warming; all consequences of our collective hubris. We need to address all of these issues, not just energy production.

On the other hand, how many see peak oil as just another problem to be solved by man’s ingenuity? His course is sound, he just needs a new energy source to “stay the course”. Tomorrow the stars with JD?

For those inclined to believe it is the latter seem to propose solutions that are “conserve, transition, and continue to grow”.

One of our newest members recently asked:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I')n terms of those who believe we can "switch and grow", I would just ask, until when? The potable water runs out? The uranium/coal runs out? Arable land to support growing population runs out?

On the other hand, if we realize, as many others have said before, that there are limits to growth, what kind of an economic can we develop that is based on sustainability? Interest/debt based is impossible, so we must look to other examples.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nything else just pushes the day of reckoning into the future and makes the cliff steeper, unless you continue to believe there are no limits.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')Same old tired rehashed crap from montequest.

[jato]

Until humans can live peacefully with one another and stop multiplying like virus, all of the other science fiction fantasy will never happen (mirrors in space, fusion, googlegigawatts of solar panels, terra-forming, warp speed, improbability drive, time travel, etc.) It is quite easy to see that people will continue to war with each other and multiply.

I am convinced that we will soon hit our limit and experience a of die-off. I suspect the die-off will be caused by our fellow man in the form of resource conflict/war/control. If by some miracle we behave ourselves then resource depletion will take care of our bloated population.

I give credit to JohnDenver for dreaming up a prosperous future for humanity. But our past and present dictate our future behavior. Just this last century, in the continent of Europe, millions of humans murdered each other. This century, the stage is set for even more carnage.

The 21st century will see the fall of man, but not the extinction.

[Dezakin]

But its all the same. Its a meandering diatribe of the whole of the Montequest position thats been stated over and over in every one of the universe according to Montequest threads.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). They must address population growth.

[MonteQuest]

Next?

[MicroHydro]

The Limits to Growth folks were right in 1972 and are even more right now. But no one will be convinced until after the crash. As long as the "demand destruction" is confined to places like Nicaragua, Zimbabwe, and Indonesia, the OECD nations can party on for a good while.

At the moment NZ is at the peak of prosperity. The currency is strong. Unemployment is 2%, home prices up over 15% since last year, shiny new homes and shopping centers are going up everywhere. My office mate can't wait to buy a V8 motorcar. Ninety five percent of the population here is not interested in tomorrow, they are enjoying today too much.

[Colorado-Valley]

Hey, I've been thinking about this stuff for a long time, Monte, even before John Denver sang his songs about the Rockies.

We are going to have to go through something ... something that will shock humanity out of its complacency. Perhaps it means hitting the wall at full speed, and then hoping that the survivors will understand what they hit, and that they will learn from that experience to live life more simply, more nobley, more beautifully, and within the context of nature.

In the late '70s I had high hopes that Buddhist thought would come to North America, and we would learn how to conduct ourselves properly in the world.

A lot of people hoped that, but we were wrong.

[Raxozanne]

Yes, its the tip of the iceberg of exponential growth.

If the oil wall is pushed back we will just smash into the potable water one first instead. Take your pick either way it won't be pretty.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, its the tip of the iceberg of exponential growth.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t has been man’s hubris to think he need not heed the ecological limits that has led him to this precipice.

[Jam1eSc0tland]

Hi Colorado-Valley,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the late '70s I had high hopes that Buddhist thought would come to North America, and we would learn how to conduct ourselves properly in the world

[linlithgowoil]

no idea. however, i do not believe in die-off at all or in the olduvai theory etc.

and wishing for the whole population of the world to suddenly decide to abandon economic growth is insane. that cant and wont ever happen.

population growth - its so ironic when people talk about this being the problem, even though they would likely never have existed if their policies were already in place. as usual its - 'other people need to be culled - leaving more of the pie for the enlightened ones such as me who will of course be spared because we are too valuable'.

the human race will be extinct at some point, so what is the point in trying to preserve things? and anyway, the earth is only in a transient period at the moment - all species will be lost from earth in a billion years or so when the moon recedes and the earth starts to tilt violently on its axis, plus there's asteroids, etc. and the sun eventually engulfing us. we're fucked either way, and everybody is going to die.

[Ludi]

linlithgowoil, you're going to die some day, so why bother trying to be healthy and staying alive today? Why not just curl up and die?

I haven't seen very many people advocate "culling" humans, so I don't know where that comes from in the discussion of overpopulation. Just a straw man I guess.

[killJOY]

It's a pity to see these boards become a bilious dumping ground for discontent.


We got a problem on our hands, and all people know how to do is attack, attack, attack.

Gives ya great hope for the future, doesn't it?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I')t's a pity to see these boards become a bilious dumping ground for discontent.


We got a problem on our hands, and all people know how to do is attack, attack, attack.

Gives ya great hope for the future, doesn't it?

[azreal60]

Here is the problem as i see it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') could post some of my ideas and enter the debate, but it's a waste of time. If you agree with Monte you get a pat on the back, if you disagree you just get chopped off.

[gary_malcolm]

I'll believe growth is only loosely connected to energy when you show me a definition of economic growth that that is apart from building, paving, plowing, boiling, smelting, soldering, exploding, rolling, scraping... I could go on.

So when Devscradrooble or whatever your name is shows me the new Multi Planetary Mirror Solar Death Star I'll stop worrying about petroleum depletion.

You folks are so blind I don't know why anyone even bothers.

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Again assumes that the economy will stop growing, which hasnt been demonstrated. It has been demonstrated that we wont run out of nuclear fuels for 'quite some time' meaning at least ten thousand years.

[dunewalker]

According to Azreal, Montequest is "...just a good writer with a good topic"

I think there is much more to it than "just" that. Montequest exhibits a rare understanding in being able to observe the planet as an ecologist, linking seemingly un-related events. Some visitors to this site, including myself, at times have bristled at his somewhat arrogant presentations--this undermines our ability to fully comprehend his ideas. I don't know where Montequest got his education/training/life experiences, but a lot of his views are similar to mine. Humility and grace added to confident knowlege = wisdom = ability to persuade/convince.