[Chris_B]

Have you ever heard of the phenomenon they call "singularity". It suggests that technology doubles, for example, after 50 years and tehn after 25 and then after 12.5 and so on and so on. So, you get to a point where technology basically goes to infinity. Reading about these y shaped bunkie balls made me think of that. If you look it up you can find a better explanation then I can provide. Pretty interesting stuff though. Oh yes, also, something like 4 years after reaching the speed of the human brain (which some people expect by as early as 2010, or as late as 2030) is when computer speed goes to infinity.

[UIUCstudent01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chris_B', 'H')ave you ever heard of the phenomenon they call "singularity". It suggests that technology doubles, for example, after 50 years and tehn after 25 and then after 12.5 and so on and so on. So, you get to a point where technology basically goes to infinity. Reading about these y shaped bunkie balls made me think of that. If you look it up you can find a better explanation then I can provide. Pretty interesting stuff though. Oh yes, also, something like 4 years after reaching the speed of the human brain (which some people expect by as early as 2010, or as late as 2030) is when computer speed goes to infinity.

[Chris_B]

True enough, you can only believe so much you read. Singularity is kinda cool to think about though. But think of this nano y shape transistor thing like this. you could put 100 4ghz prosessors in the same space as you could put 1 conventional prossesor. I remeber reading something onetime about if you take 1mm off the side of a prossor chip it reduces the time it takes by some amount, does anybody know the amount? i think it was quite a bit.

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UIUCstudent01', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chris_B', 'H')ave you ever heard of the phenomenon they call "singularity". It suggests that technology doubles, for example, after 50 years and tehn after 25 and then after 12.5 and so on and so on. So, you get to a point where technology basically goes to infinity. Reading about these y shaped bunkie balls made me think of that. If you look it up you can find a better explanation then I can provide. Pretty interesting stuff though. Oh yes, also, something like 4 years after reaching the speed of the human brain (which some people expect by as early as 2010, or as late as 2030) is when computer speed goes to infinity.

[Dezakin]

Its kinda impossible for me to make any predictions further out than a century, because its fairly clear to me that within 50-70 years we'll develop human level AI. If we don't figure out how to do it from the top down, we'll just scan in neural patterns of human brains and simulate them in software. Take one smart guy, make a zillion virtual copies of him and make him write software, design bridges, try to sell you designer clothes you dont need.

I don't know if it will be the terminator scenario or the cybernetic utopia scenario or just more of the same boring world with more tech, but very quickly you get machines with minds of gods that start eating the solar system.

Its one of the reasons I find issues such as ecology totally irrelevant to any discussion on the future of humanity, and it makes such arguments about ecological limits difficult for me to contribute to. I have to assume that humans will remain biological entities with essentially static technology for centuries, which clearly isn't true.

[Ayoob]

What I was getting at wasn't the computer speed progression, although it would be cool to play Halo on a ten billion ghz computer... I'm more thinking of the electrical transmission lines we would need to turn the Dakotas into a WindArabia and Arizona, NM, SoCal, and most of Texas into Solar Saudi America. Given electrical vehicles and super-efficient transmission lines like these appear to be, we're out of the dark. We're fine. Which is great, cause then we'll be fighting over food and water instead of oil pretty soon...

Anyway, it looks like Smalley got his shizzle together and actually built the thing. Warning to the Doomerz: Y'all may be wrong. I guess we'll see if this gets deployed before our economy is pushing up the daisies. Lots of jobs for people to run cable pretty soon, lots of jobs for solar farm installers, lots of jobs for wind power installations, etc. Maybe this pushes back the day quite a bit. I guess we'll look back on this in ten or fifteen years and say, You know, we actually pulled it off, didn't we.

[Dezakin]

Please dont discount nuclear. While I expect solar power to eventually be inexpensive enough to displace most nuclear generation capacity, nuclear is competitive with fossil today and we can illustrate that there is enough nuclear fuel for millinea to fuel all of civilization.

