Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Oil production outlook 2005-2040

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby Taskforce_Unity » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 06:55:04

I don't know out of my head. Ill take a look later today. Can you point out the exact products that can be made from NGL and what cannot be made from NGL (i don't know actually...)
User avatar
Taskforce_Unity
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 479
Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Holland

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby SlipperySlope » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 09:51:46

From the Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_liquids

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')atural gas liquids are the liquids that, combined with methane, form natural gas. The liquids consist of ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and natural gasoline These liquids are used as petrochemical feedstocks, home heating fuels and refinery blending.
User avatar
SlipperySlope
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed 18 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Austin, Texas USA

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby Taskforce_Unity » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 17:44:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SlipperySlope', 'G')iven the lesser importance of Natural Gas Liquids with regard to a peak in petroleum transportation fuels, I wonder what the effect on the peak oil date would be if NGLs were removed from the model?


When looking at the period 2005-2010 I have these numbers when substracting the 1st quarter 2005 NGL production + NGL oil projects:

End 2005 - 75910
End 2006 - 77260
End 2007 - 78703
End 2008 - 80140
End 2009 - 80596

Since I don't have a lot of NGL projects in my list It does not influence the outcome that much.
User avatar
Taskforce_Unity
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 479
Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Holland

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby 0mar » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 19:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') don't know out of my head. Ill take a look later today. Can you point out the exact products that can be made from NGL and what cannot be made from NGL (i don't know actually...)


It's all organic chemistry. The yields will be different from crude oil and the overall cost might be lower or higher, but if you really wanted to, you could make anything from NGL that you can make from petrol.
Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
User avatar
0mar
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1499
Joined: Tue 12 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Davis, California

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby SlipperySlope » Thu 17 Nov 2005, 22:49:53

Taskforce_Unity, thanks so much for the analysis minus NGL. If it does not impact the peak date range much then we can more easily observe production statistics issued by the various authorities: OPEC, IEA, EIA, etc., which include their own (possibly differing) definitions of fuel liquids.

You have performed a great public service on gathering the data, and developing your analysis. In particular the inclusion of the underlying data allows constructive criticism and reuse by alternative modelers.

It's possible that billions of dollars of future commerical investment and public expenditure might be influenced for the better by your report - I sure hope so!
User avatar
SlipperySlope
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed 18 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Austin, Texas USA

Re: Oil production outlook 2005-2040

Postby Taskforce_Unity » Sat 19 Nov 2005, 09:38:36

I am not sure if my NGL project list is complete though. Cera apparently had a more extensive list of NGL projects. I couldn't find a lot in the public databases (and I looked really hard :razz:). Anyway having read Simmons his comments on the CERA report (he has the report, far too expensive for me), I now think that this report is just pure bunk with a political intention.

Bottom up fields analysis my a***. :roll:
User avatar
Taskforce_Unity
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 479
Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Holland

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron