[Free]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', 'F')ree, don't get me wrong. I'm not completely sold on the idea of simplistic analogies either - although they can be useful in the right context (i.e. where a specific complex point is hard to explain succinctly).

My main worry, is that governments are probably already briefing spin teams to go on the defensive about the crisis, for that unhappy day when public interest in the issue actually crosses the apathy threshold.

Whatever your country, ministers will be martialled and out there on the airwaves; telling us 'it's not a problem' and that 'this is scaremongering - there's plenty of oil for the next hundred years'. One of the ways they achieve this, is by determining a simple, repetitive message - and hammering it home repeatedly for all its worth. 'Saddam's WMD' being a recent case in point. The oft-repeated lie eventually becoming the 'truth'.

What we need to be doing now, is to prepare and come up with short, pithy retorts to the lies, for the time when verbal combat for hearts and minds begins in earnest on the radio phone-ins and tv talk shows. A sort of shorthand, that conveys the central messages in ways that eventually displace the need to repetitively labour over excessive detail.

Granted, people need to be aware of the issues before sloganeering can have any sort of reinforcing effect, but it seems to me it's the simple, repeated lines that ultimately do all the work.

Is there any consensus out there what our 'bulleted points' should be?

[Rose]

Howdy All!!!

I am new to all of this Peak Oil Stuff. Iam reading Crossing the Rubicon and bought the video The End of Suburbia after reading After the Oil Crash.

In my surfing of the Internet I have come across a product that helps with all of this dependence on oil stuff. I have a small temporary but potentially very powerful solution that very vehcile inthe US can use now and start saving gas=oil. It is a gas catalyst that was developed 9+ years ago to curb gas emissions. It is now being marketed for the average citizen!!!

I am half way through my testing if it really works and it does. I get 2 miles per gallon more in my van. I have 200 more miles to use this to see if I get any more increase. This company offers a money-back guarantee with this product too. It is really great. I know we still need to switch but if everyone in the world used this then we would have more oil and time to use it up and institute solutions!! HAHAHAH.

Anyway, I am happy to have found a solution that I use every time I drive. This product does a lot of stuff but I know I am helping with global Warming too saving $300 a year and.... like this is a no brainer.

Check it out: www.rmarschall.myextremeresearch.com

Watch the videos and decide for yoruself. I am happy!!!

Blessings,

[Pops]

Come on Rose, if you want to promote a product, buy an ad – don’t claim you found it on the internet and it really works - especially when your email and the wonder-site’s email are the same.

Jeez!

(hopefully this post will be allowed to stay up a while to allow other wannabe spammers to learn something - we need lots more serious folks like you)

[EnviroEngr]

Pops,

The thread stays while Rose explains her motivations, plans for the future and what she/he hopes to accomplish on our Boards.

You will kindly do so, will you not, Rose?

[bobcousins]

I am not sure it is a good analogy, but an image sprang to mind. Peak Oil is like one of those guys who have a bungee rope tied to their back, then they have to run down a track. I am sure you have seen it on Gladiator.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

You want another kind analogy. Peak oil follows the same arc as the response of a multiple-staged resistor-capacitor network.



Production is the green curve:


Once the input stimulus (i.e. oil discoveries) disappears, its only a matter of time before the electrical charge (i.e. oil) dissipates.

http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/1 ... shock.html

[donshan]

Learning About Growth and Depletion

A young professional couple living in a McMansion in Phoenix, AZ read about Peak Oil and they are worried. They have some cash, a lot of equity in their house, but are not self sufficient. They discover an old ranch out in the desert with a verv good well that produces 10,000 gallons of water a month. They get an idea. "We can sell our house, buy this ranch and start a small fruit orchard using irrigation water from the well- grow our own garden too." They do it.

Year 1- The well produces the 10,000 gallons as advertised.
They figure they need
2000 gal of water for the house and garden
At 100 gal of water per tree they plant 50 trees = 5000 gal
They figure they can start a road side fruit stand and sell enough fruit to pay taxes and get by with just 25 trees, but plant 50 to have extra cash.
That leaves 3000 gal of water for a swimming pool. The fun life begins.

What they don't know is the exponential law.
As the trees grow, each year they require 5% more water. They also did not know that as they pumped water from this well at 10,000 gallons a month, the local water table drops and they get 10% less water each year. ( There are small rounding errors in the following calculations)

Year 2-The well produces only 9000 gal. Trees need 105 gal each.
The trees now take 5250 gal and they notice they can't wash the car as often as there is only a 1750 gal surplus

Year-3.The well produces only 8100 gal. Trees need 110 gal each.
The trees now take 5513 gal and the surplus is down to 588 gal. They tear out the swimming pool. Shorter showers too.

Year-4 The well produces only 7290 gal. Trees need 116 gal each
The trees now take 5788 gal, and there is a shortage of water for the garden. They cut the house water down to 1502 gal. They divert grey waste water to the garden.

Year-5 The well produces only 6561 gal. Trees need 122 gal each
The trees now take 6078 gal. That is only 456 gal for the house. They garden will have to be small, but their fruit stand is making money. They can buy some extra food.

Year-6 The well produces only 5905 gal. Trees need 128 gal each
The trees will need 6381 gal with NONE for the house. They cut down 7 trees leaving 43 trees( needing only 5488 gal)and 417 gal for the house.

Year-7 The well produces only 5314 gal. Trees need 134 gal each
They learn about the exponental law. If you divide the percent into 70 you get the doubling time, or in this case the time to drop by about half. Divide 10% into 70 and it is 7 years.
They cut down more trees leaving 37( 4858 gal) leaving 456 gal for the house.

Year- 8. The well produces only 4783 gal. Trees need 141 gal each
They cut down more trees leaving 31 (4362 gal) leaving 421 gal for the house

Year-9. The well produces only 4309 gal. Trees need 148 gal each
They cut down more trees leaving only 27 (3989 gal) leaving only 320 gal for the house

Year-10. They get out their old PC and do the math using an Excel spreadsheet. They realize it is hopeless. This year they will not have enough trees to grow enough fruit to sell in order to pay the taxes.

They sell their Ranch. They lost their McMansion, their equity, and their dream. They came out of it wiser and knowing about the effects of exponential growth and exponential depletion.

They learned about Peak Oil the hard way. Increasing percent demand colliding with reduced percent supply except this time it is Peak Water.

In this simplified example I just used simple arithmetic to approximate the answers. ( I realize there are more precise formulas in Excel for this calculation, but I tried to keep this idea simple)

Well Water = previous year *0.9
Water for trees = no of trees * (gal/tree previousyear * 1.05)

Total water used = total water for trees + house water which must be less than well produces.

Let some economist tell that well that the couple's "demand" for water was enough for 50 trees- It should deliver enough to meet demand. I had a well like this one once. It did not give a damn about our water needs! Local water was limited by fractures in hard rock