Which is why I use nuclear in my arguments against the doomers; Not because I expect nuclear to dominate the energy market in a century, (I expect solar will) but because it is possible for nuclear to do it today.

[Omnitir]

Here’s a more detailed link about the recent breakthrough in nanotubes:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-08/uota-utd081505.php

Possibly the technology breakthrough of the decade. This is amazing, they can now produce nanotube sheets up to 7 meters per minute. It was only a few months ago I was trying to tell people in some thread that the space elevator theory has the potential to save us all and was shot down by narrow-minded people who said that it would take decades to produce anything more then a few centimetres at a time. And here we are now with the ability to make a nanotube ribbon long enough to reach geosynchronous orbit in less then 2 years.

The only hurdle left is to strengthen the material as it is currently inappropriate for such a task as a space cable. But that is merely a matter of time, as producing large enough sheets was the big hurdle. So in less then a decade we just may be able to get all the free solar energy we want from space.

Oh, and for people that don’t care about anything so grand as space development, there are of course many other applications of this technology.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Multifunctional applications like nanotube sheets that simultaneously store energy and provide structural reinforcement for a side panel of an electrically powered vehicle also are promising.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen I was a highschool student I met Dr. Smalley. He gave a nice lecture to my group visiting Rice Univ on his work.

[DomusAlbion]

of cancer at the age of 62.

http://www.nano.gov

[Ayoob]

We hardly knew ye.

[Aaron]

A true loss...

My condolences.

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')esides being a famous chemist, Smalley was also a keen observer of energy issues. Energy Bulletin posted a good excerpt a while ago from a paper by Smalley called "Future global energy prosperity: the Terawatt Challenge" (pdf) which looked at peak oil and the top 10 global challenges. Energy topped his list of the challenges facing us (he noted "energy is the key to solving all of the rest of the problems—from water to population"), with the others as follows:

1. Energy
2. Water
3. Food
4. Environment
5. Poverty
6. Terrorism and war
7. Disease
8. Education
9. Democracy
10. Population

Smalley's comments on peak oil:

There are three core problems that I think the president ought to address, all of which are connected with and impinge on the major issue of energy prosperity: inspiring the next generation of U.S. scientists and engineers, developing replacements for the dwindling fossil fuel resources that have provided a majority of our energy in the past, and finding a solution to global warming.

At some point, almost certainly within this decade, we will peak in the amount of oil that is produced worldwide. Even though there will be massive amounts of oil produced for the rest of this century, the volume produced each year will never again reach the amount produced at its peak. This year, 2005, might very well end up being the historic date of that global peak. Oil, along with gas, is tremendously important. The history of oil is basically the history of modern civilization as we have known it for the past 100 years. As our principal transportation fuel, oil has been the basis of our country’s power and prosperity. What will we do when there is no longer enough oil and gas? We do not yet have an answer.

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/

[Aaron]

http://websitedesignsolutions.net/images/smalley.wmv

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'h')ttp://websitedesignsolutions.net/images/smalley.wmv

[Aaron]

I wish... that is the cleaned up version...

[EnviroEngr]

Trust me.

We did everything we could.

[NEOPO]

dial up sucks....
could someone DL that and put it on a disk and drop it in the mail for me please?

Ok heres a good idea.

After watching Mr bartletts c-span address to congress (VIDEO DOWNLOAD) and listening to Matt simmons radio show with puplava (AUDIO DOWNLOAD) etc etc.....

www.peakoil.com should offer a cd collection of all the relevant video and audio tracks.
Cds are cheap - most of these shows are not copyrighted and plenty of us are on dial up making it hard to impossible to DL huge video or audio tracks with good quality.

It would make presentations about PO to friends and family much easier.
People would rather watch then listen, listen then read.

I am sure most of us would go for a cd like this for $5 or $10.
Make it happen!!

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'm')ost of these shows are not copyrighted

[EnviroEngr]

In Memory.